(NBA) Playoff bets - 2025 Playoffs

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-15-25, 04:56 PM

1st play: (play-in) 2* Memphis +7 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Steph Curry? Might as well be Dell Curry. Back when the dinosaurs roamed the earth.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-15-25, 05:03 PM

Future play: 2* OKC to win the West 1.71: 2 to win 1.42
...I've been chirping about this one. So, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
...Rising star team. So much reluctance b/c they have not done it yet.
...Good team chemistry, ego-less group. I think the resistance out West is < people think.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-15-25, 05:07 PM

SERIES bet: 3* DENVER 2.05: 3 to win 3.15

(gm 1) 1* DENVER -2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95

...Mgmt asked for Jokic's blessing b4 they whacked Malone. Joker signed off, tells me that they shed a festering situation.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-15-25, 05:10 PM

(gm 1) Milw +5.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Lillard misses. I don't mind this at all. Guy never met a shot he didn't like.
...I'm expecting the Buck efficiency to go up. And they'll be hungry after falling to Pacers last year.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 05:16 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1st play: (play-in) 2* Memphis +7 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Steph Curry? Might as well be Dell Curry. Back when the dinosaurs roamed the earth.

W: +1.90/2
...Assist to Veri for tipping me on this play.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 05:29 AM

(Play-in) 2* Dallas +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...I actually think this is a very good play. I expect the Mavs to give good resistance.
...Mav late-season results were very choppy. They're coming in on fumes.
...I expect Davis to play. Their big-man rotation should be good. Closer than the experts think.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 05:18 PM

Two more SERIES bets. 2* each:

*MINN 2.80: 2 to win 3.60
*HOU 2.55: 2 to win 3.10

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-16-25, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Future play: 2* OKC to win the West 1.71: 2 to win 1.42
...I've been chirping about this one. So, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
...Rising star team. So much reluctance b/c they have not done it yet.
...Good team chemistry, ego-less group. I think the resistance out West is < people think.

The 2 teams I think match up well with OKC are the Warriors and the Clippers. Their styles are effective against OKC. But I’m not sure GDW can get past the Rockets or the Clippers can get past Denver. 2tough matchups for them. This is going to be a great postseason. I’m jacked.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-16-25, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

SERIES bet: 3* DENVER 2.05: 3 to win 3.15

(gm 1) 1* DENVER -2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95

...Mgmt asked for Jokic's blessing b4 they whacked Malone. Joker signed off, tells me that they shed a festering situation.

I don’t like dysfunctional=unction a week before the playoffs. It gives players a built in excuse when they lose. I think Denver is a bad matchup for the Clippers but I just can’t imagine firing your coach for no cause to end up working out. As long as Kawhi can stay healthy, the Clips will be a tough out.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I don’t like dysfunctional=unction a week before the playoffs. It gives players a built in excuse when they lose. I think Denver is a bad matchup for the Clippers but I just can’t imagine firing your coach for no cause to end up working out. As long as Kawhi can stay healthy, the Clips will be a tough out.

Salud, Mac:
1) NBA Playoffs is a great time for people having opinions.
2) I have barely watched a game this season. Wish my 2025 opinion was sharper.
3) Basing my plays purely on my perceptions.
4) I don't discount Jokic. They won in 2023, got pipped in 2024. Jokic talked about playing as the wounded-animal.
5) Good Luck on your plays. I am betting the plays I posted. But my confidence going in is luke-warm at best.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-16-25, 08:40 PM

Jokic has been tremendous this season. He’s clearly the MVP but they’ll give it to SGA. Murray may not be healthy and that will be huge in this series. Kawhi came back and looks healthy. A healthy Kawhi is scary and Harden is playing very well. To see the Nuggets come out as favorites and now their dogs tells me that LAC is the play. BOL bro, it’s going to be a crazy playoffs. Might be the best NBA playoffs ever. A lot of parity in the league.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-16-25, 08:43 PM

The Lakers found a way to neutralize Jokic, the likes I’ve never seen before. This is a copycat league. The Clippers will most likely use the same strategy. I have not liked the way the Nuggets have looked the last few weeks. They have not been playing good basketball.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

The Lakers found a way to neutralize Jokic, the likes I’ve never seen before. This is a copycat league. The Clippers will most likely use the same strategy. I have not liked the way the Nuggets have looked the last few weeks. They have not been playing good basketball.

