(NFL) Week Four plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Denver +6.5 2.22: 2 to win 2.44
...I'm anti-Jets. Two-game win-streak against bottom quartile opponents.
...The talking heads are buzzing about Rodgers. His Rush yards per game are anemic.

1* DETROIT -4 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Can you think of a phonier 3-0 team than Seattle?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lookahead play from last week's thread:

(Week 04) 1* NY GIANTS +6.5 1.91 (vs Dall) on the Lookahead line: 1 to win .91
...I could see this # shortening up, based on Sunday's results.
...Mentioned how strange the game-play was in NYG/Was game. Giants would have gone to Overtime (at a min) if Gano had not gotten injured on the opening play.
...In that game Giants scored 3 TDs and conceded 0 TDs...but still lost! Heard that happened only one other time in league history.

[Shark]

That’s a bad number on denv

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One nice angle on the Lions: *This is a Double Revenge game for DET.

This should be a circled-game for DET. Sea has won in Detroit the L2 years. With the Seahawks coming in @3-0, Campbell can use this as a Statement Game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One nice angle on the Lions: *This is a Double Revenge game for DET.

This should be a circled-game for DET. Sea has won in Detroit the L2 years. With the Seahawks coming in @3-0, Campbell can use this as a Statement Game.

2nd unit on DET -3.5 1.89: 1 to win .89

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Tenn Titans +1 1.87: 1 to win .87
...This is based on the Dolphin QB situation.
...Thompson was knocked out of the game on Sunday. And Tim Boyle was the solution?
...If Boyle has to start, understand that he's like a AA Minor league player. 4/12 lifetime TD/INT ratio.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Jax Jaguars +6 1.91 (@Buff) in tonite's game: 1 to win .91
...Really didn't expect to see this #. See some reasons to be pro-Jag.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Jax Jaguars +6 1.91 (@Buff) in tonite's game: 1 to win .91
...Really didn't expect to see this #. See some reasons to be pro-Jag.

(Week 4) 1* Jax Jaguars +4.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Whatever happens in tonite's game, I'm happy taking the Jags @ +4.5 going into Houston.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* INDY Colts +1.5 1.96: 1 to win .96
...Think this has to be +EV.
...Steelers getting by with a backup QB. Steelers currently rank #1 in the luck rankings:
*Gm1 @ Atl: critical error when the ATL center shot-gun snaps the ball into motion-man, gift-wraps fumble to Watt.
*Gm2 @ Den: low-scoring win against rookie QB.
*Gm3 vs Charg: even game, Steelers benefit from Herbert exiting with injury. Backup QB is ineffective.

...Hard to be that impressed by the Steelers. False favorite? Steelers sure don't look like a STRONG favorite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* INDY Colts +1.5 1.96: 1 to win .96
...Think this has to be +EV.
...Steelers getting by with a backup QB. Steelers currently rank #1 in the luck rankings:
*Gm1 @ Atl: critical error when the ATL center shot-gun snaps the ball into motion-man, gift-wraps fumble to Watt.
*Gm2 @ Den: low-scoring win against rookie QB.
*Gm3 vs Charg: even game, Steelers benefit from Herbert exiting with injury. Backup QB is ineffective.

...Hard to be that impressed by the Steelers. False favorite? Steelers sure don't look like a STRONG favorite.

Adding two units on INDY +2.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Week 05) 1* MINN VIKINGS +1 1.91 (vs Jets) on the Lookahead line: 1 to win .91
...I do not believe in Rodgers. Jets got to 2-1 versus shaky Strength of Schedule....Viking HC continues to gain respect. Locking in the +1 Home Dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Played this across the street (when site was down). Adding it here:

2* 284 LAS VEGAS raiders +2.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88


...I don't see how this # can be right. Line moved based on injuries to Crosby/Adams.
...Juxtapose that to the Brown injuries. Both Brown Off Tackles out, etc.
...DE Garrett dinged up and gimpy. Cancels out top pass-rusher on each team.
...Brown performance has been dreadful. Team leader Watson pulling a check, said he's not interested in running.
...Can't justify the Browns as a cross-country Road Fav. -1.2 Net Yards per Play.

...Rookie TE Bowers is a monster. Looks like a young Dave Casper.

...RAID +2.5 in a bounceback spot. I know Pierce wasn't happy with the effort last week.

Adding a 3rd unit on RAID +3 1.85: 1 to win .85

[ChuckyTheGoat]

THUR: +.91/1. Giants cover the early #.

[khicks26]

Lookahead play from last week's thread:

(Week 04) 1* NY GIANTS +6.5 1.91 (vs Dall) on the Lookahead line: 1 to win .91
...I could see this # shortening up, based on Sunday's results.
...Mentioned how strange the game-play was in NYG/Was game. Giants would have gone to Overtime (at a min) if Gano had not gotten injured on the opening play.
...In that game Giants scored 3 TDs and conceded 0 TDs...but still lost! Heard that happened only one other time in league history.

Dam Chuck you run good. Best kicker in the league misses the field goal the Goat wins again.

[khicks26]

(Week 4) 1* Jax Jaguars +4.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Whatever happens in tonite's game, I'm happy taking the Jags @ +4.5 going into Houston.

1* INDY Colts +1.5 1.96: 1 to win .96
...Think this has to be +EV.
...Steelers getting by with a backup QB. Steelers currently rank #1 in the luck rankings:
*Gm1 @ Atl: critical error when the ATL center shot-gun snaps the ball into motion-man, gift-wraps fumble to Watt.
*Gm2 @ Den: low-scoring win against rookie QB.
*Gm3 vs Charg: even game, Steelers benefit from Herbert exiting with injury. Backup QB is ineffective.

