Wind and cold everywhere although wind the main thing that affects nfl totals
Many NFL Totals Dropped By 20%
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jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#1Many NFL Totals Dropped By 20%Tags: None -
cincinnatikid513SBR Aristocracy
- 11-23-17
- 45360
#26 games totals in 30 sComment -
DrunkHorseplayerSBR Hall of Famer
- 05-15-10
- 7719
#3Taking a hard look at the overs, hopefully more will drop.Comment -
pavyracerSBR Aristocracy
- 04-12-07
- 82790
#4Cold is not an issue. Wind is an issue if is a cross wind only.Comment -
hawkwindSBR MVP
- 04-25-11
- 4059
#5Actually 18.5 %Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#6Weather is nuts now. Snow and freezing across the Nation! Got global warming, lol..
Gonna love to see how all these green new deal electric cars hold up in these freezing shit storms?Comment -
pavyracerSBR Aristocracy
- 04-12-07
- 82790
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RenegadesSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-12-11
- 5290
#8Scoring is way down in the nfl this yr anyways. Games averaging 42-43 pts. Lowest in 10 yrsComment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#9Take under every game
This weekComment -
big joe 1212SBR Posting Legend
- 06-01-08
- 19380
#10When players run out of bounds they only stop the clock for 1-2 seconds these days. Does this have something to do with scoring being down?Comment -
Brock LandersSBR Aristocracy
- 06-30-08
- 45359
#11always been that way, only time clock stops after going out of bounds is under 2 mins in 1st half and under 5 mins in 4th quarterComment -
thetrinitySBR Posting Legend
- 01-25-11
- 22430
#12ncaa basketball being cancelled left and rightComment -
pavyracerSBR Aristocracy
- 04-12-07
- 82790
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EnkhbatSBR MVP
- 04-18-11
- 3145
#17Here in Chicago the weather is horrible, expect the Bills/Bears game to go under but the line is only 40.5Comment -
Slurry PumperSBR MVP
- 06-18-18
- 2811
#18Like the great lake unders this week. Buf / Chi und 40.5, and N.O / Cle und 32. Yeh, 32 sounds like an easy over, but there is a reason why it sucks to be in Cleveland.Comment -
KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#19I was planning on getting into some longer term effects on lines and scores of cold, wind, and the combination of both but first layer down some season facts.
Then I saw this thread. Here’s some info from FlyMe…
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KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#20There were multiple posts in the series…
Despite the UNDERS killing it record wise, in 7 of the 15 weeks the average game score has been higher than the average closing Total line...
Season to date the average closing Total is 44.6 while the average final score has been 44, but notice the median final score is 1.5 points lower than the median closer...
2022 Season Hm Score Rd Score Total Lines Scores Hm Spread All games Avg 22.9 21.2 44.6 44.0 -1.5 Med 23.0 20.5 44.5 43.0 -2.5 Comment -
KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#21The next post…
Notice week 16, this upcoming week, in the bar chart above. We are facing the lowest Totals this season.
There is some wind out there, but there is also some cold this week.
Here are some NFL weekly averages, including this upcoming week. The red and blue lines are just the tops of the bar graph above, the green line is wind.
The yellow line is temperature and is represented by the right side axis...
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KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#22And the next…
Here's the breakdown of that Table above showing the 2022 Season so far. I already posted the Full Season and UNDER record.
Now we'll add all the Weather games (non roofed dome) and further break those down into Wind at 12+ mph, 15+mph, and games with an average temp of 40 degrees or less, the cold games, and the average home spreads.
Notice that, this season, when the wind is 15+ mph the Home Scores separate, as well as the home point spreads...
UND Record 2022 Season Hm Score Rd Score Total Lines Scores Hm Spread 123-100-1 All games Avg 22.9 21.2 44.6 44.121 -1.5 Med 23.0 20.5 44.5 43.0 -2.5 116-92-1 All Weather Avg 23.2 20.9 44.5 44.105 -1.5 Med 23.0 20.0 44.5 42.0 -2.5 23-13 Wind 12+ mph Avg. 21.8 18.9 43.6 40.7 -2.3 Med 21.0 21.0 42.8 40.5 -3.0 6-5 Wind 15+ Avg 24.2 17.1 44.4 41.3 -3.8 Med 23.0 17.0 44.5 43.0 -3.5 14-11 40 Deg or Less Avg 21.0 21.0 43.8 42.0 -2.4 Med 20.0 23.0 43.5 44.0 -3.0 Comment -
KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#23And the final post about this week’s games…
Here are this week's games, Total lines, expected temps and expected winds, including tonight's game with NY and Jax, where there were high winds and the game ended UNDER.
High winds and low temps give us some low totals, especially in Cleveland, that looks to lead in both extremes this week...
We did not get into what happens when we combine wind and cold and what happens when we regress these things, to seean effect on the line and results, with more historical data than just this season. That is for another time.Hm Team Rd Team Odds Temp Wind New York Jets Jacksonville Jaguars 36.5 48 17 San Francisco 49ers Washington Commanders 37.5 61 4 New England Patriots Cincinnati Bengals 41.5 20 13 Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks 49.5 13 13 Chicago Bears Buffalo Bills 39.5 9 22 Carolina Panthers Detroit Lions 43.5 27 11 Tennessee Titans Houston Texans 35.5 19 11 Cleveland Browns New Orleans Saints 32.5 9 26 Pittsburgh Steelers Las Vegas Raiders 38.5 12 15 Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles 46.5 34 2 Baltimore Ravens Atlanta Falcons 35.5 19 15 Arizona Cardinals Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40.5 59 2 Miami Dolphins Green Bay Packers 50.5 56 9 Indianapolis Colts Los Angeles Chargers 45.5 15 5
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KVBSBR Aristocracy
- 05-29-14
- 74817
#24Some final thoughts before we go further…
That's a tough one. I'd like to say "look at these low lines, must be an overreaction" and we could see some OVERs this week in those games but this might not be the best week to try to hit OVERs.
We're talking cold and wind, to an extreme, in those games. It's the NFL, so the Cleveland/NewOrleans game just might go OVER...LMAO.
What about the home teams in those windy games though?
Those home scores are a TD better than road scores when the wind is high, at least this season.
Then again, high winds tonight and the road team won.
Then again, again, it was an NFL Thursday night game. Classic NFL.
I think we need to look at a this in a little more detail, have any of these lines moved too far? Is there a home team with moneyline value?
We're going to have dive in, and dig deeper...
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