What's you're top upset pick?

**Enkhbat** · 03-12-23, 05:52 PM

Montana State, Louisiana, Santa Barbara and Drake are good candidates.

**marcoloco** · 03-12-23, 06:14 PM

Santa Barbara

**Jayvegas420** · 03-12-23, 06:21 PM

WVU
USC
Auburn
Urah St.

**lakerboy** · 03-12-23, 06:37 PM

VCU

**Mackballs** · 03-12-23, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

WVU
USC
Auburn
Urah St.

So brave lol

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 03-12-23, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

Kent State

Right with you.

**pavyracer** · 03-12-23, 08:53 PM

your...not you're

**d2bets** · 03-12-23, 09:35 PM

5 12+ seeds that will win

13 Kent State
12 VCU
14 UCSB
13 Furman
12 Drake

**funnyb25** · 03-12-23, 09:46 PM

Charleston will beat SDSU and not sure it will even be close...

**gauchojake** · 03-12-23, 09:48 PM

Honestly I am a little concerned that so many are picking the Gauchos but win or lose it will be a fun week.

**flyingillini** · 03-12-23, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

Honestly I am a little concerned that so many are picking the Gauchos but win or lose it will be a fun week.

I think Baylor pounds the Gauchos into an oblivion

**actiondan** · 03-12-23, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

VCU

vcu is a 2 unit bet

**actiondan** · 03-12-23, 11:45 PM

looking at az st as well

**Nate rasta** · 03-13-23, 12:10 AM

Vermont

**blackbart** · 03-13-23, 11:46 AM

12 vcu

**GzaTheGenius** · 03-13-23, 11:50 AM

Got Kent state and firman with points, wouldn’t be surprised if they win

Could see possible FAU upsetting Purdue in round 2

Also have Kent State getting to the sweet 16

And creighton beating Baylor in the 2nd round

**pimike** · 03-13-23, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Charleston will beat SDSU and not sure it will even be close...

No way

**Headsterx** · 03-13-23, 12:08 PM

Top 10 most likely first-round upsets

1. No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 13 Furman Paladins

Upset chance: 39.3%

2. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs

If Mississippi State beats Pittsburgh in the First Four

Upset Chance: 37.8%

3. No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 31.4%

4. No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 13 Kent State Golden Flashes

Upset Chance: 30.9%

5. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 College of Charleston Cougars

Upset Chance: 28.6%

6. No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Upset Chance: 27.8%

7. No. 5 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 VCU Rams

Upset Chance: 25.4%

8. No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona St. Sun Devils

Upset Chance: 23.6%

9. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers

If Pittsburgh beats Mississippi State in the First Four

Upset Chance: 22.1%

10. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 11 Providence Friars

Upset Chance: 21.3%

**Headsterx** · 03-13-23, 12:09 PM

Last year model performance:

2022
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines (59%) vs. No. 6 Colorado State Rams - Mich win by 12
No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (42%) vs. No. 6 LSU Tigers - ISU win by 5
No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies (39%) vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns - UT win by 8
No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (32%) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels - SMC wins by 29
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts (29%) vs. No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks - ARK wins by 4
No. 13 Chattanooga Mocs (23%) vs. No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini - ILL wins by 1
No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (22%) vs. No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide - ND wins by 14
No. 14 Colgate Red Raiders (21%) vs. No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers - WISC wins by 7
No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits (20%) vs. No. 4 Providence Friars - PROV wins by 9
No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies (12.5%) vs. No. 5 Connecticut Huskies - NMSU wins by 7

The lower seed went 4-6 in these games, and it seems like the model was pretty good at identifying 12-13 seeds with potential.

**KVB** · 03-13-23, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

...Drake...

Originally posted by d2bets

...Drake...

I hope the cat is not "out of the bag" on this one.

I see a lot of potential with Drake too.

**stevenash** · 03-13-23, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by Enkhbat

Drake

**agharah1** · 03-13-23, 12:41 PM

Fade the "slow down, grind it out" teams like Virginia, St. Mary's, San Diego State. Fade teams coached by Rick Barnes. Fade NC State.

Memphis over Purdue. Kent State over Indiana. Take Xavier to cover they love running up the score in the first round under Sean Miller.

Texas and Duke have favorable matchups. Colgate and Oral Roberts will let them run.

**KVB** · 03-13-23, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

Fade the "slow down, grind it out" teams like Virginia, St. Mary's, San Diego State. Fade teams coached by Rick Barnes. Fade NC State.

Memphis over Purdue. Kent State over Indiana. Take Xavier to cover they love running up the score in the first round under Sean Miller.

Texas and Duke have favorable matchups. Colgate and Oral Roberts will let them run.

Not bad.

Agree, Big 10 there is suspect for sure.

**Mike Huntertz** · 03-13-23, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

your...not you're

The grammer police?
That stuff drives my wife perfectly crazy. haha

**Snowball** · 03-13-23, 12:53 PM

Kent State is only a 4 point dog.

How about Oral Roberts over Duke... or Colgate over Texas... Iona over Uconn...

**KVB** · 03-13-23, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

...Duke have favorable matchups. Colgate and Oral Roberts will let them run.

I think Oral Roberts should not be underestimated, especially on the numbers. A likely inflated market here with good tourney squat at Oral.

When those two types of lines cross, it's usually a gift to the value bettor.

**Snowball** · 03-13-23, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Charleston will beat SDSU and not sure it will even be close...

I like that one too

**KVB** · 03-13-23, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Kent State is only a 4 point dog.

How about Oral Roberts over Duke... or Colgate over Texas... Iona over Uconn...

Yeah, was typing about Oral as you were posting. Could be a place to find a good bet all the way up to the close.

**stevenash** · 03-13-23, 01:02 PM

Yale to beat Vandy outright.
Princeton loses to Arizona but keeps it within the 14.5

Don't sleep on the top two Ivy dogs.
Those smart kids know basketball too.

Do I dare say it?
Iona covers the 9.5 vs. UConn

**Headsterx** · 03-13-23, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Kent State is only a 4 point dog.

How about Oral Roberts over Duke... or Colgate over Texas... Iona over Uconn...

Duke is one of the hottest teams now, I wouldn't have them being upset in R1. Don't know how far they will go but they seem like a dangerous team going into the Big Dance.

**Kami40** · 03-13-23, 04:52 PM

COLGATE

**Otters27** · 03-13-23, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Kami40

COLGATE

Haven't seen Colgate this year. Was it last year or the year before they were really good?

**lakerboy** · 03-13-23, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I think Oral Roberts should not be underestimated, especially on the numbers. A likely inflated market here with good tourney squat at Oral.

When those two types of lines cross, it's usually a gift to the value bettor.

Oral Roberts is a square dog. Duke will run them out of the building.

**sweethook** · 03-13-23, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Charleston will beat SDSU and not sure it will even be close...

hell yea ML