(Coll FB) Week 14 plays

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37365

    #1
    (Coll FB) Week 14 plays
    Four Championship-game plays. Liked these more than I expected. Buying some points on these games, just thought it was the best value:

    3* BOISE ST -3 1.75: 3 to win 2.25
    ...Broncos have a star RB in Jeanty. Amazing production stats.
    ...They've figured out how to use Jeanty as a decoy. Opens up the offense when Jeanty is NOT carrying the ball. Balanced offense, hard to stop.
    ...Boise HC eased up on some opponents early in the season. Final scores don't tell it all.
    ...Boise had more yards and more First Downs in the 3-pt loss @#1 Oregon. May have won SU if not for two Duck return touchdowns.
    ...Boise has had a great year. Number looks short. I expect them to finish it off.

    3* Iowa St +3 1.77: 3 to win 2.31
    ...More experienced QB and more experienced HC.
    ...Solid kicker versus almost no option @ Kicker.
    ...If I was Campbell, I'd try to shut down the big-play. Make ArizSt score in the red-zone, where they really can't rely on the kicker. Kicker hasn't hurt the Sun Devils YET.
    ...ArizSt has killed me, they're rolling. Can't see them being a solid favorite. Feel like the Cyclones are more equipped to move on.

    3* Army +5.5 1.93: 3 to win 2.79
    ...I've written a lot about Army. Great team, especially on offense.
    ...Notre Dame game was a talent mis-match. And I think that's the only game where a lot of people saw Army play. They're better than that.
    ...Situational advantage. Southern team playing up north. It will be cold, Army will be more accustomed to this temperature.

    2* Clemson +3 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
    ...SMU has had a home-run year. Hard to imagine that the Mustangs have better personnel.
    ...Clemson with a chance to crash the party. They will be motivated to steal a bid.
    ...Situational edge to Clemson. Short-travel game, 120 mile bus ride to Charlotte NC.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37365

    #2
    Picked up a note on ArizSt: *Top WR Tyson expected to miss.
    ...Another reason to like IASt. Go, Cyclones!
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • Spite
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-28-24
      • 171

      #3
      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
      Picked up a note on ArizSt: *Top WR Tyson expected to miss.
      ...Another reason to like IASt. Go, Cyclones!

      IDK bro...... IF you ask me Dillingham > Campbell

      Just my opinion though.
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 37365

        #4
        Adding units:
        1* Army +6 1.91: 1 to win .91

        1* IASt +2 1.91: 1 to win .91
        ...Based on the Tyson news.

        Good Luck, everyone!
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 37365

          #5
          Originally posted by Spite
          IDK bro...... IF you ask me Dillingham > Campbell

          Just my opinion though.
          Fair comment. Dillingham MIGHT win Big12 Coach of the Year.

          Like I say, he's young. Check out his end-game strategy vs BYU. Damn near cost his team an L.

          Thx for the comments. And hope the Holiday season is treating you well.
          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • ChuckyTheGoat
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 04-04-11
            • 37365

            #6
            One FCS play: 2* IDAHO -14 1.87: 2 to win 1.74
            ...Starting QB Layne returned from injury. Looked good L2 games.
            ...Vandals played well in opener @Oregon. Gave the Ducks a good game. They also won SU @Wyoming.
            ...Solid team with a veteran defense. They played middle of the season w/o Layne. Should be in peak form now.
            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
            Comment
            • SundanceKid
              SBR Hustler
              • 05-29-24
              • 93

              #7
              Chucky, right now you can get Bama +260 Not to make the playoff. Smu +330 not to make the playoff. Have to take both. Clemson is just +110 on the ML. If Clemson wins that game, which I believe to be the case, then they are in. Which leaves one of Bama or SMU out.
              Comment
              • brock
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-07-08
                • 8249

                #8
                Looks good. Like Oregon after the MN Gophers almost beat Penn St
                Good luck.
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37365

                  #9
                  EDIT: plz throw this out.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 37365

                    #10
                    Originally posted by brock
                    Looks good. Like Oregon after the MN Gophers almost beat Penn St
                    Good luck.
                    Thx, brock. My football picks have been shaky at best this year. Just my opinions, hoping for the best.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-04-11
                      • 37365

                      #11
                      *Changing my note from above. Re-visited my notes:

                      *I went thru the grid. Mentioned this comment on 13 teams for 12 slots.

                      ...I think SMU is ranked high enough. Unless they lose by 20+, I view it as:
                      *SMU win = Alab in.
                      *SMU loss = SMU still in, Alab out.

