(NFL) Week 06 plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Carryover from last thread = 1* Clev +6.5. Bad number!

2* SEA SEAHAWKS +3 1.97: 2 to win 1.94
...If Wk04 was a revenge game for the Lions, this game should be a revenge game for the Seahawks.
...Niners have been a huge thorn in the side of SEA. 0-5 S/U versus Niners in last two seasons.
...Finally might have a team that can compete with the Niners (who are faltering).
...I tie the Niner slow start to guys holding out and bitching about contracts. No sweat equity.
...HC McDonald gets good grades on preparation. BALT is arguably missing him this year.
...Off BB losses and 5x revenge, I look for a spirited performance in front of the 12th Man.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 1.86: 2 to win 1.72

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Carryover from last thread = 1* Clev +6.5. Bad number!

2* SEA SEAHAWKS +3 1.97: 2 to win 1.94
...If Wk04 was a revenge game for the Lions, this game should be a revenge game for the Seahawks.
...Niners have been a huge thorn in the side of SEA. 0-5 S/U versus Niners in last two seasons.
...Finally might have a team that can compete with the Niners (who are faltering).
...I tie the Niner slow start to guys holding out and bitching about contracts. No sweat equity.
...HC McDonald gets good grades on preparation. BALT is arguably missing him this year.
...Off BB losses and 5x revenge, I look for a spirited performance in front of the 12th Man.

One other angle on this game: *SF K Moody was injured on Sunday.
...He left the game. Not sure of his status for next week. Niners may have to hit the waiver wire for a Kicker.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Tampa Bay Bucs +2 1.91: 1 to win .91

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 1.86: 2 to win 1.72

3rd unit on Jags +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

3rd unit on SEA +3.5 1.87: 1 to win .87

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few Niner notes:
1) I'm reading that McCaff might be activated for the Chief game. But not this week.
...After the backup had good games, the analysts talked of the RBs being inter-changeable.
...I'm not buying that. McCaff was cooking at a rate close to a TD per game.

2) As expected, the kicker is going to be a problem. Moody expected to miss.
...Randy Bullock is the name I'm seeing as likely replacement.
...I don't consider Bullock to be good. He's unlikely to make a kick of 50+. He would hamstring Shanahan on his game decisions.

This information looks good for SEA going into Thursday. I'm liking my Seahawk ticket.

[johnnyvegas13]

A few Niner notes:
1) I'm reading that McCaff might be activated for the Chief game. But not this week.
...After the backup had good games, the analysts talked of the RBs being inter-changeable.
...I'm not buying that. McCaff was cooking at a rate close to a TD per game.

2) As expected, the kicker is going to be a problem. Moody expected to miss.
...Randy Bullock is the name I'm seeing as likely replacement.
...I don't consider Bullock to be good. He's unlikely to make a kick of 50+. He would hamstring Shanahan on his game decisions.

This information looks good for SEA going into Thursday. I'm liking my Seahawk ticket.

I’m sure bullock will b fine if that’s who they go w

I wouldn’t consider that a reason to fade San Fran

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I’m sure bullock will b fine if that’s who they go w

I wouldn’t consider that a reason to fade San Fran

You wanna bet on that? Are you an NFL GM now?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I’m sure bullock will b fine if that’s who they go w

I wouldn’t consider that a reason to fade San Fran

Here's that wager that I want you to accept. Let's bet on: # of MADE FIELD GOALS of 50+ in this game.

*If it's 0 vs 0 (or 1 vs 1), it's a push.

...I'll take Seattle, you have San Fran. +100 odds, $100 to win $100.

...I have SEA (Myers), you have San Fran (Any kicker).

[johnnyvegas13]

You wanna bet on that? Are you an NFL GM now?

Ya I am Chuck

maybe I’ll go to new York and interview for the jets job …

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* DENVER BRONCOS +3 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* TENN TITANS +1 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Holding this from last thread. Gonna feel like an albatross:

(Lookahead for Week 06) 1* Clev Browns +6.5 2.00: 1 to win 1.00 (@Phi)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's that wager that I want you to accept. Let's bet on: # of MADE FIELD GOALS of 50+ in this game.

*If it's 0 vs 0 (or 1 vs 1), it's a push.

...I'll take Seattle, you have San Fran. +100 odds, $100 to win $100.

...I have SEA (Myers), you have San Fran (Any kicker).

Follow-up on this:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41680806/sources-49ers-ink-kicker-matthew-wright-jake-moody-hurt

...The Niners signed Matthew Wright. They tried out four kickers and chose Wright over Bullock and two others.
...Wright played in one game in 2023 for Carolina. He played six games (for two teams) in 2022.
...Guy has played sparingly. He's a 28% Touchback guy (which is low). Admittedly, he has made a few long kicks.

