Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[2Sweeet]

Someone is stealing your thunder on reddit kid. Posting your tix unless it's u?

[Doug tushyterror]

Dough,
Why don't you go straight to Vegas with that cash and make your hedge wager? This is a massive ticket ! I wish you a lot of luck and hope you'll win. Rooting for you!

Thanks kali, but again the hedging has been done with Keys. If Shelton was in the Finals instead, it would make a lot more sense with a +300 than a -300.

[Doug tushyterror]

I have never been so happy to wake up to a losing bet. I'm firing on the man bun having wife beater with you. I can't believe it dude. You are a legend either way.

Shit's crazy bro. Trying to stay level headed considering how fukking close this is yet still so far. This feels like when I used to have actual dreams as a kid of winning the lottery that felt so real that when I woke up it took a while to realize it wasn't. I'm not getting my hopes up though. Even though the Nuggets weren't nearly as close to making the Finals as Z is to winning the AO, that was 1 leg away from a 2.65M payout just 8 months ago. Just have a sinking feeling this is gonna end the same way.

[kaliboyz]

Thanks Shea but I already hedged Keys with Sinner. I'd have 153.7k if Sinner wins so betting my remaining balance on him would only get back another $6650. I have 104k in a HYSA but the most I could transfer out immediately is 50k & that wire wouldn't hit FanDuel until at least Monday. At this point, I'll just leave it alone.

Dough,
Why don't you go straight to Vegas with that cash and make your hedge wager? This is a massive ticket ! I wish you a lot of luck and hope you'll win. Rooting for you!

[Doug tushyterror]

Sinner will win.
You can thank me for Madison win.

Why's that k13? Cuz you're a fukking mush who went big on Saba?

[Doug tushyterror]

Best of luck, Dougie

Open question: Is a hedging strategy worth it here, as in getting off a huge bet on the favorite Sinner to win? Related question - how much could you bet - would FanDuel accept a $300k win bet?

Thanks Shea but I already hedged Keys with Sinner. I'd have 153.7k if Sinner wins so betting my remaining balance on him would only get back another $6650. I have 104k in a HYSA but the most I could transfer out immediately is 50k & that wire wouldn't hit FanDuel until at least Monday. At this point, I'll just leave it alone.

[swordsandtequila]

[ByeShea]

Best of luck, Dougie

Open question: Is a hedging strategy worth it here, as in getting off a huge bet on the favorite Sinner to win? Related question - how much could you bet - would FanDuel accept a $300k win bet?

[k13]

Sinner will win.
You can thank me for Madison win.

[unlearn]

I have never been so happy to wake up to a losing bet. I'm firing on the man bun having wife beater with you. I can't believe it dude. You are a legend either way.

[pavyracer]

Nice win on Keys. Zverev has this. Hope the book pays quickly.

[johnnyvegas13]

That makes 2 of us. I just wait on the result 4 to 5 hrs later clicking the fav. tab

lol gonna b the biggest reveal of ur life when u look

[gauchojake]

Dayummm! Gl Doug. Really hope you hit this

[Steelers05]

Keys!! This is awesome, good luck in the men's final!!

[Doug tushyterror]

Wowza I’ll b rooting for it sucks its 330 eastern prop won’t watch tho

That makes 2 of us. I just wait on the result 4 to 5 hrs later clicking the fav. tab

[trobin31]

Dam teach me how to douggie

[johnnyvegas13]

Wowza I’ll b rooting for it sucks its 330 eastern prop won’t watch tho

[Doug tushyterror]

So alls u need is Zverev +230 tonight and u win ???

Final piece to the puzzle

[johnnyvegas13]

So alls u need is Zverev +230 tonight and u win ???

[Doug tushyterror]

Wow, great position you worked that in to!!

I'm happy for you.

Less than a week ago I thought you were on the fast path to ruin.

Thanks Opti..would've continued on that path if not for Keys today. Would've been a 37k loss combined on these.

[Doug tushyterror]

Wow! GL Dtt. I'll be rooting for you tonight.

Much appreciated Ian!

[Doug tushyterror]

Well I sure as penetrate did and bet the fck out of her when it went up to Sabelenka -360. One more brother

Would be crazy if I hit this AO double for the 3rd straight yr. This is from last yr & I did have Novak/Sabalenka in 2023 parlayed with 5 or 6 NFL playoff games for a 98k payout risking over $1400. I'll try to dig that 1 up from my BMR archives.

[Ian]

Wow! GL Dtt. I'll be rooting for you tonight.

