(Plays 9/2 - 9/8)

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-24, 06:44 PM

(Coll FB) Week One plays*

*Note: Early week #s move quickly. So, these #s sometimes disappear quickly.

2* plays (N=4). These are mostly based on over-reactions.

MICHIGAN
+6.5 (2.00): 1 to win 1.00
+6.5 (1.91): 1 to win .91

Jacksonville St +28 1.95: 2 to win 1.90

East Carol +2 1.87: 2 to win 1.74

SYRACUSE +3 1.95: 2 to win 1.90

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-24, 08:24 PM

3rd unit on SYRA +3.5 1.85: 1 to win .85
...Syracuse does have the Ohio St QB (McCord) from last year.
...Feel like GATech is paying for their early season success.

2* UTSA +2.5 2.02: 2 to win 2.04
...These teams look similar. But UTSA comes out of a Conf w/ a stronger SOS. And very short travel, 52 miles.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-24, 08:35 PM

2* South Carolina +10 1.86
...Gamecocks struggled last wk, Sellers needs to play better. KY beat tomato-can Rodemaker, I'm giving them no credit for beating a guy who would quit on his team.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-01-24, 08:48 PM

2* UMass +20 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Like the bounce-back spot.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* South Carolina +10 1.86
...Gamecocks struggled last wk, Sellers needs to play better. KY beat tomato-can Rodemaker, I'm giving them no credit for beating a guy who would quit on his team.

3rd unit on South Carolina +10 1.94: 1 to win .94

1* SMU -9.5 1.82 (vs BYU): 1 to win .82

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-02-24, 11:56 AM

Gl chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Gl chuck

Thx, John. Just my opinions. Do as you see fit.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 02:00 PM

2* Army +3.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Army changed their offense after a 2-6 start last year. Back to hammering away with the option rush attack.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Army +3.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Army changed their offense after a 2-6 start last year. Back to hammering away with the option rush attack.

Army QB Daily is quickly becoming my favorite player. Powerful runner, he'll actually throw the lead block on the option. Watch this collision:

**homie1975** · 09-02-24, 07:11 PM

Go get em CHUCKer !

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 11:53 PM

Think these #s look insane:

*3rd unit on MICH +7.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Don't see how they can be catching > +7.

*4th unit on South Carol +10.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Don't see how they can be catching > +10.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-03-24, 12:07 PM

2* Tex Tech +2.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Tx Tech off a poor showing vs Abil Christian. The Abil Christian QB was a former Red Raider, so maybe not a huge gulf in class.
...Wash St was one of the teams that got hung out to dry on the Conference re-alignment.
...QB Ward to MiaFL. I'll take the points.

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-03-24, 02:38 PM

I like Michigan as well this weekend chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-03-24, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Army +3.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Army changed their offense after a 2-6 start last year. Back to hammering away with the option rush attack.

3rd unit on Army +4.5 1.88: 1 to win .88

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-03-24, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

I like Michigan as well this weekend chuck

Hoping, John. Very easy for people to look Texas after last week's games.

What I like about MICH:
1) Def Tackles look great.
2) CB Johnson is an All-American.
3) TE Loveland is an All-American.
4) Michigan offense will challenge Texas Def Line and 2ndary more. QB Warren looks solid.
5) Mich K Zvada was drilling it. Kicker points keep it close.

Biggest concern. This QB Oriji looks like a loser. Can't count on him.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-04-24, 10:01 PM

3rd unit on Jacksonville St +31 1.85: 1 to win .85
...Know I'm on an island. But I really don't get this line.
...They had a terrible first game. Last year they won nine games (including a bowl game).

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-05-24, 01:04 PM

*23 units in play.
...Like my plays going in. Per usual, trying to extract some BTCL value...and have secured some of that.
...This week is very much based on over-reactions. Some of these #s look out-of-whack to me based on YTD results.

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-05-24, 01:56 PM

Gl tonight Chuck

i cant believe it’s opening day lfg

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-05-24, 05:45 PM

2* LA-Laf -14 1.96 (@KennSt): 2 to win 1.92

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 12:26 AM

2* Temple +13.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

**johnnyvegas13** · 09-07-24, 06:58 AM

Let’s go Chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 11:43 AM

2* UCF (CENTRAL FLA) -21 1.91: 2 to win 1.82

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 01:01 PM

2* NORTH DAKOTA +6.5 1.86: 2 to win 1.72

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 04:16 PM

2* Gard Webb +37.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
...Mentioned the turnover @James Mad with HC departing.
...JMU off a Su/ATS win. Feel like they're still overpriced.
...One personnel note. I expected WASH tfr Morris to start @QB. But Barnett started the opener, which tells me that Morris is either carrying a knock OR he didn't look so good in Fall camp.

**franz555** · 09-07-24, 04:21 PM

BOL Chuck

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by franz555

BOL Chuck

Thx, Franz. Trying my best.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-07-24, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Tex Tech +2.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Tx Tech off a poor showing vs Abil Christian. The Abil Christian QB was a former Red Raider, so maybe not a huge gulf in class.
...Wash St was one of the teams that got hung out to dry on the Conference re-alignment.
...QB Ward to MiaFL. I'll take the points.

1* WASH ST +3 1.82: 1 to win .82
...# flipped. So, small hedge-back on this game.

1* NEW MEX ST +23.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...I know that QB Pavia has departed.
...# just looks too fat. And the line kept rising.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-08-24, 12:49 AM

Day: +8.67/37. I can call it on the late games.

Summary of Results with Commentary:
*Fair to say that I had buyer's remorse quite early on MICH. If I knew they were going to lay an egg, I wouldn't have bet em. Looks like a stupid bet when you're relying on a Walk-on QB to beat a ranked team.

*Outrightdogs.com: ECU, Syra, South Carolina, Army, North Dakota.
...South Carolina controlled the game. DEF LINE scrubbed out the KY QB and gave him nothing.
...Army rushed for > 400 yards. Love the Army Off Line and rushing options at RB/QB.
...North Dakota was a pleasant surprise. Were down 24-7, rallied to win 27-24.

*JaxSt coughed up the cover by conceding a 40-yard rush TD in last 2:00.

*LA-Laf and UCF were decisive covers by ten points each.

*How many touts had Gardner Webb? Gard Webb actually led @ half and had to a chance to win late (as a 37-pt dog). See if the James Madison HC makes a QB switch this week.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-09-24, 10:25 PM

NFL - Week: -.37/11

...Profitable week, thx to CollFB: +8.30

*End BAL: 149.55 (ytd: +49.55)

...Pending plays:
*One unit on Politics: Dems UND 269.5
*NFL - Futures
*Weekly Foot - NFL/Coll