(Coll FB) Notes - 2025

**Eddy Munny** · 06-22-25, 05:31 PM

Why exactly is Texas overrated? They also lost a lot of players heading into 2024 and yet still made the playoff semifinals. Who didn't lose a lot of players? Ohio State lost a lot as well... Texas is a program that reloads, not rebuilds, as evidenced by their #1 ranked recruiting class of 2025.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-22-25, 08:50 PM

Bump. Honestly don't plan on betting much this season. Just some recreational bets.

One trend that I believe = the widening gap between:
a) Major
b) Mid-Major, and
c) FCS.

In college sports the NIL money means that good players are taking the most $$. I think 2024 Boise will be the best mid-major we see for a while.
...Greg McElroy made the case that Major teams should no longer play vs FCS. And he's right. Those games are gulf-in-class and prove nothing.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-23-25, 05:10 AM

First play of the year = (8/30) 1* Texas +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Despite my comments (above). I just think this # will be value by kickoff.
...TEX is going to be ranked very high (if not #1). Arch Manning may be the #2 Heisman choice behind Klubnik CLEM.
...Ohio St off a National title win. Lot of player/coach transition.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-23-25, 05:30 AM

Klatt's Top 25 preview. Pretty nice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP8aY_JlJBI

23) IOWA - SoDakSt QB Gronowski transfers in. He's MUCH better than the recent Hawkeye QBs.

3) Ohio St - Buckeyes lose 14 draft picks (and both Coord). Two name returnees: WR Smith, DB Downs.

2) Texas - Klatt thinks that Arch is a clear upgrade over Ewers. Horns are now killing it in recruiting.

1) Penn St - I'm a little surprised he has Penn St over Texas. Not a big believer in the QB/HC. Lose a stud DE/TE.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-23-25, 10:23 AM

On that Klatt list, he has South Carolina at #11.
...I have to rate South Carolina as OVER-rated. Too high at #11.
...South Carolina doesn't have a ton of history. Fertile recruiting ground. But they often miss out to Georgia (or Clemson).
...I can't believe people are pumping QB Sellers this hard. If Sellers had any calm, they would have beaten Alabama last year.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-27-25, 09:36 PM

Phil Steele Coll FB annual is out. Was reading it at the Bookstore.

*One note on these early-season lines. Openers aren't always that sharp.
...But man, they move fast!
...Saw one game that I wanted to play. Too late. # had moved four points by the time I got home.

Might play a few games. But this stuff is really recreational.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-28-25, 01:48 PM

One more opinion on the 2025 CollFB landscape: *I think the gap from Major to Mid-Major will be huge going fwd.
...You won't see Mid-Majors as strong as 2024 Boise going fwd.
...Marshall's roster was decimated. HC went to SoMiss. And he took half the roster w/ him.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-28-25, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

First play of the year = (8/30) 1* Texas +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Despite my comments (above). I just think this # will be value by kickoff.
...TEX is going to be ranked very high (if not #1). Arch Manning may be the #2 Heisman choice behind Klubnik CLEM.
...Ohio St off a National title win. Lot of player/coach transition.

I'm happy with this play. Some reasons:
*OhioSt was built to be a Super Team in 2024. Guys turned down the NFL, transfers brought in.
*Massive turnover this year (14 NFL draft picks). Buckeyes lose: OC/DC, QB, top two RBs, #2 WR, and three Off Linemen.
*8 of the top 10 tacklers depart on Defense. And the Kicker struggled late in 2024.
*Texas (under Sarkisian) has recruited well. Horns are actually better equipped to re-load.
*QB Arch got game experience last year. Most analysts view the TEX Offense as more explosive w/ Arch (than Ewers).
*The Arch sentiment is coming. +3 will dip (IMHO). +3 should look like value versus the # @ kickoff.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-29-25, 02:05 PM

1* Nevada +45 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Penn St is going to be ranked either #1 or #2 in the first poll. Nittany Lions will be very pricy.
...Nitts return top two RBs. But I don't put a lot of stock on that position.
...I put more emphasis on losing two linch-pin players: TE Warren and DE Carter.
...Carter was a top draft-pick. Warren was (by far) Allar's top receiving target.
...By HOW MUCH was Warren Allar's top-target? Nitt WRs did not record a catch in the loss to Not Dame!
...Not a believer in QB Allar. Don't view him as a dynamic player.
...What redeeming value does NEV have in the big-dog role? QB Purdy is a tfr from Nebraska and now healthy.
...Nevada is under-valued. HC Choate is pretty good. And they lost seven games last year by 7 or fewer.
...Tune-up game for Penn St. Bigger fish to fry on the schedule. Don't get the QB injured, and don't show much on tape.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-29-25, 02:07 PM