[Doug tushyterror]

Bow

[2Sweeet]

Bow

[Doug tushyterror]

We are looking at $100k+ or $1.2 million+ in this thread. Let’s go! Onward.

Halfway there Dougy. Zverev has an excellent chance. This is his best form in years.

Best of luck!

BOL guy!

Much appreciated fellas!

[2Sweeet]

No chance am I watching the Keys match since I'm not planning on live betting. Same way I got all the results since the Svitolina match. Just clicking the favs. tab 3 to 4 hrs after the start time.

Well I sure as penetrate did and bet the fck out of her when it went up to Sabelenka -360. One more brother

[Optional]

There's still no cashout on the 1.2M in combined payouts Opti. Legit don't get why they'd be willing to risk this type of exposure on a -285 fav (Sinner) instead of trying to buy me out for at least 250k which seems reasonable.



In any case, I'm glad there's no cashout so I don't get tempted. With this hedge, I'm looking at a 152.7k roll (19.6 current balance) if Sinner unfortunately wins & $1,216,343 if he loses.

Wow, great position you worked that in to!!

I'm happy for you.

Less than a week ago I thought you were on the fast path to ruin.

[Doug tushyterror]

3rd set saba held to 15, 15, 0, 0, to 30 in the 5th game (had 40-15), then gets broken to lose 5-7. But Keys didnt give up a bp in the whole set to world #1 which is incredible. Women dont go a whole set without giving up a bp. Beating world #2 Iga then world #1 saba is deserving of the title for sure. I wonder how many spots she moves up now in the rankings. She might fall off like Paolini did last year making the wimbledon and french open finals and the doubles finals in the Olympics. Jasmine never won any of those however.

1 step closer for the both of us Woj. Obv didn't watch but got the score like I always do clicking the favs. tab. I did DVR it so I could watch it now totally stress-free.

[Doug tushyterror]

Funny how most of us start betting thinking about making a quick million, and quitting the next day.

I'd guess that no more than one in 10 (100?) million bettors - or day traders, or Solana meme traders - ever get to that level. And then, when you make it to the top... why would you stop? Makes no sense to stop, if you actually are one in a million, and you're that good (or that lucky). It's just not how humans think or operate.

Having an exit plan is great, but what are the chances OP actually a) wins the full bet without cashing out and b) only keeps 100-200k as betting bankroll, without 'dipping into savings' to replenish it after the very next bad streak a week or a month into the future?

You have to bet with conviction, to have a chance to become 1 in a million. And if you're serious about it, you have to quit with conviction - and this to me is even harder than hitting a 100/1 shot he's about to hit on Sunday.

GL OP

Thanks bro..but is the tentative strategy I wrote out a few days ago so there is a plan in place.

[Doug tushyterror]

Can't wait to hear the cashout offer.

Decision time.

There's still no cashout on the 1.2M in combined payouts Opti. Legit don't get why they'd be willing to risk this type of exposure on a -285 fav (Sinner) instead of trying to buy me out for at least 250k which seems reasonable.



In any case, I'm glad there's no cashout so I don't get tempted. With this hedge, I'm looking at a 152.7k roll (19.6 current balance) if Sinner unfortunately wins & $1,216,343 if he loses.

[ThaWoj]

3rd set saba held to 15, 15, 0, 0, to 30 in the 5th game (had 40-15), then gets broken to lose 5-7. But Keys didnt give up a bp in the whole set to world #1 which is incredible. Women dont go a whole set without giving up a bp. Beating world #2 Iga then world #1 saba is deserving of the title for sure. I wonder how many spots she moves up now in the rankings. She might fall off like Paolini did last year making the wimbledon and french open finals and the doubles finals in the Olympics. Jasmine never won any of those however.

[ThaWoj]

By the time DK gets back to him with a cashout offer, he's going to change his mind and just go in a full FU mode

Imagine Sinner doesn't feel his best tomorrow? He was on video, his hands shaking, in visible distress against.... Rune? a few days ago

He had to take a 13 minute medical in one of his matches. He's human

The good thing about that is that at least on dk and fd they pay winners and void losers on retirements after 1 set on atp/wta/challenger matches. Not that it would be likely that sinner would retire in a final but better than having the bet at a book that voids all retirements.

[pabonaparte]

Can't wait to hear the cashout offer.

Decision time.

My guess: 150k or something equally ridiculous

[pabonaparte]

By the time DK gets back to him with a cashout offer, he's going to change his mind and just go in a full FU mode

Imagine Sinner doesn't feel his best tomorrow? He was on video, his hands shaking, in visible distress against.... Rune? a few days ago

He had to take a 13 minute medical in one of his matches. He's human