(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 07

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to last week:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3744157-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-06-a.html

Week 06: 0-1 ATS
ytd: 8-5 ATS (.615)

Thanks to anyone contributing in here. Have seen some good opinions/info.

1) List a side (or Total) you're playing.

2) Quote a current line.

3) In 2 or 3 sentences, briefly state your case for Fading a team and Backing the opponent based on Public Perception.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

CAROLINA Panthers +10

[Shark]

I’m in an ats pick em. Not a single person took Car.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I’m in an ats pick em. Not a single person took Car.

Thanks, Shark! That's good info.

My selection mirrors that info. The -10 is SLIGHTLY higher than my mechanical projection. But the public bias is tilted heavily, so I view that as the key betting factor.

Question: How many players in your ATS pool?

[Shark]

There are 31 players but you only pick 5 games each week. It was 10 wash, zero car.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

There are 31 players but you only pick 5 games each week. It was 10 wash, zero car.

OK. Thanks, Shark. That's good info, pretty telling.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What a terrible pick. An embarrassing performance by Carolina.

I have one question. How bad are the Carolina players?

They changed the QB. They brought in a new HC. Wow, these guys suck.

[Shark]

Shit rolls down hill that owner in Carolina is the biggest ass hat in the league.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Shit rolls down hill that owner in Carolina is the biggest ass hat in the league.

Ya. A Carolina play is against the grain for sure.

I get it. It's the assumed risk.

[Tomatero]

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 7 bets at #BetMGM

83% on Eagles -3 ✅
79% on Commanders -9.5 ✅
72% on Bengals -5.5 ✅
72% on Lions +1.5 ✅
70% on Chiefs +1.5 ✅
63% on Bills -9.5 ✅


Public keeps winning ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 7 bets at #BetMGM

83% on Eagles -3 ✅
79% on Commanders -9.5 ✅
72% on Bengals -5.5 ✅
72% on Lions +1.5 ✅
70% on Chiefs +1.5 ✅
63% on Bills -9.5 ✅


Public keeps winning ��

Toma, that's great info! Thanks for contributing.

As for Carolina? I guess there's a reason the Public was on em.

Fair to say that it was a foregone conclusion. QB gets knocked out, and it doesn't seem to matter one bit.

[Tomatero]

Week 7 NFL lopsided sides (by total bets) at @BetMGM:
86% of ��️ on Eagles -3✅
82% on Commanders -9.5✅
80% on Bengals -5.5✅
76% on Bills -9.5✅
72% on Colts -3✅
71% on Chargers -2❔
70% on Falcons -3❌
69% on Chiefs +1.5✅

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 7 bets at #BetMGM

83% on Eagles -3 ✅
79% on Commanders -9.5 ✅
72% on Bengals -5.5 ✅
72% on Lions +1.5 ✅
70% on Chiefs +1.5 ✅
63% on Bills -9.5 ✅


Public keeps winning ��

I found my handicap to be very tricky this week:

*I bet the Eagles -3, even if I thought it was square. Seemed like -3 was the bare minimum.
*Mentioned that I thought Carolina justified a bet. Purely based on public sentiment.
* I would have bet the Browns. If I didn't think they were broken.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 7 NFL lopsided sides (by total bets) at @BetMGM:
86% of ��️ on Eagles -3✅
82% on Commanders -9.5✅
80% on Bengals -5.5✅
76% on Bills -9.5✅
72% on Colts -3✅
71% on Chargers -2❔
70% on Falcons -3❌
69% on Chiefs +1.5✅

Home Dogs just don't cover anymore. By my count, the streak is 12-0 on NFL Road Favs winning ATS. How easy is that?

[Tomatero]

Home Dogs just don't cover anymore. By my count, the streak is 12-0 on NFL Road Favs winning ATS. How easy is that?

Unreal ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 07: 0-1 ATS
ytd: 8-6 ATS (.571)