That's why they play the games. We'll find out soon enuf. The spread is a beautiful thing...as it splits opinion almost perfectly 50/50.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-16-25, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by chuckythegoat

(play-in) 2* dallas +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...i actually think this is a very good play. I expect the mavs to give good resistance.
...mav late-season results were very choppy. They're coming in on fumes.
...i expect davis to play. Their big-man rotation should be good. Closer than the experts think.

w. Ytd: +3.78/4

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-17-25, 12:14 AM

Good stuff Chucky…

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-17-25, 04:02 PM

(Play-in) 2* Dallas +7 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
...Similar logic to last game. Mavs under-priced IMHO.
...Davis/Gaff/Live missed almost 100 games. They were playing w/ a skeleton lineup. Kidd even joked about coming out of retirement to play as an emergency player. Don't laugh, Mike Dunleavy did it some years ago.
...One of Mem's top players (Clarke) is out. DALL much healthier than a month ago, should be competitive here.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-18-25, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

(Play-in) 2* Dallas +7 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
...Similar logic to last game. Mavs under-priced IMHO.
...Davis/Gaff/Live missed almost 100 games. They were playing w/ a skeleton lineup. Kidd even joked about coming out of retirement to play as an emergency player. Don't laugh, Mike Dunleavy did it some years ago.
...One of Mem's top players (Clarke) is out. DALL much healthier than a month ago, should be competitive here.

I like Dallas ML. Everyone and their momma are roasting the Mavs for the Luka trade. They have been getting killed in the mainstream media. Folks are saying top to bottom the organization is full of dummies. So folks are fading them with no real thought. These guys have fresh legs and their defense is off the charts. JA Morant’s ankle is gimpy, they’re down Clarke which is huge. Dallas playing OKC a 100 miles away from each other is the more compelling story. I think the Mavs could even push OKC to 6 or 7 games. That would shut up a lot of people including their whiny fans.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-18-25, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I like Dallas ML. Everyone and their momma are roasting the Mavs for the Luka trade. They have been getting killed in the mainstream media. Folks are saying top to bottom the organization is full of dummies. So folks are fading them with no real thought. These guys have fresh legs and their defense is off the charts. JA Morant’s ankle is gimpy, they’re down Clarke which is huge. Dallas playing OKC a 100 miles away from each other is the more compelling story. I think the Mavs could even push OKC to 6 or 7 games. That would shut up a lot of people including their whiny fans.

Salud, Mac. Your post closely mirrors my thoughts:

1) The writers are questioning the trade big-time. Davis should be motivated to give a good showing.
2) Go back to 2024. I was super-high on Dallas. It was mostly tied to Gaff/Live being so productive (and under the radar).
3) Contrarian logic. When people are writing off DALL...and putting the Lakers in the Finals, time to go the other way.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-19-25, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

w. Ytd: +3.78/4

*-4/4 on L3 plays. Didn't appreciate the last-second 3 by Clips.
...YTD: -0.22/8, but Nuggets did win Game One.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-20-25, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Future play: 2* OKC to win the West 1.71: 2 to win 1.42
...I've been chirping about this one. So, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
...Rising star team. So much reluctance b/c they have not done it yet.
...Good team chemistry, ego-less group. I think the resistance out West is < people think.

OKC didn't mess around, they win by 51. Sign of things to come?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-21-25, 04:21 PM

3* DEN (gm2) +1 1.95: 3 to win 2.85

1* Min (gm2) +5.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...I know people will say Zig-zag. NBA needs Lakers to extend this series (@a minimum).
...That's why they play the games. And I fully expect the Lakers to get some calls.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 04-21-25, 05:25 PM

Good luck Chucky. I’m leaning the Clippers. I just think they’re the better team when healthy. I think they won’t give Gordon so many open shots tonight. Michael Porter has been MIA, which means Russ will have to take up the slack. I’m not sure he can deliver 2 straight games. I think the Clippers win and possibly win the series in 5, maybe 6.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-26-25, 07:53 PM

OKC was -15 on road today. That has to be a RECENT record for NBA playoff Road Favs.

I don't recall the Jordan teams ever being -15 on the road in the playoffs. Tellin you, boys, this OKC team is something else.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-29-25, 06:47 PM

I'm as cold as ice. Just like Foreigner. If you need a good fade, I'm it.

2* (gm5) DENVER +2 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...I know the Clips have been better over the course of the series. I'm just stubborn.
...I'll take the pedigree and the Home Dog. Feel like home-court matters here.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-30-25, 07:45 PM

I refuse to bet on Laker filth. But logic dictates that the NBA needs the Lakers to win this one. Lakers 1h is probably a +EV bet, based on ref-bias tonite.

**blankoblanco** · 04-30-25, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I refuse to bet on Laker filth. But logic dictates that the NBA needs the Lakers to win this one. Lakers 1h is probably a +EV bet, based on ref-bias tonite.

This does feel like a classic scenario where the refs do everything they can to get this Lakers win at home to extend the series, then the Lakers lose anyway because they're just a worse team. I honestly don't know if the refs can even get them another game, the Wolves simply look way better.

I was not anticipating this before the series btw, I thought Lakers would win. But they've just looked outmatched in a way that refs would have a hard time fixing

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-30-25, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by blankoblanco

This does feel like a classic scenario where the refs do everything they can to get this Lakers win at home to extend the series, then the Lakers lose anyway because they're just a worse team. I honestly don't know if the refs can even get them another game, the Wolves simply look way better.

I was not anticipating this before the series btw, I thought Lakers would win. But they've just looked outmatched in a way that refs would have a hard time fixing

Yeah, the Wolves really do have a roster. Not sure why their Reg Sea record wasn't better.