(NFL) Week One plays

[veriableodds]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ha-ha-ha. Hoping for the best, Veri.

Veri, gotta love the testosterone-filled posts in the forum. EZ to talk a good game, much harder to cash tickets.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on INDY +2.5 2.06: 1 to win 1.06

1* CINCINNATI Bengals -8 1.93: 1 to win .93

3rd unit on INDY +3 1.95: 1 to win .95
...# has ticked up to 3. True public influence on this line, based on the Texans buzz. Book report says that the House is heavily skewed to HOU, had to move the # to balance their action.

2nd unit on CINCINNATI -7.5 1.95
...# has ticked down again. I hate people hanging on Chase's jock. What sort of team will the Patriots field?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week: -.37/11
...Feel fortunate to get out close to break-even.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding one unit to these Futures. (Before today's games):

1* Detroit Lions to win the NFC 4.60: 1 to win 3.60

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding one unit to these Futures. (Before today's games):

1* Detroit Lions to win the NFC 4.60: 1 to win 3.60

In lining up the NFC teams, the Lions are the only logical conclusion for me. Can find weaknesses on every other team.

*Niners: look shot to me. Too many injuries, contract disputes. They don't figure to earn a top 2 seed.

*Vikings: are coming from so far off the radar. Props to the HC. Jefferson is an animal, is Darnold a Super Bowl QB?

*WASH: can't imagine them getting there in Daniels' rookie season. And we mentioned the Injury risk.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding one unit to these Futures. (Before today's games):

1* Detroit Lions to win the NFC 4.60: 1 to win 3.60

Bump. I whiffed on my Futures. Didn't get the Houston loss on Sunday.

Will sum up when everything goes final. Still have three Futures pending, and all have hope:
*DET to win NFC. They secure the 1-seed. They get the bye, and I think they will have a real Home Field Advantage.
*BUFF and BALT to win the Super Bowl. Both still very live. If I get at least one of the two into the AFC Final, I'll feel like I got good Value-for-Money.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

To Win the Super Bowl:
*BALT Ravens 11.00: 1 to win 10.00
*BUFF Bills 15.33: 1 to win 14.33
...Similar reasons for backing them. So, I can group this writeup together.
...Simple reason for these plays. They've won too many games over the L5 years to be < legitimate threats.
...I view the NFC as being light. At least a 60% chance that the Champ comes out of the AFC.
...Each team has accumulated > 50 Regular Season wins over the L5 years. Just that they've had playoff shortcomings.
...The Chief stigma is too much now. Mahomes seems to win and win. As if he has a stranglehold on the Lombardi trophy.
...I thought the Chief ad campaign was too much last year. Now, the bandwagon has to be too much.
...I heavily discount MIA as a serious threat. Tua injury risk, and Dolphin inability to win in cold weather.
...Will take these prices. In my mind, the price-gap can't be that much from KC to Bal/Buf.

Bump. Bills in play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In lining up the NFC teams, the Lions are the only logical conclusion for me. Can find weaknesses on every other team.

*Niners: look shot to me. Too many injuries, contract disputes. They don't figure to earn a top 2 seed.

*Vikings: are coming from so far off the radar. Props to the HC. Jefferson is an animal, is Darnold a Super Bowl QB?

*WASH: can't imagine them getting there in Daniels' rookie season. And we mentioned the Injury risk.

Looks like Daniels might be the story. I'm amazed that WASH could improve that much in one season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NFL Futures) -7.00/7
...Some were Close but No Cigar. Some were just awful.
...6 units on the 1st page + one unit on the Lions.
...Was actually close on the Texans. At nine wins, they win the meaningless game in Final week.
...The Ravens/Bills thing still spins my head. How many times?