Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[TommieGunshot]

This was actually the 2nd time in 8 months I had a reasonable shot at a 7 figure payout & it was more than twice as much just needing the Nuggets to make the Finals with the 1st 5 legs hitting. If they didn't blow the #1 seed to a bad Spurs team sitting all their starters in g81, this could've hit. Thats where the frustration is coming from. Close but no cigar yet again.

A parlay of n bets will lose by one n times as often as it wins. ie a parlay with 6 bets will go 5-1 six times as often as it goes 6-0.

But if they're good bets that one winner will come and it will make up for all the losses. You will hit one of these eventually.

I like to earn a small 1-2% on singles to cover any living expenses, then at some point there will be good parlay wins to make for a nice week or month.

[pavyracer]

Tough luck on this one but it was a long shot. My advice in the future is don't bet the other junk you bet in the last two weeks. Keep the two parlays for the long shots but also keep betting on them when you can earlier. Focus on these two players you identified and keep riding them. There is no reason to bet the whole tournament every day.

Maybe cash out now and put all on 5% savings until the French Open. Whatever you make in interest use it to make another parlay of longshots until you hit one. Only use your earnings for gambling and keep your capital intact.

[johnnyvegas13]

We have to incorporate Doug’s picks into the future podcast

u know how many people will b interested in this ???

[Chi_archie]

don't tilt now

positioning is still good if you wait for the futures/plays to come to you and not force it

good luck

[Doug tushyterror]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

This was actually the 2nd time in 8 months I had a reasonable shot at a 7 figure payout & it was more than twice as much just needing the Nuggets to make the Finals with the 1st 5 legs hitting. If they didn't blow the #1 seed to a bad Spurs team sitting all their starters in g81, this could've hit. Thats where the frustration is coming from. Close but no cigar yet again.

[Doug tushyterror]

“Lucked out”… I think you always need a little luck in life, in betting, etc…. But you did claw some back after a rough run so keep your head up. Calling Keys (who I know jack shit about) is amazing in itself. Not the result we all wanted but like I said earlier in this thread- you are relentless, I admire that and that relentlessness my friend is fuckin dangerous. Especially with some cash to fire. You do well finding spots so do it. Cheers buddy.

You got 4 months til the french open. Anyone who knows tennis knows that you can get some random ass results on clay. That might be your best shot at hitting a couple prices for the big score.

Same with golf futures (us open, masters, ect), and basketball. More options could be faster progress.

Those were some great bets. Keep making more good bets and you will get that million one day.

I don't even regret putting Z instead of Sinner with Keys cuz this was the only way to get this kind of payout. If I were to take Sinner instead it would've been with Saba like last yr so despite the result, this was the sharp play going into today. What I didn't anticipate was getting fukked out of a c/o that any other book would've offered. Not gonna pretend like I would've taken it after the fact when I had my sites set on the 1.2M getting this close esp. after the hedge but I should've had the option. Who knows, might've just taken the 250k to 300k not being able resist that amount staring at me in that green cashout button. The only thing I regret is wasting almost 20k on Z to win a set. That was from the jump, not after the fact. Wasn't worth the $8500 payout considering how ruthlessly efficient Sinner is.

[TommieGunshot]

Those were some great bets. Keep making more good bets and you will get that million one day.

[veriableodds]

Same with golf futures (us open, masters, ect), and basketball. More options could be faster progress.

[ThaWoj]

You got 4 months til the french open. Anyone who knows tennis knows that you can get some random ass results on clay. That might be your best shot at hitting a couple prices for the big score.

[mjsuax13]

I was most looking forward to seeing a copy of the email to the old boss with a screenshot of a million bucks in the bank.

Fuk yes. Even I hate his old boss!

[mjsuax13]

Thanks mj..deep down I never thought Z was beating Sinner unless he lucked out with another injury ret. This went as far as it was gonna once Sinner beat Shelton. At least Keys winning allowed that hedge so it wasn't a total wash

“Lucked out”… I think you always need a little luck in life, in betting, etc…. But you did claw some back after a rough run so keep your head up. Calling Keys (who I know jack shit about) is amazing in itself. Not the result we all wanted but like I said earlier in this thread- you are relentless, I admire that and that relentlessness my friend is fuckin dangerous. Especially with some cash to fire. You do well finding spots so do it. Cheers buddy.

[Doug tushyterror]

You never know. Hang in there buddy. I can’t imagine how you feel. Have a nice breakfast and keep your head up. You will breakthrough.

Thanks mj..deep down I never thought Z was beating Sinner unless he lucked out with another injury ret. This went as far as it was gonna go once Sinner beat Shelton. At least Keys winning allowed that hedge so it wasn't a total wash

[Optional]

I was most looking forward to seeing a copy of the email to the old boss with a screenshot of a million bucks in the bank.

[mjsuax13]

All things considered, without question the worst day of my gambling life cuz of what could've been. Best & last realistic shot I'll ever have at a 7 figure score. Not big on conspiracy theories but FD never offering a cashout & it being this straight forward makes me wonder. The icing on the shit cake was losing another 19k on Z winning a set.

