The 148th running of the Preakness Stakes takes place Saturday, May 20th at Pimlico Race Course. Get the latest odds, picks, and insight from SBR's betting analysts.
Preakness Stakes Odds
Preakness Stakes Picks and Predictions
By: SBR-Team
Seven-out: Blazing Sevens (Post 7/6-1)
"Where do we start explaining why Blazing Sevens is snake-eyes on your tickets? For starters, he’s a closer in a race that isn’t kind to that genus. Yes, you want a closer on your tickets, but you don’t want them topping your tickets. And you certainly don’t want this one, because there are better late runners in this field, starting with 8-5 morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
Second, Blazing Sevens looks like he peaked at 2 when he bookended wins in his debut and the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes around a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, Blazing Sevens has a woeful eighth by 26 lengths in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and a worse-than-it-looks third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, where he finished a distant six lengths behind Tapit Trice and Verifying. Each time, he’s lost ground in the stretch, indicating an inability to handle two turns or 9 1/2 furlongs.
Third, Blazing Sevens is going to take plenty of money, thanks to his connections: trainer Chad Brown and Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Brown captured the Preakness last year with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing—both times after bypassing the Kentucky Derby. Bettors haven’t forgotten this, so combined with the Brown-Ortiz duo, you can expect Blazing Sevens’ odds to drop lower than his already underlay 6-1. There’s no lucky seven forthcoming here."
Key this long shot: Perform (Post 6/15-1)
"To give you an idea of how confident the owners of this Good Magic progeny are about his chances, they paid a $150,000 supplemental fee to get Perform into the Pimlico starting gate for Saturday. Last year, the owners of Creative Minister did the same thing—and watched their colt finish third to Early Voting and eventual Champion, three-year-old Epicenter.
But wait, didn’t it take Perform six tries to break his maiden? Hasn’t he run only one stakes race, and it wasn’t a graded stakes? Yes, yes, and yes.
But a fundamental rule of this game is horses—like humans—develop at different times. Once Perform broke his maiden in a one-mile, 40-yard race at Tampa Bay Downs by nearly three lengths, something clicked. He parlayed that into a roller-coaster head victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. That race, which got Perform into the Preakness, featured a horrible start, traffic on the backstretch, a slalom trip around horses down the stretch, and a late surge at the wire.
In those two races—both at two turns—Perform has boosted his Equibase Speed Figure by a combined 20 points. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is a wizard with late-bloomer colts. And Perform’s pedigree features plenty of speed, class, and stamina.
To sum up, you’re getting an in-form colt at double-digit odds who may not win but needs to be on your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets somewhere."
Our Preakness Stakes favorite: First Mission (Post 8/5-2)
"No, that’s not a typo. We didn’t mean to type “Mage” here. Not because we don’t like the Kentucky Derby winner, who could easily win this race and not raise an eyebrow doing so. But we don’t like the lack of value, don’t like closers at the Preakness, aren’t thrilled about the expected modest pace, and don’t want to shove our way onto a crowded bandwagon.
Instead, we’re going all-in with another late-developing colt who has the pressing/stalking style that plays perfectly in the Preakness. First Mission comes in off a half-length score in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. One of his victims in that race was third-place Disarm, who finished fourth in the Derby. That last stop on the Derby trail came with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. But it was First Mission’s only stop, however, and the 20 points weren’t enough to get him into the Derby field.
Before that, the son of 2007 Derby champion Street Sense—who finished second to Curlin in that year’s Preakness—dismantled a maiden field by 6 3/4 lengths at Fair Grounds. Throw in a second to stablemate Bishops Bay in his February debut and you have a colt who hasn’t finished outside the exacta in three races.
What you’ll likely see from this Brad Cox horse is a charge from his outside post, where jockey Luis Saez will perch him behind expected pace-setters National Treasure and Coffeewithchris. At the turn, expect Saez to open the jets. When that happens, expect this to be Mission Accomplished."
Preakness Stakes Promos
FanDuel: Place a Win Bet on a single horse for the Preakness Stakes. If it doesn't win, you'll get up to $20 back!
Who are you backing for the Preakness Stakes? Comment below!
