(Plays 5/28 - 6/2)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*NBA playoffs winding down.

Honestly might not expect too many players during the summer:
*A few tennis plays.
*A few spot plays.

I will never force action on plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning BAL = 140.83 (ytd = +40.83)

[agendaman]

chucky-mtk down hston in nfl this year.thei qb stroud now in his 2nd. yr. will be a moalso bet the 4s at -195 to win the division titlle and plus 250 to win conrence title.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky-mtk down hston in nfl this year.thei qb stroud now in his 2nd. yr. will be a moalso bet the 4s at -195 to win the division titlle and plus 250 to win conrence title.

OK, agenda. I'm marking it down. Thanks!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (NBA) DALL Mavs (gm4) pk (1.89): 1 to win .89.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (NBA) DALL Mavs (gm4) pk (1.89): 1 to win .89.

Here's my angle:
*Number is too cheap.
*Ratcheted down for Lively absence. I rate Powell as serviceable. He will get backup center minutes.
*I really don't expect Kleber to play. He rushed back from injury. Just for emergency duty.
*MINN confidence has taken a blow. I think DALL is motivated to finish it tonite. Only one more Home game, in case they lose.
*Conley is once again on the Injury Rpt. Tells me that he's still carrying a knock.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (NBA) DALL Mavs (gm4) pk (1.89): 1 to win .89.

Day: 0-2. Michelsen gets schooled. And the Mavs go down.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's my angle:
*Number is too cheap.
*Ratcheted down for Lively absence. I rate Powell as serviceable. He will get backup center minutes.
*I really don't expect Kleber to play. He rushed back from injury. Just for emergency duty.
*MINN confidence has taken a blow. I think DALL is motivated to finish it tonite. Only one more Home game, in case they lose.
*Conley is once again on the Injury Rpt. Tells me that he's still carrying a knock.

I'm not 2nd-guessing the play. Just questioning how they deployed the centers:
*Gafford was again a force.
...Wish Powell would have got Kleber's minutes. Can't stand Kleber, and he was coming in cold.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-2. Michelsen gets schooled. And the Mavs go down.

(ATP Tennis) 1* Squire +2.5 sets (2.19) (vs Auger-Al): 1 to win 1.19.
...Think he can win a set.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-2. Michelsen gets schooled. And the Mavs go down.

A little surprised that Alcaraz dropped a set. He does advance, 3-1.
...I was convinced that Alcaraz was primed to win the French this yr. But his clay-court season has been < perfect.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(ATP Tennis) 1* Squire +2.5 sets (2.19) (vs Auger-Al): 1 to win 1.19.
...Think he can win a set.

1* (ATP) Shapovalov +1.5 Sets 1.88 (vs Hurkacz): 1 to win .88.
...Shapo missed time with injury late in 2023. Because of that, his ranking is way lower than it should be.
...He just dominated Tiafoe. Aces 21 to 1. He's healthy and in form.
...Should have every chance to win here. At a minimum, he should get to tie-breaks. If he gets to 5th Set, our bet wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Dall mavs (gm5) +4.5 2.02: 1 to win 1.02.
...This is based on Lively being back.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-2. Michelsen gets schooled. And the Mavs go down.

Day: 2-0. Squire does win a set. Mavs cover + win the series.

Week: 2-2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (ATP) Shapovalov +1.5 Sets 1.88 (vs Hurkacz): 1 to win .88.
...Shapo missed time with injury late in 2023. Because of that, his ranking is way lower than it should be.
...He just dominated Tiafoe. Aces 21 to 1. He's healthy and in form.
...Should have every chance to win here. At a minimum, he should get to tie-breaks. If he gets to 5th Set, our bet wins.

Adding a 2nd unit on Shapovalov: +1.5 sets 1.93. 1 to win .93.
...Get some, Shapo.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +6.5 (1.95): 2 to win 1.90.

...Anyone who reads these notes knows that I've been high on the Mavs.
...Not that anyone realizes this, Mavs have been the best team in the league since Gafford started games on 3/7.
...East was so light this season. And count the games that BOST played against injury-ravaged foes.
...The Indiana series was a tell. 4-0 was misleading. Pacers may have run out of gas in games w/o Haliburton.
...Big Boston story will be potential return of Porzingis. He could be rusty. Boston will have to come up with a solution to counter young bucks Gafford & Lively.

My plan is to NOT bet the Series price. I'll be looking more on a game-to-game basis, based on Porzingis status.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 2-0. Squire does win a set. Mavs cover + win the series.