I enjoy listing my thoughts on here. Not financial advice. Just my opinions based on my reading.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-29-25, 03:42 PM

1* COLORADO +4 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Geo Tech travelling west. I like the Home Dog here.
...People will knock Deion. But he is rebuilding the program with more talent.
...Huge score in the trf-portal by picking up QB Salter from Liberty. Lateral move from Shedeur.
...Yellow Jackets nearly sprung the big upset @ Georgia. But they didn't.
...Haynes King has seemingly been around forever. Guy is pretty tough. But the Road Fav looks overpriced here.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-30-25, 08:26 AM

Read one story that really soured me on Coll FB. It's the story of the TENN QB Nico Iamaleava.

We know about the players skipping out on Bowl games. What about skipping Playoff games? Story is that Nico threatened to sit out the playoff game @ Ohio St.

Remember how bad TENN looked in that game? Maybe there was a reason. The bad feelings continued into spring-ball.

First off:
1) This guy Nico can screw. I'll never root for this guy.
2) WTF happened to collegiate sports? Reasonable tradeoff used to be: Play athletics for the school and you get a free degree from the school.
...This used to be a VERY GOOD deal. Especially if you came out of a good school. Think Big Ten.
...I've mentioned how the pro-player contracts are a big turnoff. That's now trickled down to College.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-30-25, 08:35 AM

Not betting this, as I don't have access to the #. But I'm going to pass along a Brad Powers play. 100% agree w/ his logic:
*ARMY: Under 7.5 Season Wins (2.14)
...This is a great bet at a Dog price (+114).
...Go back to my 2024 notes. I followed Army closely, watched all of their games.
...Army off a historic season. Twelve wins, really the best Army team since the days of Davis and Blanchard.
...QB Daily departs. Incredibly productive as a Runner and Passer. Massive production dropoff.
...Army Off Line won the Joe Moore award last year. Great Off Line, they lose three starters.
...Army DEF loses three starters after spring. Continued migration toward the Power CONF rosters.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-30-25, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Not betting this, as I don't have access to the #. But I'm going to pass along a Brad Powers play. 100% agree w/ his logic:
*ARMY: Under 7.5 Season Wins (2.14)
...This is a great bet at a Dog price (+114).
...Go back to my 2024 notes. I followed Army closely, watched all of their games.
...Army off a historic season. Twelve wins, really the best Army team since the days of Davis and Blanchard.
...QB Daily departs. Incredibly productive as a Runner and Passer. Massive production dropoff.
...Army Off Line won the Joe Moore award last year. Great Off Line, they lose three starters.
...Army DEF loses three starters after spring. Continued migration toward the Power CONF rosters.

Two Season Win bets:
1* ARMY - Under 7.5 2.15: 1 to win 1.15
1* Liberty - Over 9.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Liberty plays an unusually soft schedule.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-30-25, 07:57 PM

Two more Home Dogs:
1* AKRON +9.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
1* BAYLOR +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-30-25, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Two Season Win bets:
1* ARMY - Under 7.5 2.15: 1 to win 1.15
1* Liberty - Over 9.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Liberty plays an unusually soft schedule.

Some pro-Liberty comments:
1) I admit to piggy-backing this one from the Brad Powers podcast.
2) Acknowledge that QB Salter went to COLO.
3) Focus on the schedule:

Liberty Flames Schedule, Live Scores & Results - NCAAF 2025-2026

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/teams/main/liberty-flames/schedule

Stay Up-To-Date With The Latest Liberty Flames Schedule, Live Scores, And Results For The 2025-2026 NCAAF Season!

...Holy shit, this is a cupcake schedule.
...Liberty has had some success. Might be hard to schedule games vs Power 5. Those teams probably don't want to risk a loss.
...Powers thinks they might be favored in all 12 games. Start w/ Maine.
...Game @JaxSt. But that's a re-building roster/HC.
...Game @BowlGr. BG won't be as good. Just put stud TE into NFL.
...James MAD is also in transition. Best players now at Indiana.
...DELA and MizzSt are new FBS teams. KENNSt in 2nd year of FBS.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-02-25, 08:10 PM

Bonus 2* WNBA play: 7/3 INDIANA +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-03-25, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Bonus 2* WNBA play: 7/3 INDIANA +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

Win. ytd: +1.88/2

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 2025-07-05T05:53:32+00:00

Another 2* WNBA play: IND -5 1.87: 2 to win 1.74