I shouldn't place this bet so talk me out of this

[arie1985]

I already lost last time I posed here so feel free to make fun of me lol.
I am looking at the Knicks in 3 hours in the NBA.

Look at their record in April from Covers:



Throughout the entire month of April the Knicks didn't go under, only once against the Bulls, and even that was a close call with 208 pts against a line of 211 pts.

These playoffs they are 2-1 O/U against the 76ers, Embiid is giving them hard time scoring from the inside whenever he wants.

Last game 76ers Knicks went 239 pts. 34 pts more than the original line of 205.

So the line is up from 205 to 209 now, which in ideal world wouldn't matter.

I'm seriously asking now, and talk me out of it, what is going to prevent these two from going over again? I know in the season they had the lowest scoring match of all time 79-73:



But playoffs are never, never ever like the season games. They always bring turns and twists.

Still, I'm asking seriously here, what is going to prevent these two from easily going over 209 pts here? Am I missing something?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arie, I've watched all the Knick/Sixer games. Have some knowledge on this.

Key (IMHO) = true health of Embiid.
...I thought he was gonna die in Game 2. Props on a great Gm 3 performance.
...That said, these NBA 0-2 Homers ALWAYS seemingly play well in Gm3. And they get ref help.

No way I could lay these points with PHI. As if the Sixers are now expected to win the series.
...Mentioned in my notes the return of Mitchell Robinson. He's looked better than I expected.

I'll look at this some more. I thought Phi was value as Dog in Games 1+2. But as Fav, I don't think so.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As for the Total? My key would again be Embiid.

I couldn't believe the performance he had in Game 3. Can he repeat it? You're right, the total blew over.

Maxey is a constant. His speed is too much. He should score well.

Knick defense rates as pretty good. 2nd-best PPG in league.

These teams shot the lights out last game. I could see it slowing down today.

[str]

IMO, you are itching to make a large play. It’s Sunday and you want to feel the rush. It already feels good just thinking about it.
Win or lose, this is NOT how anyone places bets that expects or even strives to win long term.

Take a deep breath and consider how great it would feel to be a winning player long term. That can be you. No doubt about it.
But the desire to win must be greater than the desire to risk.

I truly wish you good luck if you choose to outsmart the game. It’s a damn good feeling and one you can achieve but it will start with losing impulse “ thrill “ betting. Can you start that today ?

I hope you do. You will be so happy you did.
Good luck sir.

[IGotKidsToFeed]

Bookmaker touched 211 this AM, back down to 209.5 now.

[Headsterx]

I don't like NBA totals in early games. They tend to be low scoring and it's a playoff. I won't touch it but if you do, I'd advise you follow str's advice above. Either way, good luck!

[arie1985]

So bet the under?!

[mjsuax13]

IMO, you are itching to make a large play. It’s Sunday and you want to feel the rush. It already feels good just thinking about it.
Win or lose, this is NOT how anyone places bets that expects or even strives to win long term.

Take a deep breath and consider how great it would feel to be a winning player long term. That can be you. No doubt about it.
But the desire to win must be greater than the desire to risk.

I truly wish you good luck if you choose to outsmart the game. It’s a damn good feeling and one you can achieve but it will start with losing impulse “ thrill “ betting. Can you start that today ?

I hope you do. You will be so happy you did.
Good luck sir.

Great advice. Wish I would take it! Buried my baseball thread by firing a big bet that lost. Will fight it back but going to take time.

[Optional]

So bet the under?!

Just looking at history, line and odds, that does appear the 'sharp' side to play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FWIW, Embiid now GTD. But who knows on the Injury Rpt?

https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba-lineups.php

Not gonna tell you what to do. Some good advice in here.

[Getch13]

I shouldn't place this bet so talk me out of this

The fact that you are looking to be talk out of this play is reason enough not to play it for me. Never go into something with dough makes for bad karma.

The betting splits for this total 209.5 C/O DraftKings Handle 71% Bets 79% are on the side of the public as of 11:55 est.

