After a 1-1 split last night, SBR's Jon Metler is back with his best value NBA player prop bets for Tuesday.
Player prop: Devin Booker Under 30.5 points vs. Clippers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"With the series sitting at 3-1 for the Suns, Kawhi Leonard sitting out, and Los Angeles serving as a 12.5-point underdog in Phoenix on Tuesday, I believe this could be 1-2-3 Cancun for the Clippers. Typically, a lower point total is expected for a superstar player in a game that has the potential to be a blowout, but not for Booker. This is his highest total of the series.
Booker has been averaging 34.8 points per game in the series, which has driven his total up from 28.5 points to 30.5 points. I think the total of 28.5 points is much more accurate, as Booker is projected to score 28.6 points against the Clippers on Tuesday. This projection allows us to price the Under 30.5 points at -155.
I contemplated going Under 29.5 points at +108 via FanDuel, but it had the same expected value as playing the Under 30.5 points based on our projection. DraftKings isn't the only sportsbook trading this prop at -110; you can also do your shopping at BetRivers or BetMGM."
Player prop: Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 points vs. Nuggets (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Anthony Edwards has been outstanding in this series against the Denver Nuggets, averaging 32.3 points per game and scoring more than 34 points in each of the last three games. As someone who doesn't believe in trends, I naturally love the Under in this spot thanks to the rogue price we're getting at DraftKings.
Edwards is projected to score 27.1 points on Tuesday against the Nuggets, which is much higher than his season average of 24.6 points per game but not high enough when your total is trading at 27.5 and 28.5 points. Based on this projection, we can price Edwards at -120 to go Under the total of 27.5 points, yet we're able to buy it via DraftKings at +110.
Edwards is carrying a total of 28.5 points at our best sportsbooks, but the Under 27.5 (+110) via DraftKings has a much higher expected value based on how the juice is at the other NBA betting sites. Under 28.5 points at -125 via BetMGM would only yield an expected value of 6.5%, while our expected value is 15% by attacking the Under 27.5 points (+110) via DraftKings."
NBA best bets made 04/25/2023 at 8:30 AM ET.
Best NBA sportsbook promos for Tuesday:
DraftKings - max bet $25:
FanDuel - max bet $50:
Caesars - max bet $50, min odds -200:
What's your favorite prop bet tonight?
Player prop: Devin Booker Under 30.5 points vs. Clippers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"With the series sitting at 3-1 for the Suns, Kawhi Leonard sitting out, and Los Angeles serving as a 12.5-point underdog in Phoenix on Tuesday, I believe this could be 1-2-3 Cancun for the Clippers. Typically, a lower point total is expected for a superstar player in a game that has the potential to be a blowout, but not for Booker. This is his highest total of the series.
Booker has been averaging 34.8 points per game in the series, which has driven his total up from 28.5 points to 30.5 points. I think the total of 28.5 points is much more accurate, as Booker is projected to score 28.6 points against the Clippers on Tuesday. This projection allows us to price the Under 30.5 points at -155.
I contemplated going Under 29.5 points at +108 via FanDuel, but it had the same expected value as playing the Under 30.5 points based on our projection. DraftKings isn't the only sportsbook trading this prop at -110; you can also do your shopping at BetRivers or BetMGM."
Player prop: Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 points vs. Nuggets (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Anthony Edwards has been outstanding in this series against the Denver Nuggets, averaging 32.3 points per game and scoring more than 34 points in each of the last three games. As someone who doesn't believe in trends, I naturally love the Under in this spot thanks to the rogue price we're getting at DraftKings.
Edwards is projected to score 27.1 points on Tuesday against the Nuggets, which is much higher than his season average of 24.6 points per game but not high enough when your total is trading at 27.5 and 28.5 points. Based on this projection, we can price Edwards at -120 to go Under the total of 27.5 points, yet we're able to buy it via DraftKings at +110.
Edwards is carrying a total of 28.5 points at our best sportsbooks, but the Under 27.5 (+110) via DraftKings has a much higher expected value based on how the juice is at the other NBA betting sites. Under 28.5 points at -125 via BetMGM would only yield an expected value of 6.5%, while our expected value is 15% by attacking the Under 27.5 points (+110) via DraftKings."
NBA best bets made 04/25/2023 at 8:30 AM ET.
Best NBA sportsbook promos for Tuesday:
DraftKings - max bet $25:
FanDuel - max bet $50:
Caesars - max bet $50, min odds -200:
What's your favorite prop bet tonight?