Week: 2-2.

Day: 0-2. Shapo goes down.
Week: 2-4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(ATP) 1* Sinner -8.5 gms (vs Moutet): 1 to win .91.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(ATP) 1* Sinner -8.5 gms (vs Moutet): 1 to win .91.

(ATP) 1* De Minaur +1.5 Sets 1.87: 1 to win .87.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(ATP) 1* Sinner -8.5 gms (vs Moutet): 1 to win .91.

Day: 0-1. Sinner loses by 1/2 game.
Week: 2-5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-1. Sinner loses by 1/2 game.
Week: 2-5

(ATP) 2* Djokovic 2.04 (vs Ruud): 2 to win 2.08.
...I know he looks vulnerable.
...I'll gladly take him at a Dog price in this matchup.
...And if he scratches, it's a No Contest.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 0-1. Sinner loses by 1/2 game.
Week: 2-5

Day: 1-0. De Minaur does k/o Medvedev.
Week: 3-5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(ATP) 2* Djokovic 2.04 (vs Ruud): 2 to win 2.08.
...I know he looks vulnerable.
...I'll gladly take him at a Dog price in this matchup.
...And if he scratches, it's a No Contest.

Adding 3rd unit on Djokovic. 2.18: 1 to win 1.18.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

(ATP) 2* Djokovic 2.04 (vs Ruud): 2 to win 2.08.
...I know he looks vulnerable.
...I'll gladly take him at a Dog price in this matchup.
...And if he scratches, it's a No Contest.

Hard not to take him at that price...looks way too good to be true however.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hard not to take him at that price...looks way too good to be true however.

Ya, I see that he just W/D. If he was going to play, I figured that he'd be OK.

I listened to his Press Conf. I knew the risk. I'm good w/ the bet being cancelled.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +6.5 (1.95): 2 to win 1.90.

...Anyone who reads these notes knows that I've been high on the Mavs.
...Not that anyone realizes this, Mavs have been the best team in the league since Gafford started games on 3/7.
...East was so light this season. And count the games that BOST played against injury-ravaged foes.
...The Indiana series was a tell. 4-0 was misleading. Pacers may have run out of gas in games w/o Haliburton.
...Big Boston story will be potential return of Porzingis. He could be rusty. Boston will have to come up with a solution to counter young bucks Gafford & Lively.

My plan is to NOT bet the Series price. I'll be looking more on a game-to-game basis, based on Porzingis status.

3rd unit on Dallas (gm1) +5 2.24: 1 to win 1.24.
...Porz expected to play.
...I'm going to see how he looks. Even if healthy, I think the DALL centers will be a handful.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (ATP) Sinner 2.38 (vs Alcaraz): 1 to win 1.38.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Took Gauff+6 this morning, Chucky

Hoping she hangs in there and doesn't get routed

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Took Gauff+6 this morning, Chucky

Hoping she hangs in there and doesn't get routed

GL, jake. I've honestly barely watched the women's.

My one comment re: the WTA, I normally think Dog (b4 Fav). In the L8 years, the top of the rankings change so fluidly. After Serena/Venus were at their peak.

GL with Coco. I like it. I think she can hang.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Thanks Chucky, not a good start however

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* (ATP) Sinner 2.38 (vs Alcaraz): 1 to win 1.38.

2nd unit on Sinner 2.44: 1 to win 1.44.
...Earlier in the year I would have said that Alcaraz is the Clay heir-apparent to Nadal.
...I now think that Sinner is just that good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on Sinner 2.44: 1 to win 1.44.
...Earlier in the year I would have said that Alcaraz is the Clay heir-apparent to Nadal.
...I now think that Sinner is just that good.

I'll very much be looking forward to this match. The prior generation was so good. Djokovic getting older + now showing his age.

Next generation ready to take over. It might have looked like Sinner would be the #1 guy, but Alcaraz would be the Clay #1. Now, I think it's very close on Clay.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Dallas Mavericks (gm2) +6.5 2.10: 2 to win 2.20.
...Knee-jerk reaction to Celtics exploding in Game 1. Everyone saw it.
...Porzingis still not playing full minutes. So, I think his impact is a little overrated.
...Gaff/Lively quietly went 4-for-4. Need better guard play. I trust Kidd to make adjustments.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 1-0. De Minaur does k/o Medvedev.
Week: 3-5

Day: 0-3. Mavs get scorched.
Week: 3-8

[JAKEPEAVY21]

good luck on Sinner, should be a cracker of a match

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Great start for Sinner up 2 breaks in the 1st