The betting splits have not triggered a play for me as of yet, and I don't see it happening for today.

Best of luck with your plays today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I shouldn't place this bet so talk me out of this


The fact that you are looking to be talk out of this play is reason enough not to play it for me. Never go into something with dough makes for bad karma.

The betting splits for this total 209.5 C/O DraftKings Handle 71% Bets 79% are on the side of the public as of 11:55 est.

The betting splits have not triggered a play for me as of yet, and I don't see it happening for today.

Best of luck with your plays today

Good post, Getch. With the state sports-betting, there is so much Square Money out there.

IMHO, Contrarian betting is strong in 2024.

[stevenash]

I'll tail the over lightly, I've had some success with NYK totals.

Embid will get his, the total depends on the two PG's. IMO.

[trobin31]

I took under 211 so somebody gonna hit in here

[stevenash]

Good post, Getch. With the state sports-betting, there is so much Square Money out there.

IMHO, Contrarian betting is strong in 2024.

Would you rather be on the wrong side of the 'right' play or the right side of the 'wrong' play.

Broken clocks are correct twice a day, a blind squirrel will find that acorn from time to time, and squares have been known to have big pay days or two as well.

[biggie12]

take the jays today.

[stevenash]

Looks like the zebras are going to call every touch foul here.

[Hugh Madbrough]

Stats...smaths? Especially in the playoffs.

[Getch13]

Would you rather be on the wrong side of the 'right' play or the right side of the 'wrong' play.

Broken clocks are correct twice a day, a blind squirrel will find that acorn from time to time, and squares have been known to have big pay days or two as well.

Good point Steve, you need to look at as much as you can.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%)

The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders and 37 Overs (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 12 Unders, 9 Overs

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

32-32. Pace = 171.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good thread. Good ideas in here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Would you rather be on the wrong side of the 'right' play or the right side of the 'wrong' play.

Broken clocks are correct twice a day, a blind squirrel will find that acorn from time to time, and squares have been known to have big pay days or two as well.

That's not a good view. Public opinions influences the # and creates line-errors.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

32-32. Pace = 171.

Pace = 192.

IMHO, the way you handicap sports is via Actual/Expected.
...How far does the last data-point deviate from Expectation?
...In this case, I thought Embiid was out of his mind in Gm3. Can he repeat it?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Embiid: 0/3 on 3's so far.

Key bench comparison:
*NY: Robinson has not played yet. Damn, injured again?
*PHI: Only one bench-pt.

[stevenash]

Pace = 192.

IMHO, the way you handicap sports is via Actual/Expected.
...How far does the last data-point deviate from Expectation?
...In this case, I thought Embiid was out of his mind in Gm3. Can he repeat it?

There's no one correct or incorrect way to handicap.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

There's no one correct or incorrect way to handicap.

Disagree. You handicap to get to the Winners' Circle. Everybody has an opinion.

[stevenash]

Disagree. You handicap to get to the Winners' Circle. Everybody has an opinion.

Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tell me these games aren't tuff to pick.

I'm just hoping that Embiid tires out.

[stevenash]

Tell me these games aren't tuff to pick.

I'm just hoping that Embiid tires out.

I'm a spot player, I pick my spots.
NBA playoffs are tough.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Did DiVo/Hart not know there's a game today?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tell me these games aren't tuff to pick.

I'm just hoping that Embiid tires out.

See if I'm wrong about this one. Embiid is laboring.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

See if I'm wrong about this one. Embiid is laboring.

Embiid's minutes are too hi. Telling you, he's going to fatigue.

Nurse knows that Paul Reed is not ready to contribute. More on Embiid.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Still only one pt from the Sixer bench.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The track-side doctor is being called in:
*Will they have to euthanize Embiid after this game?

[stevenash]

Brunson thinks he's Clyde Frazier.
Best move NYK ever made.

Oh, the Sixers are rubbish, a big steaming pile of Hot Fuss is what they are.
Bad bet on my part. it's OK, I was entertained, and I like to be entertained.