(Coll FB) Week Two plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Five 1* plays:

*WYOM +9.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
*Jax St +1.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*Rice +6.5 1.90: 1 to win .90
*Oregon -13 1.87: 1 to win .87
*UCLA +2.5 1.98: 1 to win .98

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some commentary:

*Wyom off to a slow start, BYU off the upset win. WYOM has an excellent kicker in Hoyland. At 7200 feet Hoyland's kicks should be a factor in staying within the #.

*JaxSt came up short in the opener, lost the cover on a long run late in 2nd game. Line has swung to make East Mich the fav. Rich Rod likes this team, looks like a value dog.

*Rice laid an egg in the opener, crushed in 2nd game. Cross-town opponent, Owls look like a value dog.

*I really didn't want to play the Ducks in this game. Just that the # looks absurd. At face value Ducks looked underwhelming in first two games. Idaho is one of the top FCS teams, and Boise might the Group of 5 representative in the CFP. Line move is too much, laying < two TDs against a re-building Beaver team.

*Full respect to the Indiana re-build. Understand that at least nine of those starters came along with Cignetti from James Madison. Hoosiers now formidable, but the line looks whacked. Bruins didn't get hurt THAT BADLY in the coaching change. Rested Home Dog with a Travel Edge, yes, sign me up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Five 1* plays:

*WYOM +9.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
*Jax St +1.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*Rice +6.5 1.90: 1 to win .90
*Oregon -13 1.87: 1 to win .87
*UCLA +2.5 1.98: 1 to win .98

2nd units on:
*Jax St +2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*UCLA +3 1.94: 1 to win .94

Added plays:
1* UAB +21 1.86: 1 to win .86
2* SO MISS +11 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* TEXAS ST +2 1.95: 1 to win .95

2* KENTUCKY +24.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Going against a steamroller here. I thought KY would be improved this year.
...Cats off a horrible showing. South Carolina Def Line looked incredibly good and MADE KY look bad.
...Stoops called out his team for mistakes. I'm expecting a much better showing by their Off/Def Lines.
...KY QB Vandagriff used to play @Georgia. He was a big prospect coming out of HS. # looks bloated.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on TEXAS ST +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

[johnnyvegas13]

Whisky at home vs bama ???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on WYOM +10 1.93: 1 to win .93

3rd unit on SO MISS +11.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Whisky at home vs bama ???

Don't really like em.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ya i dont love it either

had to mention w close game vs south Florida tho

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on UAB +24 1.91: 1 to win .91

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some UAB notes:
*Dilfer knew that the game last week @LA-Monroe was going to be tricky. The new LA-Monroe HC used to coach @UAB, he knew the UAB schemes. That coach prepped in off-season to beat UAB.
*UAB played a bad game. That result is reflected in this week's line.
*ARK HC Pittman is on the hot-seat. He almost got canned @ the end of last year. He could have used that win over OklaSt like blood.
*Bit of a lame-duck coach. Let one slip last week. Heavy Non-Conf fav this week, with the SEC opener on deck.
*UAB QB Zeno is a high completion% passer. I think the Blazers can hang the #.

[Eddy Munny]

Dude doesn't even know what week this is... must be an SBR thing.. Like Homie posting "NFL Week 0 Plays"

[johnnyvegas13]

Eddy check into my football thread and tell me how bad I am please

[Eddy Munny]

Eddy check into my football thread and tell me how bad I am please

Last time I did that I was thrown in jail. SBR is gay now. I won't be posting picks anymore.

I see why Laker threw in the towel.

[Waterstpub87]

Five 1* plays:

*WYOM +9.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
*Jax St +1.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*Rice +6.5 1.90: 1 to win .90
*Oregon -13 1.87: 1 to win .87
*UCLA +2.5 1.98: 1 to win .98

With you in UCLA

[ChuckyTheGoat]

With you in UCLA

Thx, Water. Enjoy your videos, especially the pace-stats. Good Luck on your plays!

