Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[Doug tushyterror]

Dougy probably already making 50 2-teamers for Roland Garros

Yeah cuz that's how I settled on Keys/Zverev. 49 failed 2-teamers to finally get to that one to perfectly hedge.

[Doug tushyterror]

The only issue with your last post is that 900k to win 300k is only theoretic, and the book knows it, and you have to pay for the convenience.

It's crazy they didn't even offer, I agree (but the number you'd see would probably be ridiculously low if you're just basing it off of the finals betting line)

Is it possible cashouts of 100k (or 200k) or more are never automatic, and there's an admin override feature that your book just chose to ignore on this occasion? Big balls move if so

Then ask yourself this. Why did they offer a cashout that was over 61% of the payout on the hedge parlay just needing Sinner & none on the ones needing Zverev? It should be obvious that there was a calculated decision/gamble in risk assessment that 100% banked on Sinner winning willing to risk max. exposure on a 1.2M payout instead of trying to be buy me out with any amount. Do you think that would've been the case if I stood to win 1.2M on a Keys/Sinner parlay? Probably be looking at a minimum 750k cashout.

[MalikHusam]

Dougy probably already making 50 2-teamers for Roland Garros

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey Doug I also wish you well. too. But take a long look at what STR is saying. He knows the deal long term deal with gambling, and with gambling that appears to be above one's pay grade. And the reality that you may face down the line. He is one of the smarter players on this board hands down. I hope you heed his advice. Take care.

[str]

With all due respect biggie, you couldn't possibly be more off base. If it’s all about the quick payout & not wanting to put in the work everyday, there's no chance in hell I'd be up almost 200k combined lifetime in both books. DK even limited me to peanuts after those 2 bets that I WD everything (left $5 to stream) & switched back to FD.



If I have the bankroll which I clearly do, why wouldn't I occasionally take shots at a 7 figure payout if I sense the opportunity. This is only the 2nd time that I did so putting over 10k in both times & they were reasonably close to hitting. (See post # 155 for that 2.65M payout last May that missed by 1 leg..Nuggets to make Finals) As for this 1, this was the sharpest bet I could possibly make given the payout & how much I risked. Once I won my Keys/Sinner hedge for 132k, I was in a spot that every gambler on the planet would give their left nut for..132k guaranteed with a shot at 1.2M. On top of that FD never offered a cashout (should've been at least 300k since I could've theoretically put 900k on Sinner at -300 for a guaranteed 300k payout on whoever wins). Based on everything I just laid out, I have no idea what you could possibly criticize.

I do wish you luck Doug. I really do. But I hope you have an exit strategy from betting like this down the road. I am now 70. I have been gambling since I was about 15. I was in that industry for 26 years as a thoroughbred horse trainer. Everyday. Not necessarily betting tickets, but gambling on horse flesh in general. One thing that was lost on me, and is lost on most, is that when you get older, this just cannot sustain over time. But the bigger problem is, you, your body, and your energy cannot sustain either. Without Social security, and putting money into it now and continually, as well as a retirement account, things will not be cool when you are older. Home values are important to be a part of when you are young. And etc.,etc.

I know this is an old fart telling you something you do know, but really do not want to acknowledge because it sucks. Yes! It does suck. But when you hit that age, you will look back and be so thankful it is in place for you. Or not. But what you will find out is, either way, it is now at that older age that there is nothing you can do about it because it is too late. I was lucky, I made it. I have a bunch of friends that did not fair nearly as well. Ultimately it is your call. I wish you luck with that.

[EvagorasP]

I disagree with this. I could of got down 69k s8 at the book he was playing at on the Aussie Girl's Finals. I only could do a $5700 parlay on the 2 matches though and I'm a VIP at this book for over 4 years? I have no clue how he get's the limit's he does? 34k on a random NBA scoring prop seems way crazy.. but more power to him.

Maybe he lost half a mill on that account, or they think he's a celebrity?

[EvagorasP]

Props limit for OP

Is there a max bet button on your acct? How much can you put on Saquon Barkley under 115 rush yards -115?

[2Sweeet]

I mean getting down 30k on a tennis match - even of this magnitude - without affecting the price? GL with that.

300? That's just mindboggling and outlandish. Alternate dougy reality lol

I disagree with this. I could of got down 69k s8 at the book he was playing at on the Aussie Girl's Finals. I only could do a $5700 parlay on the 2 matches though and I'm a VIP at this book for over 4 years? I have no clue how he get's the limit's he does? 34k on a random NBA scoring prop seems way crazy.. but more power to him.

