The Math Chase

**Math** · 05-04-25, 09:13 AM

I ran my Top Total model last year and it did not have a 5 game losing streak all season. The longest was four, it has already had one 4 game losing streak this season.

This is the 1st season for me to use my Top Side model. It has done excellent thus far.

I just hope this doesn't flop right out of the gate. A Chase strategy is Great, until it Isnt. You must have the nerve to pull the trigger on the 5th and final game of the Chase, if you have too.

Mr. Math

**ex50warrior** · 05-04-25, 01:30 PM

Good luck!

**newton0038** · 05-04-25, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by Math

I'll be doing a 5 game Chase with my 2 models. I'll have 2 running at the same time. I do not advise anyone doing a Martingale Chase, so anyone following can simply flat bet the wagers. I'll run this until one of my models suffer a 5 game losing streak. This will be baseball only. It's not an endless Chase, it's five games only. Each Chase will be to win ($100). A Chase loss will cost me from ($4000-$5000).

I'm only running this until one Chase loss occurs, at that time, the thread will end.

The Math Chase (0-0) ($0)

Sunday May 4

Chase 1
A) Oakland Over 8.5 (-115) $115 to win $100

Chase 2
A) Giants -1.5 (-155) $155 to win $100

This is not a Chase on any particular team. Its a 5 game Chase on my Top Total model and my Top Side model. Each Chase ends with a Win or a 5 game losing streak.

I'm retired so this will be my summer project, hopefully it lasts for a longtime but you never know. Again I do not advise this and I'll only lose one.

Mr. Math

You Martingale your stake after a loss but no increase/decrease in stake after a win correct?

**Math** · 05-04-25, 01:50 PM

That's correct.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 05-04-25, 05:40 PM

The Math Chase (1-0) (+$100)

Tomorrow I'll be ready for

Chase 1
B)

Chase 3
A)

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-04-25, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by ex50warrior

Good luck!

Salud. GL, Math.

I used to think about things like this. One can get more aggressive about action. But the underlying constraint is that you have to be playing into +EV plays. If you're not sure, you let it go.

**Math** · 05-04-25, 08:04 PM

The Math Chase (1-0) (+$100)

Monday May 5

Chase 1
B) Giants Over 7.5 (+100) $215 to win $215

Chase 3
A) Royals -1.5 (-115) $115 to win $100

Mr. Math

**Math** · 05-05-25, 09:15 PM

The Math Chase (3-0) (+$300)

We have no open Chases. Back soon with Play (A) for Chase 4 & 5

Mr. Math

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-05-25, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Math

The Math Chase (3-0) (+$300)

We have no open Chases. Back soon with Play (A) for Chase 4 & 5

Mr. Math

Can't chase if you have no losers! Props, math.

**Math** · 05-06-25, 06:03 AM

The Math Chase (3-0) (+$300)

Tuesday May 6

Chase 4
A) Mets Over 9 (-110) $110 to win $100

Chase 5
A) Royals -1.5 (-105) $105 to win $100

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T11:09:53+00:00

The Math Chase (3-0) (+$300)

Wednesday May 7

Chase 4
B) Cleveland Over 9 (-115) $242 to win $210

Chase 5
B) Royals -1.5 (+100) $205 to win $205

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T17:59:06+00:00

Just closed Chase 4 with a Win.

The Math Chase (4-0) (+$400)

Pending

Chase 5
B) Royals -1.5 (+100) $205 to win $205

The Chase strategy is the Best, that is, until is ISN'T.

Mr. Math

**newton0038** · 2025-05-07T19:21:44+00:00

Sunday May 4

Chase 1
A) Oakland Over 8.5 (-115) $115 to win $100

Chase 2
A) Giants -1.5 (-155) $155 to win $100 (W)

Even though you chase, no loss added to Chase record?

**Math** · 2025-05-07T19:29:47+00:00

Sure I Chased that loss.

Look at Chase 1 play B

Remember I'm Chasing my 2 models Top Selections. I'm not chasing a team.