[Waterstpub87]

Thanks I really appreciate that. Getting ready to post week 3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on WYOM +10 1.93: 1 to win .93

3rd unit on SO MISS +11.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

Whiffed on the Hoyland note. I see that he's Doubtful:

J. Hoyland

K/P

Doubtful - Lower Body

[jackpot269]

Some UAB notes:
*Dilfer knew that the game last week @LA-Monroe was going to be tricky. The new LA-Monroe HC used to coach @UAB, he knew the UAB schemes. That coach prepped in off-season to beat UAB.
*UAB played a bad game. That result is reflected in this week's line.
*ARK HC Pittman is on the hot-seat. He almost got canned @ the end of last year. He could have used that win over OklaSt like blood.
*Bit of a lame-duck coach. Let one slip last week. Heavy Non-Conf fav this week, with the SEC opener on deck.
*UAB QB Zeno is a high completion% passer. I think the Blazers can hang the #.

I will be researching all your picks. That is a big card, and they all look solid. Thanks for sharing your picks and info, Chucky

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I will be researching all your picks. That is a big card, and they all look solid. Thanks for sharing your picks and info, Chucky

Thanks, Jack. Trying my best. Knock on wood, hope we clear a profit.

Mentioned the Hoyland injury (Wyom). That one surprised me. I saw that he kicked last game, so I'm not sure when he picked up a knock.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Hawaii +4.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...This is a negative vote on Conf USA, who has been < impressive in Non-Conf play. Sam Houston's upset win @Rice looks like an outlier.
...I'd normally be worried about playing the Bows on the mainland. But the week off should help the travel plans.
...Sam Houston St moved up from FCS recently. Bows look to have an advantage on the lines, and the Sam Hou QB is a JUCO transfer.
...I view the Bows as a Class Edge dog. Looks like a toss-up game. Bows should have every chance to win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

With you in UCLA

3rd unit on UCLA +3.5 1.85: 1 to win .85

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* CHARLOTTE -8.5: 2 to win 1.82

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* UTSA +35 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Action play. Based on the early season results.
...My biggest question on TEX was the Def Tackles. TEX put Sweat/Murphy into the NFL as 2nd/1st Draft picks.
...The gameplay from the first two games had ColoSt/Mich playing from behind. Similarly, Texas St had UTSA down by a ton @halftime. Ergo, the rushing games were less of a factor.
...UTSA has a good Off Line and good RBs. Their gameplan will have them trying to establish the run. It's hidden in the boxscore stats but the Texas Rush DEF is in fact down from last year.
...FYI: Texas does have some RB injuries. Big Dog play, Horns need to win by > five TDs to cover.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* TCU +3 1.88: 2 to win 1.76
...Fav flips. Frogs two years removed from the NCAA title game. Off a bounceback year.
...Not the biggest Jefferson fan. His accuracy is < great, and his running style is more lumbering than quick.
...Like the Home Dog points. Will take my chances.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some random notes:

*Texas Tech is an injured team. Had injuries, four more starters injured in game @WashSt.

*How weird is it to see the Apple Cup and Civil War this early in the season?

*FLA: Frosh Lagway started @QB last week (vs Samford). Mertz likely to return from concussion this week. Former Gator Chris Doering observed pre-season practices, rated Mertz as well ahead of Lagway (despite the alums hoping for Lagway to start).

*Surprisingly good week for rivalry games. In addition to the two above, Backyard Brawl and Colo/ColoSt. True hate in these games, ColoSt DB ruptured Hunter's spleen last year on a cheap-shot.