[2Sweeet]

This account is a glitch in the matrix. He should sell shares to pros and charge 30% profit, risk free.

This is a great point. He won't understand that. I never heard of limits like this on Props especially.

[ARCHIVADO98]

I mean getting down 30k on a tennis match - even of this magnitude - without affecting the price? GL with that.

300? That's just mindboggling and outlandish. Alternate dougy reality lol

[ARCHIVADO98]

The only issue with your last post is that 900k to win 300k is only theoretic, and the book knows it, and you have to pay for the convenience.

It's crazy they didn't even offer, I agree (but the number you'd see would probably be ridiculously low if you're just basing it off of the finals betting line)

Is it possible cashouts of 100k (or 200k) or more are never automatic, and there's an admin override feature that your book just chose to ignore on this occasion? Big balls move if so

[Doug tushyterror]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Totally agree on all counts Biggie.

He’s just not interested in the marathon but it is great advice.

With all due respect biggie, you couldn't possibly be more off base. If it’s all about the quick payout & not wanting to put in the work everyday, there's no chance in hell I'd be up almost 200k combined lifetime in both books. DK even limited me to peanuts after those 2 bets that I WD everything (left $5 to stream) & switched back to FD.



If I have the bankroll which I clearly do, why wouldn't I occasionally take shots at a 7 figure payout if I sense the opportunity. This is only the 2nd time that I did so putting over 10k in both times & they were reasonably close to hitting. (See post # 155 for that 2.65M payout last May that missed by 1 leg..Nuggets to make Finals) As for this 1, this was the sharpest bet I could possibly make given the payout & how much I risked. Once I won my Keys/Sinner hedge for 132k, I was in a spot that every gambler on the planet would give their left nut for..132k guaranteed with a shot at 1.2M. On top of that FD never offered a cashout (should've been at least 300k since I could've theoretically put 900k on Sinner at -300 for a guaranteed 300k payout on whoever wins). Based on everything I just laid out, I have no idea what you could possibly criticize.

[mjsuax13]

Wow, this is the best advice I ever read on this forum and I've been here way longer than 2022. This is sound advice Dougie. Don't piss it away it's a marathon not a sprint bro. There will be other shots.

He’s just not interested in the marathon but it is great advice.

[mjsuax13]

Draftkings got sick of waiting for him to lose some back after a year and collared him.

That’s exactly it. FD heading that direction.

[Optional]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Draftkings got sick of waiting for him to lose some back after a year and collared him.

[str]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Totally agree on all counts Biggie.

[biggie12]

Man it is nice to see this in here. Really sound thinking.

Multiple posters in here should print this out and read it as often as possible.

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

[MalikHusam]

Right?!?! William Hill/BETMGM NEVADA would tell me to piss off.

This account is a glitch in the matrix. He should sell shares to pros and charge 30% profit, risk free.

[mjsuax13]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

Right?!?! William Hill/BETMGM NEVADA would tell me to piss off.

[str]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

Man it is nice to see this in here. Really sound thinking.

Multiple posters in here should print this out and read it as often as possible.

[MalikHusam]

Thanks 2S but even risking 34k on a player prop is spiral territory considering all the variables that could go wrong. This was pretty much a one off trying to get those "Z win 1 set" losses back. I've vowed to lay off player props considering how tempting they are but it's 1 bad beat away from tilting.

If they let you risk 30k a pop, you should really take up long distance running and prepare for Boston marathon. Or get super fit. Or do stunts like Tom Cruise. Just for the hell of it. You can afford it. Just find something outside the house, the more physically active and dangerous, the better. Bungee jump. Parachute jump. Cliff hang.

Get out, let adrenaline flow with 0 thought of money and betting.

You can continue to bet every day - but hundreds, not thousands - to stay sharp. And only really BET once or twice a month. If you feel like you'll get cut off UNLESS you bet like a true degen every day, you'll lose your stack. You can't win a mil on your schedule. You've done everything right so far, except get super lucky.

Just get enough shots in, like 2sweet says, and avoid blowing your roll on shitty bets that even johnyvegas knows are -EV

[Doug tushyterror]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

Thanks 2S but even risking 34k on a player prop is spiral territory considering all the variables that could go wrong. This was pretty much a one off trying to get those "Z win 1 set" losses back. I've vowed to lay off player props considering how tempting they are but it's 1 bad beat away from tilting.