                      SMU is rated too high. Alab should not leap-frog SMU unless they lose by 20+.
                      ...I think Alab to miss is a great bet at +260.
                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 37365

                        #12
                        Will give more commentary on this SMU vs Alab comparison:

                        *SMU's loss came early in the season b4 the HC made the QB switch.
                        ...It's not a BAD loss, as BYU did get to 9-0.

                        *If you want to see BAD losses, look at Alabama's resume.
                        ...They lost @Vandy and @Okla. Those teams finished bottom 6 in the conference.
                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 04-04-11
                          • 37365

                          #13
                          Player Prop Opinion: I never bet these Player Props. This is just an opinion for the board.

                          I saw this current line: Army player Short: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115)

                          ...Here's my logic on this. I am well-studied on Army.
                          ...Short is very fast. He's their big-strike player.
                          ...Daily is a better passer than people realize. Short is very quick in space.
                          ...Short's Yards Per Catch = 20.0. So, he might hit this over on just one catch!
                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 37365

                            #14
                            Another Opinion for the board. Alabama to make the CFP? No (+300).

                            ...This wager generated discussion in the other thread. I think the SMU vs Alabama comparison is worth studying.
                            ...SMU HC Lashlee correctly noted that the team should have called in sick for this game. In that case, they'd be in at 11-1.
                            ...SMU's high rating in the latest CFP poll tells me that the Mustangs are safely in, unless they lay an egg in this game.
                            ...In my mind even a close loss of 7 or fewer gets SMU in. Just my opinion.
                            ...I don't think think Alabama name recognition is worth that much. In the end, it might be about Alabama selling tickets.
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-04-11
                              • 37365

                              #15
                              Good start. Enjoyed those games.
                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 37365

                                #16
                                Two small FCS plays:

                                1* Villanova +11 1.91: 1 to win .91

                                1* SOUTH DAKOTA -16 1.87: 1 to win .87
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 04-04-11
                                  • 37365

                                  #17
                                  Props to Ariz St. Very impressive.
                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                  Comment
                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-04-11
                                    • 37365

                                    #18
                                    Adding a unit on Clemson +3 1.83: 1 to win .83

                                    ...I think there are reasons to like Clem. SMU in a very precarious spot. The HC even addressed questions on the prospect of missing out by playing the extra game.
                                    ...SMU feasted on the soft underbelly of the ACC. Pretty low Strength of Schedule.
                                    ...Clemson lost games last year b/c of the kicker. Big upgrade to top prospect Hauser this year.
                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                    Comment
                                    • Mr KLC
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-19-07
                                      • 31097

                                      #19
                                      Georgia was down 17-0 at half to GT.
                                      Down 10-0 after one quarter to Tennessee.
                                      Dogs have been a poor offensive team out of the gate for a while now.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 37365

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Mr KLC
                                        Georgia was down 17-0 at half to GT.
                                        Down 10-0 after one quarter to Tennessee.
                                        Dogs have been a poor offensive team out of the gate for a while now.
                                        Hey, KLC. Beck has been surprisingly bad in the 2h of the season.

                                        We'll see if I'm wrong. Right now, Texas rates a grade above GEO.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-04-11
                                          • 37365

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                          Adding a unit on Clemson +3 1.83: 1 to win .83

                                          ...I think there are reasons to like Clem. SMU in a very precarious spot. The HC even addressed questions on the prospect of missing out by playing the extra game.
                                          ...SMU feasted on the soft underbelly of the ACC. Pretty low Strength of Schedule.
                                          ...Clemson lost games last year b/c of the kicker. Big upgrade to top prospect Hauser this year.
                                          Very good day. Bumping this only b/c one of my Kicker comments finally came to fruition.
                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                          Comment
                                          • unde0087
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 03-27-08
                                            • 28952

                                            #22
                                            Idaho, UC Davis, and Mt St all massacres. Big Sky dominatrix
                                            Comment
                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 04-04-11
                                              • 37365

                                              #23
                                              (Week) +4.43/16
                                              ...Very good week. Two losers: SO DAK wins by 11 but loses ATS. IASt gets rolled.
                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                              Comment
                                              • veriableodds
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-22-17
                                                • 5093

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                (Week) +4.43/16
                                                ...Very good week. Two losers: SO DAK wins by 11 but loses ATS. IASt gets rolled.
                                                IAST thought santa was going to come early, then they realized the only thing playing was old Garfield cartoons from the 80'S
                                                Comment
                                                • veriableodds
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-22-17
                                                  • 5093

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by chuckythegoat
                                                  (week) +4.43/16
                                                  ...very good week. Two losers: So dak wins by 11 but loses ats. Iast gets rolled.
                                                  great week chuck!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                    • 37365

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by veriableodds
                                                    great week chuck!!
                                                    Thanks, veri!
                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                    Comment
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