*Not saying it hits. But SoFla in a true sandwich situation this week. DDDog/DDRoadFav...and will surely be a DD Dog again next week (@MiaFL).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* UTSA +35 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Action play. Based on the early season results.
...My biggest question on TEX was the Def Tackles. TEX put Sweat/Murphy into the NFL as 2nd/1st Draft picks.
...The gameplay from the first two games had ColoSt/Mich playing from behind. Similarly, Texas St had UTSA down by a ton @halftime. Ergo, the rushing games were less of a factor.
...UTSA has a good Off Line and good RBs. Their gameplan will have them trying to establish the run. It's hidden in the boxscore stats but the Texas Rush DEF is in fact down from last year.
...FYI: Texas does have some RB injuries. Big Dog play, Horns need to win by > five TDs to cover.

Adding two units on UTSA +35 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...1) Horns come off two awesome showings.
...2) They have to be very full of themselves.
...3) Michigan might be just that bad.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Whiffed on the Hoyland note. I see that he's Doubtful:

J. Hoyland

K/P

Doubtful - Lower Body

Does anyone have an accurate injury update on Hoyland?

I now see a rpt that he's Questionable. Could play:

J. Hoyland	K/P	Questionable - Lower Body (Sat, Sep 7)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on TEXAS ST +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

1 unit: Ariz St +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just a hedge-back.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

THU: -1.09/3. Texas St loses, but the hedge wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding two units on UTSA +35 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...1) Horns come off two awesome showings.
...2) They have to be very full of themselves.
...3) Michigan might be just that bad.

Added plays:
0.5* UTSA +35.5 1.91: 0.5 to win .45.
0.5* OREG ST +17 1.91: 0.5 to win .45. Just a hedge-back.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* LSU -6 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

[jackpot269]

All plays are to win $100 on football. If different ill post what it is.

What I'm taking so far this week Chucky.

UNLV/KAN............. o57 -110
KAN ST................... -7 -108
ALA .........................-16 -108
LSU ..........................-6 -108
MEM/FSU............... U54 -108
NO. TEXAS ...........+10 -108
UTSA ..................... +36 -110

GL this week Chucky


I looked at the UCLA game several times and could not find a reason for either team.
I only bet Hawaii when they are home, and over the years especially when they have been + odds I've done well on them.
Like your Oregon bet with the hedge!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* LSU -6 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

Brief writeup on this game:
*Gamecocks are so easy to back here. They looked great @ Kentucky.
*Why was the SoCarol/KY result such an outlier? I really think it was KY lack of focus.
*Go back to the opening games. SoCarol really should have lost to Old Dom. KY blew out SoMiss in a 35-main rain-shortened game, so it really could have been worse.
*QB Sellers has barely played @ the college level. I don't see him as a threat versus improved LSU 2ndary.
*South Carolina DEF Line dominated the game @KY. But the LSU Off Line is well-regarded. I see Kelly putting the game on his Off Line.
*QB Nussmeier was accurate vs USC. I see LSU as value, as we're now laying < a TD.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

All plays are to win $100 on football. If different ill post what it is.

What I'm taking so far this week Chucky.

UNLV/KAN............. o57 -110
KAN ST................... -7 -108
ALA .........................-16 -108
LSU ..........................-6 -108
MEM/FSU............... U54 -108
NO. TEXAS ...........+10 -108
UTSA ..................... +36 -110

GL this week Chucky


I looked at the UCLA game several times and could not find a reason for either team.
I only bet Hawaii when they are home, and over the years especially when they have been + odds I've done well on them.
Like your Oregon bet with the hedge!!

Hi, Jack. You know I have no shortage of opinions on these games. Some notes:
1) Dog bettors will be on Wisky. They have a veteran QB, but how sharp is he? Wisky lost by 14 to OhioSt in a similar spot.

2) See my LSU writeup above. I like it. Purely based on last week's game SouthCarol looks like a CFP team, and I don't think they're that good.

3) FWIW Phil Steele likes NoTex this week. The QB is a transfer from TCU, so better than you normally see @ NoTex. Texas Tech is down several starters, check the injury report.

4) Have written about this game. UTSA is a good program, and the Horns have to overpriced. Sure hope Arch Manning doesn't do us in during the last 2:00!!

Good Luck on the plays, Jack.