11/20: 2* Jacksonville St +2.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol? -
12/20: 3* Tulane +13 1.91: 3 to win 2.73
*Request for any info on Wash St. I'm hearing that the QB and possibly other players may be entering the portal. Will they skip out on this bowl game?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Going to be a hell of a showdown Friday night between Idaho vs Mt StComment -
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The way I see it Chuck:
Mt St did put a beatdown on Idaho in October but you have to take that with a grain of salt as they were searching for a QB replacement. I mean I watched that game and Idaho looked brutal. Obviously, they are a different team with their starter so I don't anticipate the same 31 point route.
Well opening line looks like it will be 10.5. Justbet hasn't released a line yet. Mellott is a runner first so defenses have to respect the rush attack. If Idaho can somehow stop the rush, which no one has been able to especially in Bozeman, they can get Mellott in obvious pass downs. Although he is just so dangerous on the run. They run so many formations and shifts that defenses have a hard time stopping it all. I mean you basically have to sell out for one part. Problem with that this year is Mellott is now a very good passer as well. The past few seasons defenses could 100% sell out for the rush knowing Mellott couldn't throw accurate passes down field so it was easy to leave safeties alone on islands against recievers. That is no longer the case, as seen last week. Mellott threw all over UT Martin when they tried to pack the box. No one is going to stop the offense of Mt St. If they do lose it will be because some other team was able to keep up scoring TDs. The problem with most schools is Mt St defense doesn't give up a whole lot of Tds so they fall behind and then it is just over when they become one dimensional.
Mt St offensive line is the key though. They have NFL talent, I saw a few are projected as high draft picks. They just manhandle defensive lines and as the game wears on you start to see Mt St gash opponents with huge chunk plays. I think Idaho has the talent to make it a game but it is hard to not back Mt St again. No one has been able to stay in a game in Bozeman. They just don't turn the ball over and score too many points.
Keys for Idaho: if they want to have a chance they have to keep drives alive to keep Mt St offense on the sideline and obviously not turn the ball over. Falling multiple tds behind early is something that has happened to every team that has visited Bozeman this season. That only ends one way..........massive burial.
That is my two cents. Good luck this week Chuck.Comment -
unde, thx for your input. I've said that niche-handicappers can do well. Your local FCS knowledge is very good.
I'll be tuned in. Will be looking forward to it.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Two FCS plays for 12/14:
3* SOUTH DAKOTA -5.5 1.87: 3 to win 2.61
2* SO DAKOTA ST -16.5 1.87: 2 to win 1.74Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Do you like Idaho +10.5Comment -
Gotcha was on Idaho and Montana St last week from this thread so appreciate the knowledge. Also had Rhode Island +10. Already tailing this weeks plays already. Good luckComment -
Very nice. Good Luck.
I will give a few comments on FCS. And I consider Unde to have better info on the Western teams:
1) These FCS openers are not always sharp. These #s move. I hope to generate some BTCL value (against the closing lines).
2) My bias in the FCS Quarterfinal round is to think Favorites first. These top teams are very strong. They're focused, and I expect them to play well.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I don’t think Montana St is gonna roll everyone. Eventually gonna have to play a close game within 10 points. I expect 2 games to be within 10. Obv they are winning straight up in this scenario.Comment -
I also think it helps that Tulane is playing an early bowl-game. Sumrall could effectively shelve the job-talk until after the bowl.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
OK, the Tulane pick might be rotten. I had a bad feeling. QB Mensah transferring out.
The replacement QB Thompson was a 5* recruit who came in from Oregon. I believe Thompson was ahead of Mensah in the pre-season depth chart. So, there may still be hope of cashing the +13.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I should have taken +6 but was hoping all the Dakota hype would have the masses jumping on the bus and get that line to 7, not so much
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Only in FCS will you see 4 different lines on 4 different books. They don't know what to do.Comment -
That UC Davis vs South Dakota line diving. A little surprised to see 3.5 now.Comment -
(Week) +6.17/7. The two sides cover.