You never know. Hang in there buddy. I can’t imagine how you feel. Have a nice breakfast and keep your head up. You will breakthrough.

[johnnyvegas13]

Your Bills over Commies thread looking solid JV. I'm usually good in the playoffs but so far I've been buried with LAC, MIN & BALT. Might just sit this 1 out cuz I have no feel on either game today.

Double dog ml parlay pays about +570

u should go for it w me Doug

I like it

[Vene1616]

No reason to even bet that since I would've been at 152k doing nothing & could've at least WD the 100k that I lost the last 2 wks & kept 50k in. Now with 134k I'm gonna try to get it to 200k before WD that 100k. I could easily see myself tilting & losing it all before I get anywhere close to 200k with my current mindset.

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

[Doug tushyterror]

Great try here Doug

glad u at least got the hedge bet

u on wash and bills today???

Your Bills over Commies thread looking solid JV. I'm usually good in the playoffs but so far I've been buried with LAC, MIN & BALT. Might just sit this 1 out cuz I have no feel on either game today.

[johnnyvegas13]

Maybe a good idea to prepare for these situations by staying liquid and putting at least 100k the other way? I mean 30-35k win (sinner ML) would make you feel a little bit better, no?

He did win 100k on the hedge parlay

[Vene1616]

Maybe a good idea to prepare for these situations by staying liquid and putting at least 100k the other way? I mean 30-35k win (sinner ML) would make you feel a little bit better, no?

[johnnyvegas13]

Great try here Doug

glad u at least got the hedge bet

u on wash and bills today???

[Doug tushyterror]

Massive let down.

But the ride was a thrill.

You ended up in profit for the tourney. Get em next time.

Thanks opti, you'd think the more times you put your yourself in these spots being that close, eventually 1 will go your way but I don't know if I'll ever be this close again.

[Doug tushyterror]

Needing a set and losing a tb is always sick. He was up a mini too at 1-2 and gets immediately mini'd right back. Not only would that have won you the set bet but it would have given him momentum going into the 3rd and anything could happen from there.

95% of my bets are live tennis bets and nothing I hate more than losing a tiebreak.

No reason to even bet that since I would've been at 152k doing nothing & could've at least WD the 100k that I lost the last 2 wks & kept 50k in. Now with 134k I'm gonna try to get it to 200k before WD that 100k. I could easily see myself tilting & losing it all before I get anywhere close to 200k with my current mindset.

[ThaWoj]

All things considered, without question the worst day of my gambling life cuz of what could've been. Best & last realistic shot I'll ever have at a 7 figure score. Not big on conspiracy theories but FD never offering a cashout & it being this straight forward makes me wonder. The icing on the shit cake was losing another 19k on Z winning a set.

Needing a set and losing a tb is always sick. He was up a mini too at 1-2 and gets immediately mini'd right back. Not only would that have won you the set bet but it would have given him momentum going into the 3rd and anything could happen from there.

95% of my bets are live tennis bets and nothing I hate more than losing a tiebreak.

[Optional]

All things considered, without question the worst day of my gambling life cuz of what could've been. Best & last realistic shot I'll ever have at a 7 figure score. Not big on conspiracy theories but FD never offering a cashout & it being this straight forward makes me wonder. The icing on the shit cake was losing another 19k on Z winning a set.

Massive let down.

But the ride was a thrill.

You ended up in profit for the tourney. Get em next time.

[Doug tushyterror]

All things considered, without question the worst day of my gambling life cuz of what could've been. Best & last realistic shot I'll ever have at a 7 figure score. Not big on conspiracy theories but FD never offering a cashout & it being this straight forward makes me wonder. The icing on the shit cake was losing another 19k on Z winning a set.

[Ian]

Sorry, Dtt. I hope the hedging put you in the black.

[ThaWoj]

I'd still be pretty thrilled that keys saved the day giving 6 figures back in the account. No easy task as I had mentioned previously to beat world #2 and turn around and beat world #1 in Iga and Saba. Much better than the alternative if Saba had won...

[k13]

Why's that k13? Cuz you're a fukking mush who went big on Saba?

I fell asleep to hedge my future so she had to lose after that so yeah mushed.
Sinner automatically wins.

[2Sweeet]

SMH

[mjsuax13]

Sinner too much. Great thread. Best of luck on your next play Douglas.

[ThaTopMoron]

Doug is awesome with his futures bets at tennis majors

now, he's got to push the pedal down and put at least 20k on KC -1.5

then, if it's the eagles v chiefs, be patient and put another 20 on KC in the SB

[mjsuax13]

These guys are good.

[johnnyvegas13]

Alright I’m up and joining the watch party

letsgooo

[2Sweeet]

GL bro.

[blankoblanco]

Just another guy chiming in to say GL Doug. Have been following this thread with great interest. Would be so fking hype if Zverev can take it down. Crossing my fingers for you