Preakness Stakes Odds
| Horse | Trainer | Post Position | Odds |
| Mage | Gustavo Delgado | 3 | 8-5 |
| First Mission | Brad Cox | 8 | 5-2 |
| National Treasure | Bob Baffert | 1 | 4-1 |
| Blazing Sevens | Chad Brown | 7 | 6-1 |
| Red Route One | Steve Asmussen | 5 | 10-1 |
| Perform | Claude R. McGaughey III | 6 | 15-1 |
| Coffeewithchris | John E. Salzman Jr. | 4 | 20-1 |
| Chase the Chaos | Ed Moger Jr. | 2 | 50-1 |
By: SBR-Team
Seven-out: Blazing Sevens (Post 7/6-1)
"Where do we start explaining why Blazing Sevens is snake-eyes on your tickets? For starters, he’s a closer in a race that isn’t kind to that genus. Yes, you want a closer on your tickets, but you don’t want them topping your tickets. And you certainly don’t want this one, because there are better late runners in this field, starting with 8-5 morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
Second, Blazing Sevens looks like he peaked at 2 when he bookended wins in his debut and the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes around a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, Blazing Sevens has a woeful eighth by 26 lengths in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and a worse-than-it-looks third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, where he finished a distant six lengths behind Tapit Trice and Verifying. Each time, he’s lost ground in the stretch, indicating an inability to handle two turns or 9 1/2 furlongs.
Third, Blazing Sevens is going to take plenty of money, thanks to his connections: trainer Chad Brown and Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Brown captured the Preakness last year with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing—both times after bypassing the Kentucky Derby. Bettors haven’t forgotten this, so combined with the Brown-Ortiz duo, you can expect Blazing Sevens’ odds to drop lower than his already underlay 6-1. There’s no lucky seven forthcoming here."
Key this long shot: Perform (Post 6/15-1)
"To give you an idea of how confident the owners of this Good Magic progeny are about his chances, they paid a $150,000 supplemental fee to get Perform into the Pimlico starting gate for Saturday. Last year, the owners of Creative Minister did the same thing—and watched their colt finish third to Early Voting and eventual Champion, three-year-old Epicenter.
But wait, didn’t it take Perform six tries to break his maiden? Hasn’t he run only one stakes race, and it wasn’t a graded stakes? Yes, yes, and yes.
But a fundamental rule of this game is horses—like humans—develop at different times. Once Perform broke his maiden in a one-mile, 40-yard race at Tampa Bay Downs by nearly three lengths, something clicked. He parlayed that into a roller-coaster head victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. That race, which got Perform into the Preakness, featured a horrible start, traffic on the backstretch, a slalom trip around horses down the stretch, and a late surge at the wire.
In those two races—both at two turns—Perform has boosted his Equibase Speed Figure by a combined 20 points. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is a wizard with late-bloomer colts. And Perform’s pedigree features plenty of speed, class, and stamina.
To sum up, you’re getting an in-form colt at double-digit odds who may not win but needs to be on your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets somewhere."
Our Preakness Stakes favorite: First Mission (Post 8/5-2)
"No, that’s not a typo. We didn’t mean to type “Mage” here. Not because we don’t like the Kentucky Derby winner, who could easily win this race and not raise an eyebrow doing so. But we don’t like the lack of value, don’t like closers at the Preakness, aren’t thrilled about the expected modest pace, and don’t want to shove our way onto a crowded bandwagon.
Instead, we’re going all-in with another late-developing colt who has the pressing/stalking style that plays perfectly in the Preakness. First Mission comes in off a half-length score in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. One of his victims in that race was third-place Disarm, who finished fourth in the Derby. That last stop on the Derby trail came with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. But it was First Mission’s only stop, however, and the 20 points weren’t enough to get him into the Derby field.
Before that, the son of 2007 Derby champion Street Sense—who finished second to Curlin in that year’s Preakness—dismantled a maiden field by 6 3/4 lengths at Fair Grounds. Throw in a second to stablemate Bishops Bay in his February debut and you have a colt who hasn’t finished outside the exacta in three races.
What you’ll likely see from this Brad Cox horse is a charge from his outside post, where jockey Luis Saez will perch him behind expected pace-setters National Treasure and Coffeewithchris. At the turn, expect Saez to open the jets. When that happens, expect this to be Mission Accomplished."
Preakness Stakes Promos
FanDuel: Place a Win Bet on a single horse for the Preakness Stakes. If it doesn't win, you'll get up to $20 back!
Who are you backing for the Preakness Stakes? Comment below!