It's a factor in the game. SEA goes in with the better kicker. They'll be more confident in situations.

I don't like the 49er camp right now. I view SEA +3.5 as a good (but maybe not great) bet.

[johnnyvegas13]

Chuck I would need more than 3.5 to take Seattle tonight

And it’s hard to see niners losing b2b division games

I am passing here

[ChuckyTheGoat]

THUR: -3/3. Seahawks lose. In retrospect, not my best pick ever. I think there was a path for them to cover.
...Coming out of that game some doubt about who the SEA qb should be. So, maybe not a great pick.

[khicks26]

You got some nice line value on TB Jax and Tenn this week Chuck surprised you're not trying to middle the NO/TB game at Saints +3.5.

Tenn now -3 Colts starting Richerson.

Jax now -1 plays well in London, Bears could have problems with the trip overseas.

Any thoughts on Washington to cover at +7 or does Danials come back down to earth?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You got some nice line value on TB Jax and Tenn this week Chuck surprised you're not trying to middle the NO/TB game at Saints +3.5.

Tenn now -3 Colts starting Richerson.

Jax now -1 plays well in London, Bears could have problems with the trip overseas.

Any thoughts on Washington to cover at +7 or does Danials come back down to earth?

Hi, K. Thanks for the note. I'm finalizing a few things for my Sunday card.

Trying to get a read on the market factors. Should have at least one more play.

1) I played Tampa Bay b4 the NewOrl/KanCity game. Thought the small Dog looked good.
...My personal bias is that I prefer Haener to Rattler. I view Haener as being more solid.
...Rattler lost his job to Caleb Williams and had to transfer from Okla to South Carolina.

2) Jax was honestly a play that I was shaky on.
...The line move now has it close to a pk-em.
...And that's the way I view the game. A virtual toss-up, so my ticket has marginal value.

3) Very interesting on the Ind/Ten line move.
...In my mind Richardson is the starter. So, Flacco = a downgrade.
...But the Fantasy FB guys go Flacco's TD rate. Game looks backwards to me.
...As of right now, I don't plan to hedge back. Have to think about it.

Looking at a few more things. Will re-post on Sunday.

[khicks26]

Hi, K. Thanks for the note. I'm finalizing a few things for my Sunday card.

Trying to get a read on the market factors. Should have at least one more play.

1) I played Tampa Bay b4 the NewOrl/KanCity game. Thought the small Dog looked good.
...My personal bias is that I prefer Haener to Rattler. I view Haener as being more solid.
...Rattler lost his job to Caleb Williams and had to transfer from Okla to South Carolina.

2) Jax was honestly a play that I was shaky on.
...The line move now has it close to a pk-em.
...And that's the way I view the game. A virtual toss-up, so my ticket has marginal value.

3) Very interesting on the Ind/Ten line move.
...In my mind Richardson is the starter. So, Flacco = a downgrade.
...But the Fantasy FB guys go Flacco's TD rate. Game looks backwards to me.
...As of right now, I don't plan to hedge back. Have to think about it.

Looking at a few more things. Will re-post on Sunday.

Nice foresight on your part you have to feel good about the line moves.

Chris Raybon had a good point on the TB/NO game. Is Carr really worth a 5-point swing? But yeah, I'm not betting on a rookie playing a D that blitzes a lot.

Richardson has accuracy problems which kills the WR production which hurts fantasy scores. So Flacco is the better option for fantasy. Colts just have to ride it out with the kid because Flacco is not the long-term answer. By week 10 Fantasy Players might be a jamming him into their lineups and Flacco could be an afterthought. Richardson hasn't even played a whole season yet and just might figure some thing out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, k. Some of the lookahead bets are luck. I am holding a pretty bad Brown ticket this week, ugh.

Home Field Advantage rates less and less in NFL in recent years. So, any small Road Dog may be value if the teams are even. I thought Tampa was a little unlucky @Atl. If the Chiefs blew out the Saints, the line might erode. I lucked out on Carr getting injured.

I do watch that Raybon/Stuckey NFL 6-pack video. I tend to line up WITH them (more than AGAINST them).

I honestly don't think the markets have a good read on Richardson. He's super-athletic, so the Colt Net Yards per Play was pretty good with Richardson. Honestly, the biggest issue with Richardson (in my eyes) is the Hazard rate. What is his Probability of getting knocked out of a game he starts? It honestly might be 20%!!

[khicks26]

Salud, k. Some of the lookahead bets are luck. I am holding a pretty bad Brown ticket this week, ugh.

