Preakness Stakes Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The 2nd leg of the Triple Crown takes place this Saturday with the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Let's take a look at the Preakness Stakes odds and post position below.

Horse	Post Position	Trainer	Odds
Journalism	2	Michael McCarthy	8-5
Sandman	7	Mark Casse	4-1
River Thames	6	Todd Pletcher	9-2
Clever Again	8	Steve Asmussen	5-1
Goal Oriented	1	Bob Baffert	6-1
Heart of Honor	4	Jaime Osborne	12-1
American Promise	3	D. Wayne Lukas	15-1
Pay Billy	5	Michael Gorham	20-1
Gosger	9	Brendan Walsh	20-1

What are your Preakness Stakes predictions? Comment with your picks for Saturday's race!

[SBR Andy]

Preakness Stakes picks and predictions from SBR's Brian Robin:

Favorite pick to win: Journalism (8-5)

"We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again for the grandstand and the infield: You’re once again looking at the best horse in the Preakness 150 field. Losing the Kentucky Derby in the last sixteenth to a worthy counterpart in Sovereignty doesn’t diminish the fact that Journalism is a worthy Preakness Stakes favorite.

Nor does it diminish the fact that Journalism’s record warrants that favored status. He’s hit the board (4-1-1) in all six of his races, owns three graded stakes victories, easily has this distance covered, owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field (a 108).He also has a proper running style (stalking) that Preakness winners have and has already vanquished two horses in the field - Sandman and American Promise - by comfortable margins.

Could he bounce from that Derby finish? Of course. But Pimlico morning-line author Keith Feustle didn’t need to watch a lot of tape to make the son of Curlin the prohibitive favorite. Nor did he need to spend much time looking at the plethora of speed horses in the field to understand that a stalker of Journalism’s quality can run to his odds here."


Longshot to win: River Thames (9-2)

"Three worthy Preakness Stakes long shots belong on your tickets. But instead of Goal Oriented or Clever Again, we’re giving the slight nod here to this Maclean’s Music progeny. Just like Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher gave the nod to a move he usually shakes his head at making.

In his otherwise stellar career, Pletcher’s perpetual pain point has been the Preakness. He’s 0-for-10 in the Triple Crown’s second jewel, hitting the board only once - with Impeachment in 2000. He rarely runs his charges in the Preakness; the only time he sends one of his Derby horses to Pimlico is when they’ve won the Derby.

That’s happened twice: with Super Saver (an eighth in 2010) and Always Dreaming (seventh in 2017).

Here, however, none of that dissuaded Pletcher from skipping the Derby and sending River Thames to the Preakness. In other words, tell us you have a potential sleeper without telling us you have a potential sleeper. River Thames qualified for the Derby, courtesy of a neck loss to Derby winner Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in March and a three-quarters-length third in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April.

Putting aside for the moment the reflective aura of Sovereignty’s Derby victory to River Thames, those two victories illustrated why River Thames can steal this race. He took the lead coming around the far turn of the Fountain of Youth and held it until the final 30 yards. In the Blue Grass, River Thames stalked his way around the track and was just outkicked by Burnham Square at the wire.

That running style, solid results in two strong Derby preps, victories in his first two races (by a combined 11 1/4 lengths), and freshness at not running the Derby all make River Thames a must-use presence on your tickets.

In case you need further coaxing, let history be your guide. River Thames will start from Post 6, the most successful Preakness post, one producing the most winners (17) in event history."

[SBR Andy]

Preakness Stakes AI predictions from ChatGPT:

OpenAI's ChatGPT hit the nail on the head two weeks ago when it predicted Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty (7-1). We've called upon the "Deep Research" function to give it another go for the second leg of the Triple Crown.

AI pick to win: River Thames (No. 6)

"River Thames (9-2) fits the profile of so many recent winners. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt skipped the Kentucky Derby to target this race, comes in fresh off six weeks’ rest, and has already held his own against the best of his class - narrowly losing to Derby winner Sovereignty and Blue Grass champ Burnham Square.

The race also sets up perfectly for his style as a tactical stalker who should sit just off the pace and get a clean, ground-saving trip from Post 6. With multiple front-runners expected to duel early, River Thames should get first run on the closers and launch his bid around the far turn.

Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the best in the business, takes the reins for a barn still seeking its first Preakness win - and this might be the colt to finally get it done."


AI longshot pick: Gosger (No. 9)

"Gosger (20-1) fits the "new shooter" profile that has dominated this race recently - lightly raced, skipped the Derby, and enters off a stakes win in the Lexington. His stalking style sets up well behind the expected early speed, and with Luis Saez aboard, he should work out a clean outside trip.

Gosger has a classic pedigree (Nyquist x Tapit), solid foundation, and room to improve in just his fourth career start. If the pace heats up and a few favorites falter, he has the tools to crash the trifecta - and possibly even shock the field."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So few repeats from the Derby. I like the Beaten Favorite angle. Journalism (8/5) should be value.

[brock]

Solid favorite.

[harthebar]

AI. Hmmmm

I like sandman with goal oriented , gosger clever again

[pavyracer]

What's the weather forecast?

[dhristov211]

I know the winner. Can ChatGPT lend me $100?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So few repeats from the Derby. I like the Beaten Favorite angle. Journalism (8/5) should be value.

He really got bet down against this field. I would say that I regret not betting it. But he really didn't pay much at all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great rally. Really looked like he was too far back to recover.