Mavericks vs Lakers - Luka revenge game

**SBR Andy** · 02-25-25, 01:20 PM

SBR's Andrew Brennan shares his Mavericks vs Lakers picks and predictions for tonight's game:

Luka Doncic Under 31.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"How could we start with anyone except for the man of the hour himself? However, this certainly isn't the bet you were expecting.

I know, Doncic is coming off a 32-point explosion against the Nuggets, as he finally looked like the superstar we've all come to know during his first seven years in the NBA. However, this total is just way too high, even when we factor in all the added "motivation" he may have tonight.

For the record, that's nonsense, and no amount of hatred toward your former team makes the ball go in the basket at a higher rate. In fact, I'd argue it could make you perform more poorly, but I don't care about that either way.

What I do care about are the numbers, which suggest we're getting great value on taking Doncic to go Under this number tonight.

Doncic is projected to score just 29.1 points, which means we're getting nearly 20% positive expected value on this bet. Or, to put it more simply, the "fair" price for this Under is -177."

Kyrie Irving Under 26.5 points (-115 DraftKings)

"I know, I'm fading two of the three superstars in this game. Here's the thing: One of the most significant issues facing recreational bettors is they think you should bet only Overs for star players. But that's what the best sports betting apps want from you.

If the public is more likely to back these stars in a massive game like this one - which is indeed the case - then sportsbooks will naturally make those totals miss on the high end rather than the low end. That was the case with Doncic, and it's the same when looking at Kyrie Irving.

Irving is projected to score only 24.3 points tonight, and yet he needs 27 to clear this total. A "fair" price for this Under would be -166, which is why these -110 odds make this another very strong four-star pick."

Dante Exum Over 6.5 points (-132 FanDuel)

"We have a bet on the first overall pick from his draft. We have one for the third overall pick. So, naturally, we need to keep the pattern going and target a prop on the 2014 fifth overall pick, Dante Exum.

That draft class produced a couple of stars, and none bigger than the man selected at No. 41 overall, some Serbian guy named Nikola Jokic. But Exum isn't on that list. However, he's averaging a career-high in points, and Exum just dropped 27 three games ago.

He's not projected for such an outburst tonight, but we do have him down for 9.4 points. Based on that projection, we're getting better than 24% +EV on this bet.

The biggest issue with this bet is the total will move, and that's already happening. BetMGM is at 7.5 with plus-money odds, while Caesars is already at -109 for the Over that total. Act quickly before our other best sportsbooks follow suit.

There's a massive gap in the break-even point for Over 6.5 (-242) and Over 7.5 (-162)."

**Optional** · 02-25-25, 01:25 PM

Bet365 Luke Doncic Super Boost

Luka Doncic to record a double-double boosted from -180 to +100

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 02-25-25, 01:36 PM

I agree with the Doncic bet, those Eastern Euros tend to be comparatively stoic and unconcerned with the so-called revenge factor. That revenge factor seems to be baked into the line.

**SomeDayinBuffalo** · 02-25-25, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Luka Doncic to record a double-double boosted from -180 to +100

With the big men out for the Mavs you would think he could get at least ten rebounds.

**hawkwind** · 02-25-25, 04:39 PM

F-K lukaloser & FLL

**JIBBBY** · 02-25-25, 07:49 PM

Mavs are horrible now. Take the Lakers! No brainer..

**SBR Andy** · 02-26-25, 08:38 AM

Luka under points cashes (19) but so does the double-double boost (+100) and the triple-double (+310).

**DwightShrute** · 02-26-25, 08:42 AM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LeBron and Luka recreated this meme �� <a href="https://t.co/1Efpb0M6eF">pic.twitter.com/1Efpb0M6eF</a></p>— BricksCenter (@BricksCenter) <a href="https://twitter.com/BricksCenter/status/1894625476569924037?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >February 26, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>