Home Field Advantage rates less and less in NFL in recent years. So, any small Road Dog may be value if the teams are even. I thought Tampa was a little unlucky @Atl. If the Chiefs blew out the Saints, the line might erode. I lucked out on Carr getting injured.

I do watch that Raybon/Stuckey NFL 6-pack video. I tend to line up WITH them (more than AGAINST them).

I honestly don't think the markets have a good read on Richardson. He's super-athletic, so the Colt Net Yards per Play was pretty good with Richardson. Honestly, the biggest issue with Richardson (in my eyes) is the Hazard rate. What is his Probability of getting knocked out of a game he starts? It honestly might be 20%!!

LOL Yeah. He needs to learn when to run and when to just throw the ball away. I think the game will slow down for him just needs some time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* BALT Ravens -6.5 1.87: 1 to win .87

...I bet this one with some hesitation. I'm fully aware of the rocket start that Daniels has gotten off to.
...Two small asterisks on the 4-1 WASH start. a) They probably lose the game vs the Giants, if K Gano doesn't get injured on the opening kickoff. b) The Browns are truly a mess. How much credit can you give for that win?
...The # is a little more than what I was hoping to lay. Reverse line movement trap?
...The public consensus stats sure seem to point to WASH. How easy is it to take +6.5 with the hot rookie QB?
...Lastly, I rate the Wash K Siebert as one of the weakest in the league. They haven't needed him much the L3 games. Balt K Tucker finally made a bomb (56-yards) vs the Bengals, so maybe his confidence is back.

[Igor_1965]

First half Baltimore ML is a GOY type play for me

1* BALT Ravens -6.5 1.87: 1 to win .87

...I bet this one with some hesitation. I'm fully aware of the rocket start that Daniels has gotten off to.
...Two small asterisks on the 4-1 WASH start. a) They probably lose the game vs the Giants, if K Gano doesn't get injured on the opening kickoff. b) The Browns are truly a mess. How much credit can you give for that win?
...The # is a little more than what I was hoping to lay. Reverse line movement trap?
...The public consensus stats sure seem to point to WASH. How easy is it to take +6.5 with the hot rookie QB?
...Lastly, I rate the Wash K Siebert as one of the weakest in the league. They haven't needed him much the L3 games. Balt K Tucker finally made a bomb (56-yards) vs the Bengals, so maybe his confidence is back.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

First half Baltimore ML is a GOY type play for me

Nice post, Igor. Good Luck on the play!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3rd unit on Jags +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

2* Chicago Bears +1.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...Hedging back w/ the Bears. Against my three units of exposure on the Jags.
...Hard to make a case that the Jags should be favored. Line moved far enough. Feel good about my shot @ a middle.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* DALLAS Cowboys +3.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...# has drifted out further. Seems like it's too much.
...I know DALL has injuries. And I know Det is off a bye.
...Goff comes off a perfect 18/18 game. Very hard to repeat that performance.

[Tomatero]

2* Chicago Bears +1.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...Hedging back w/ the Bears. Against my three units of exposure on the Jags.
...Hard to make a case that the Jags should be favored. Line moved far enough. Feel good about my shot @ a middle.

Nice hit here buddy!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice hit here buddy!!

Thanks. One of the few. Will sum up the wreckage later.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, this was gross. My Wk06 results mirror the public having a big week. The Road Favs mostly rolled this week.

*Browns do cover the early #. Bucs also cover an early #.
*Seahawks were lame.
*Get the Jags at a Dog price. Close as fav but get rolled.
*Broncos get rolled. Chargers had only won once @DEN in the last decade.
*Get the Titans at a Dog price. They also close Fav but lose.

*Ravens cover by the hook. One against the grain play.
*Hedge back on the Bears at the late #. They win outright.
*Cowboys lay an egg @Home. WTF was that?

(Week) -7.34/17
(coll) -0.05

Ending BAL = 146.18 (ytd: +46.18)

[Tomatero]

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 6 bets at #BetMGM    81% on Steelers -3 ✅81% on Lions -3 ✅76% on Bills -1.5 ✅75% on Bengals -3.5 ✅75% on Falcons -6 ✅72% on Buccaneers -3.5 ✅66% on Packers -5.5 ✅64% on 49ers -3.5 ✅64% on Texans -6.5 ✅Public ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 6 bets at #BetMGM    81% on Steelers -3 ✅81% on Lions -3 ✅76% on Bills -1.5 ✅75% on Bengals -3.5 ✅75% on Falcons -6 ✅72% on Buccaneers -3.5 ✅66% on Packers -5.5 ✅64% on 49ers -3.5 ✅64% on Texans -6.5 ✅Public ��

Toma, that's amazing. And most of em weren't close.