Where's the value in this proposition wager?

**stevenash** · 06-30-23, 10:30 AM

You're getting +170 on a +150 bet with Cleveland.
There's your value.

**Darkside Magick** · 06-30-23, 01:00 PM

Ran it Thru the simulation

Minnesota Twins 61%
Cleveland Guardians 37%

Slight value on Guardians here but.. To me It's dead money because Guardians hitting is yuck

Good Luck

**stevenash** · 06-30-23, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Darkside Magick

Ran it Thru the simulation

Minnesota Twins 61%
Cleveland Guardians 37%

Slight value on Guardians here but.. To me It's dead money because Guardians hitting is yuck

Good Luck

Oh, for sure.
After Naylor and J-Ram, Cleveland's lineup is soft powerwise.

Cleveland does have the better overall pitching, but if Bieber goes down, so does Cleveland.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 06-30-23, 11:12 PM

Cleveland, obviously. Only one game back and way better odds.

**unlearn** · 07-01-23, 12:06 AM

If Clase stopped blowing fukkin saves they'd have a 4 game lead

**JohnGalt2341** · 07-01-23, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

TO WIN THE AL CENTRAL

Minnesota -175
Cleveland +170

Probability of Minnesota wining the division as of 6/30 (54%)
Probability of Cleveland wining the division as of 6/30 (40%)


				Current		Remaining		Average
	Tm	Lg	D	W	L	W	L	W	L	Post	Div

1	Minnesota	AL	C	40	42	42.3	37.7	82.3	79.7	54.30%	53.70%
2	Cleveland	AL	C	39	41	41.2	40.8	80.2	81.8	39.60%	39.20%

Just curious, how did you know the chances of Cleveland winning the division are 40%?

**stevenash** · 07-01-23, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

Just curious, how did you know the chances of Cleveland winning the division are 40%?

The chart I posted are baseball-reference numbers.
BR is the most accurate.