I'm chasing my Top Total and my Top Side, regardless of what team is chosen.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T19:33:24+00:00

Chase 1
A) Oakland Over (Loss)

Chase 1
B) Giants Over (Win)

Chase 1 closed.

**Math** · 2025-05-07T19:36:56+00:00

My format looks like this.

Chase 5
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)

That's how each is set up. It's a simple 5 game (only 5) chase. A 5 game losing streak will show a Chase loss but we won't have to worry about that. I'm only doing this until I lose one, I will stop at that point.

I bank $100 profit with each Win. But a Chase loss will cost me between ($4000-$5000).

Mr. Math

**newton0038** · 2025-05-07T20:25:47+00:00

Originally posted by Math

My format looks like this.

Chase 5
A)
B)
C)
D)
E)

That's how each is set up. It's a simple 5 game (only 5) chase. A 5 game losing streak will show a Chase loss but we won't have to worry about that. I'm only doing this until I lose one, I will stop at that point.

I bank $100 profit with each Win. But a Chase loss will cost me between ($4000-$5000).

Mr. Math

Thanks for the breakdown Math. Was getting confused with the record as an accumulative with no losses but a LOSS would be a 5 loss chase correct?

**Math** · 2025-05-07T20:32:56+00:00

Yes and I'll drop alot. But otherwise each Win will reset. Remember I have 2 Chases running here. I'm chasing my best Total each day and I'm chasing my best Side each day.

A loss occurs when I lose 5 top Totals in a row or 5 top sides in a row. Sorry for confusion.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T20:36:01+00:00

I'm probably going to profit ($3000-$4000) per month or I'm going to have a Chase loss and this will end.

Who knows maybe my models won't lose 5 in a row all season.

Mr. Math

**newton0038** · 2025-05-07T20:43:42+00:00

How are you computing a chase loss of 4-5k?

$100/unit is under 2k and that allows for juice assuming a Martingale chase and not employing -500 juice lines.

**Math** · 2025-05-07T20:54:30+00:00

U better recalculate.

Double down 5 times.

$100
$200
$400
$800
$1600

That's $3100 without any juice. When I calculate juice, probably from (-110) to (-150). It will get you easily up to $4000-$5000 on a loss.

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T20:55:24+00:00

U do understand a standard 5 game Chase, right?

Mr. Math

**Math** · 2025-05-07T21:08:48+00:00

Obviously I'm going to need between 40-50 wins before one of my two models incurs a 5 game losing streak.

With each Win my max loss is reduced by $100. After 40-50 Wins I can free roll until infinity or a 5 game losing streak.

The Math Chase (4-0) (+$400)

Pending May 7

Chase 5
B) Royals -1.5 (+100) $205 to win $205

If you want to follow this, u would need 40-50 times what your playing for in each Chase.

Play to win $10. U need a bank of$400-$500.
Play to win $100. U need a bank of $4000-$5000

Mr. Math

**newton0038** · 2025-05-07T22:12:40+00:00

Originally posted by Math

U better recalculate.

Double down 5 times.

$100
$200
$400
$800
$1600

That's $3100 without any juice. When I calculate juice, probably from (-110) to (-150). It will get you easily up to $4000-$5000 on a loss.

Mr. Math

not seeing the 3100 unless the 5th chase is a 6th game...hence under 2k is 1600 juiceless. On a single chase that is, not this 2 chase your working

**Math** · 2025-05-07T22:17:04+00:00

Ok, u don't Understand. Someone explain it to him.

Here is what it would look like at (-110) odds.

Chase 1
A) Loss $110
B) Loss $231
C) Loss $474
D) Loss $1005
E) Loss $2100

Total Loss around $4100

That's just a good estimate. If u don't understand that, I can't help you. if your trolling me, my bad.

Mr. Math

**newton0038** · 2025-05-07T22:28:13+00:00

sorry nevermind my bad

**Math** · 2025-05-08T02:53:46+00:00

The Math Chase (4-0) (+$400)

Thursday May 8

Chase 5
C) Royals -1 (-180) $738 to win $410

Chase 6
A) Phillies Over 8.5 (-110) $110 to win $100

Mr. Math