[2Sweeet]

Why would you tilt? I think you posted before you basically were betting the other female player (badosa?) and your 100k would be long gone if odds didn't change on you *at that very instant*.

Everything from that moment on, was a freeroll and a blessing.

You got this far by pushing the envelope, and I don't know if this is sustainable - especially if you feel bad about losing. Are you sure you're in control, Doug?

You got hundreds of football props in front of you, you could probably literally make 50 1k bets and if you read both games well, win 10-15k with very little risk of ruin.

But thinking THIS - a 100/1 shot that you didn't even mean to bet - was your best and only chance to ever make it to the BIG LEAGUES - this kind of mindset isn't a winner's mindset.

Let it fuking go

Wow, this is the best advice I ever read on this forum and I've been here way longer than 2022. This is sound advice Dougie. Don't piss it away it's a marathon not a sprint bro. There will be other shots.

[2Sweeet]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

[Doug tushyterror]

I’m surprised they let you make these!

Just a matter of time before I'm limited like I was at DK this month after the Fritz win.

[Doug tushyterror]

I'm trying to turn a $25 bonus bet I was given into $250 all I need is Kincaid 12 more yards and buffalo +8.5 but he barely played the 2nd half so its most likely dead. Would at least give me money for groceries, gas and keep my phone turned on.

Damn man, would've had it with that 4th down drop. Now you know how I felt with Andrews costing me a 79k payout even though Kincaid's drop wasn't nearly as bad

[Doug tushyterror]

Doug did you follow?

Wish I would’ve TTM but laid off. Only 3 playoff bets so far with 2 parlay killers

[TommieGunshot]

I’m surprised they let you make these!

Any account that takes +$30k on player props could be worth $1.2 million.

[ThaTopMoron]

Doug is awesome with his futures bets at tennis majors

now, he's got to push the pedal down and put at least 20k on KC -1.5

then, if it's the eagles v chiefs, be patient and put another 20 on KC in the SB

Doug did you follow?

[mjsuax13]

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.

I’m surprised they let you make these!

[ThaWoj]

Relatively stress-free. Passed the time watching POI on Prime but you never know with these bets. Main concern is pulling the starters in a blowout besides the injury risk.
*short term goal is 200k to WD the 100k in losses

I'm trying to turn a $25 bonus bet I was given into $250 all I need is Kincaid 12 more yards and buffalo +8.5 but he barely played the 2nd half so its most likely dead. Would at least give me money for groceries, gas and keep my phone turned on.

[Doug tushyterror]

Nice hit. He might have went the whole qtr scoreless which woulda been an ultra bad beat but that play with 6 minutes left where they got the offensive board like 4 times and he made the 3 ball on the last offensive board saved you

Relatively stress-free. Passed the time watching POI on Prime but you never know with these bets. Main concern is pulling the starters in a blowout besides the injury risk.
*short term goal is 200k to WD the 100k in losses

[ThaWoj]

Nice hit. He might have went the whole qtr scoreless which woulda been an ultra bad beat but that play with 6 minutes left where they got the offensive board like 4 times and he made the 3 ball on the last offensive board saved you

[ThaWoj]

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.

I saw he made a deuce right after you placed the bet. Then they subbed him out. Looks like you still have a whole qtr left and it's a close game sooo.....

Edit meant to say he made a deuce after the time on the ticket

[Doug tushyterror]

don't tilt now

positioning is still good if you wait for the futures/plays to come to you and not force it

good luck

We have to incorporate Doug’s picks into the future podcast

u know how many people will b interested in this ???

Tough luck on this one but it was a long shot. My advice in the future is don't bet the other junk you bet in the last two weeks. Keep the two parlays for the long shots but also keep betting on them when you can earlier. Focus on these two players you identified and keep riding them. There is no reason to bet the whole tournament every day.

Maybe cash out now and put all on 5% savings until the French Open. Whatever you make in interest use it to make another parlay of longshots until you hit one. Only use your earnings for gambling and keep your capital intact.

A parlay of n bets will lose by one n times as often as it wins. ie a parlay with 6 bets will go 5-1 six times as often as it goes 6-0.

But if they're good bets that one winner will come and it will make up for all the losses. You will hit one of these eventually.

I like to earn a small 1-2% on singles to cover any living expenses, then at some point there will be good parlay wins to make for a nice week or month.

Back to the grind. Seems EZ enough barring injury but losing this could make me spiral.