Beating the closing line. Does it really matter?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Some people say it means everything and that if you can beat the closer you will win long term. If that was the case you could just live bet every game and beat the closing line. So this alone kind of debunks that theory. I've never placed a live bet so I'm not sure if they're all -115 or whatnot but I just thought of this when I was watching an old Justin7 video.

[uvarunthetable]

Some people say it means everything and that if you can beat the closer you will win long term. If that was the case you could just live bet every game and beat the closing line. So this alone kind of debunks that theory. I've never placed a live bet so I'm not sure if they're all -115 or whatnot but I just thought of this when I was watching an old Justin7 video.

Please tell me you are kidding about the live in-game comment? If not just give up gambling and re-enroll in a basic stats course at your local community college.

[smoke a bowl]

Some people say it means everything and that if you can beat the closer you will win long term. If that was the case you could just live bet every game and beat the closing line. So this alone kind of debunks that theory. I've never placed a live bet so I'm not sure if they're all -115 or whatnot but I just thought of this when I was watching an old Justin7 video.

Doesn't debunk that theory at all. It is a completely different bet once the game has started.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Please tell me you are kidding about the live in-game comment? If not just give up gambling and re-enroll in a basic stats course at your local community college.

I haven't placed a non playoff series wager in 3-4 years. I gave up sports gambling a while back. I still mull the boards for entertainment.

[yisman]

lol live bets are irrelevant

if the team was -140 and they go down several runs and are +300, that's not beating the closer.

Beating the closer consistently is difficult. Since betting markets are efficient, if someone were able to do so, he or she would be a long term winner.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Doesn't debunk that theory at all. It is a completely different bet once the game has started.

Of course it's a different bet. But if a line Closed Spurs -5/Heat +5 and halfway through the first quarter you bet Spurs -1 you would be beating the closer. I understand the wager has negative equity because the line has shifted but that changes nothing in terms of beating the closing line. Every NBA line shifts 1.5-2 points so you can't say that that line wasn't a posibility pre game to beat the closer.

[jjgold]

Live betting is a whole different entity

I don't think a good idea to compare closing lines to love betting lines

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Let's say before Tip-off I notice 4 nba games that you could of beat the closing line by 1-2 points.

Let's say a line opened -5/+5 and closed at -2/+2. I could just follow these 4 games and when an oppurtunity to live bet presents itself where I can beat the closer I bet it. This would be the same as had I did it pre game since it was a game that presented an oppurtunity to beat the closer

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Live betting is a whole different entity

I don't think a good idea to compare closing lines to love betting lines

What's the difference between having Team A pre game at -3(-110) when the line closed at -5, and live betting Team A at -3(-110). One bet is sharp and one isn't when it's the same wager.

[raydog]

mother of god...

[shaunovery]

Think beating the closing line hasn't anything to so with live betting

If you consistently beat the closing line you would make money on a good basis espicially if you're hedging or trading

[trytrytry]

dear lord...member since 2008? Are you serious?

[Otters27]

Let's say before Tip-off I notice 4 nba games that you could of beat the closing line by 1-2 points.

Let's say a line opened -5/+5 and closed at -2/+2. I could just follow these 4 games and when an oppurtunity to live bet presents itself where I can beat the closer I bet it. This would be the same as had I did it pre game since it was a game that presented an oppurtunity to beat the closer

Problem is you miss wire to wire winners where live betting line is never better than closing line

[stevenash]

With all due respect to the OP

Good God, there are like 93 closing line threads in the history of this here website.

[a4u2fear]

Beating the closing line is more relevant if you are betting big $. If. You are sharp and bet big money, you could move the line yourself and therefore beat it. but if you are a Joe Schmoe betting minor $, you aren't moving any lines and would only beat the ones that move in your favor, which is not easy to consistently do

btw the head linesman of pinnacle says if you beat the closer consistently, you are a winner, I think he's a guy to believe

[capone1899]

This can't be a serious thread....it just can't be

[yisman]

Someone at another forum had a local that let people bet off wednesdays lines in the paper. He bet every line that beat the line from wednesday. He kept a record of if he bet the closing line from what he was getting.

Paper was something like +58 units. If he bet the closing line he'd be -14 units. So beating the line by 1-2 points is wrth 72 units.

I don't even know what this means. 72 units over what period of time? And how is one trial conclusive? But in any case, the quote serves its purpose.


http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2009074-how-often-does-spread-line-movement-really-matter.html

[shaunovery]

If he was betting with the local and from the paper surely local would cut him off after a while