*Pending: two plays + one FCS future.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Two FCS plays for 12/21:
1* NO DAKOTA ST +2.5 1.90: 1 to win .90
...This is the # I wanted. I like the line-value.
...Bison have great pedigree. Dangerous as a Home Dog.
...SoDakSt QB Gronowski is an NFL prospect. But the Bison counter with veteran QB Miller (28/4 TD/INT).
...I like NoDakSt kicker Crosa. Very accurate. Can be a factor in a tight game.
...I point to one bad SoDakSt data point. The season-opening loss @OklaSt now looks terrible. Cowboys were touted at the time, but wound up going 0-9 in Big12 play.
...NoDakSt close loss @Colorado aged much better. Buffs had a good season.
2* South Dakota +8.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Montana St is a great team. They earned the #1 ranking.
...But my theme here is Strength of Schedule. South Dakota played a tougher schedule than MontSt.
...South Dakota took a Non-Conf loss @Wisconsin. MontanaSt got a win @NewMexico, who was in total rebuild mode.
...Bozeman will be rocking. It will be a tough venue. Just think they're laying too many points.
...Coyotes are battle-tested after the close games vs SDakSt/NDakSt. QB Bouman is an Iowa St transfer.
...He'll be up for the challenge. I like the points here.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*Quick note on this game (and the Bowl games, in general):
...These games are so tough to handicap. Lots of moving parts.
...The Ohio HC departed. Strong rumors that Jax St HC Rodriguez will depart for West VA.
...Hard to figure out team motivations. I like the line-value, but the team motivation is tough to read.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
2nd unit on NO DAK ST +2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
1* OHIO ST -7 1.83: 1 to win .83
...Buckeyes off a no-show vs MICH. Bounceback spot.
...Tenn is a Public Dog. Betting public has a hard time backing the Bucks after bad showing last out.
...Knoxville is not tropical. But SEC teams almost NEVER play in freezing temps. HFA to the Bucks in Columbus OH.
2* Alabama -10.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...See note above about the Mich/Ohio St result. Truly shocking, very improbable upset win.
...Wolverines should be very full of themselves. Number has been ratcheted down way too low.
...Michigan players are telling you that they don't care about this game. Their best players (Graham/WillJohnson/Loveland) all opted out.
...Shell of a roster once you see who MICH is lining up with. As long as Zvada doesn't kick five Field Goals, I feel confident about Alabama winning by margin.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Two Round of 8 games* (*Contingent on these matchups materializing):
1* Boise St +11.5 1.87 (vs PennSt): 1 to win .87
1* Ohio St +1.5 1.91 (vs Oregon): 1 to win .91
...Just like the line-value if those matchups materialize.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* Florida -10 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Small hedge-back (vs my Tulane bet).
1* NO DAK ST +3.5 1.77: 1 to win .77
...Number looks too juicy. Go back to my point on SoDakSt getting routed by Okla St (who went 0-9 in Big12).
1* NOT DAME -6.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Number ratcheted down. I don't see the matchup being that close.
1* North Carolina -2 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Wheels in motion at North Carolina. But there should be a talent edge to UNC.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Hi OP, what's your record so far for the bowl games?
I could tally up what's posted on this thread, but I'm busy like hell with my work so I don't have too much free time to add them up. Thanks in advance.Comment -
I do a horrible job on the Jax St line. I get the only number that loses (early +2.5). Dammit.
DJ, I didn't play a previous bowl game. Have had some success on FCS. See the prior threads.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Jax St does me in on the 2-pt miss. Awful read by me (overall). Didn't ponder the HC change.
DJ, this is my last update. See final post:
...YTD = +45.9 units (in all sports)Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
DJ, I've written about how hard these bowl-games are to cap. Lots of moving parts on Coaches/Players. And I'm not doing a good job of identifying value.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