...Hard to be that impressed by the Steelers. False favorite? Steelers sure don't look like a STRONG favorite.

They just keep coming!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, k. I'm trying.

Jags were a little lucky. That +4.5 was b4 the Monday Nite game. Thought about re-betting, but I didn't want to add fuel to the fire.

Any update from the Walter camp? See some of my other NFL posts. I truly believe that the public method of NFL capping is way out of whack.
...Specifically, I'm talking about the bettors reviewing the injury list and then determining what will happen.
...Take the Cle/Raid game as an example. After Crosby/Adams were ruled out, the line flipped and consensus went to CLE. As if the Cle injuries didn't matter.
...Anyway, just my opinion. Sometimes it's best to go against the masses.

[khicks26]

Thx, k. I'm trying.

Jags were a little lucky. That +4.5 was b4 the Monday Nite game. Thought about re-betting, but I didn't want to add fuel to the fire.

Any update from the Walter camp? See some of my other NFL posts. I truly believe that the public method of NFL capping is way out of whack.
...Specifically, I'm talking about the bettors reviewing the injury list and then determining what will happen.
...Take the Cle/Raid game as an example. After Crosby/Adams were ruled out, the line flipped and consensus went to CLE. As if the Cle injuries didn't matter.
...Anyway, just my opinion. Sometimes it's best to go against the masses.

You have to be good to be lucky. Walter had a rough few weeks to start, last week I think he was in the black.

This week he had Cowboys ATL, Hos, Cinn, Den, TB, Raiders (1 unit) and Tenn. Cinn Den and Tenn be bigger bets. So it look like he will be plus money this week. He must be reading your threads. LOL

[khicks26]

Thx, k. I'm trying.

Jags were a little lucky. That +4.5 was b4 the Monday Nite game. Thought about re-betting, but I didn't want to add fuel to the fire.

Any update from the Walter camp? See some of my other NFL posts. I truly believe that the public method of NFL capping is way out of whack.
...Specifically, I'm talking about the bettors reviewing the injury list and then determining what will happen.
...Take the Cle/Raid game as an example. After Crosby/Adams were ruled out, the line flipped and consensus went to CLE. As if the Cle injuries didn't matter.
...Anyway, just my opinion. Sometimes it's best to go against the masses.

Yeah I agree with you. Its not just about injuries, its also coaching, the system and situations. Walt ended up talking himself off the Chargers because of injuries, I bet them early at + 8.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You have to be good to be lucky. Walter had a rough few weeks to start, last week I think he was in the black.

This week he had Cowboys ATL, Hos, Cinn, Den, TB, Raiders (1 unit) and Tenn. Cinn Den and Tenn be bigger bets. So it look like he will be plus money this week. He must be reading your threads. LOL

Nice. I know he works at it. Just that I've learned to throw out the NARRATIVE handicappers:
*It's so easy to build a case that (in your mind) can't lose.

These NFL lines are pretty sharp. There's always a reason to sway someone to either side. I just don't like the cappers who view it as a logic problem.

[khicks26]

Nice. I know he works at it. Just that I've learned to throw out the NARRATIVE handicappers:
*It's so easy to build a case that (in your mind) can't lose.

These NFL lines are pretty sharp. There's always a reason to sway someone to either side. I just don't like the cappers who view it as a logic problem.

Good way to look at it. IN the end its your money and pick.

[khicks26]

2* Denver +6.5 2.22: 2 to win 2.44
...I'm anti-Jets. Two-game win-streak against bottom quartile opponents.
...The talking heads are buzzing about Rodgers. His Rush yards per game are anemic.

1* DETROIT -4 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Can you think of a phonier 3-0 team than Seattle?

One nice angle on the Lions: *This is a Double Revenge game for DET.

This should be a circled-game for DET. Sea has won in Detroit the L2 years. With the Seahawks coming in @3-0, Campbell can use this as a Statement Game.

Love your reasoning on the Lions here. The first loss costs the Lions a playoff spot two years ago.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Love your reasoning on the Lions here. The first loss costs the Lions a playoff spot two years ago.

Thanks, hope we get there. I will say that I occasionally see a Week 4 spot where the records don't make sense.

When you've played three games, your Strength of Schedule might be massive. Or it might be very weak.

I viewed the Jets' 2-1 with skepticism. Handled by the Niners, 2-1 (narrowly) versus teams that might be Bottom 4 in the league.

I view the Seahawks similarly. Win vs Nix in debut, OT win @NewEng, and home win versus QB-depleted Dolphin team. Lions should be on alert.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of results:

*Only loser on Jax last Monday. Everything else gets there.

*Giants cover the early #.

*Broncos wins outright.

*Lions cover. Goff has an all-timer going 18/18 with a TD reception.

*Titans win outright. I was really playing this with a prospect of facing Boyle.
...The market seemed to like Huntley more. He was in Dolphin camp for only two weeks. Think this became an issue with all the pre-snap penalties.

*Jaguars do cover a bad # @ Houston. I was unsure of this one with Pederson being on the hot-seat.

*Colts win outright. Even with Flacco coming off the bench.

*Raiders win outright. Very good team effort. Watson is a disgrace and doesn't deserve to wear the Brown jersey.

(week) +11.44/14

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(coll) +9.78
(wnba) -.02

End BAL = 166.41 (ytd = +66.41)