Packers +6.5 Seem Like A Good Play

[stake1]

love has a laser arm, poised in the pocket. lets go!

[mikmik]

Glad I waited for live line at 7.5

[JIBBBY]

Never hurts to buy a point.

11/27/2211:32 PM

Win - Single Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-140) Bought 1 points Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

[Art Vandelay]

was last time seeing rodgers play for the packers tonite. love is starting the rest of the way

Let's hope! Convenient injury to Arod - Have to see what they have w/ Love - 5th-year option coming up!

[TheLock]

I got crushed by the half point. I loved Packers .+6.5
Very fishy line

[jjgold]

Never got a damn break all week
Bad call JJ

[pologq]

JJ breaks will come. at 6.5 i like to buy to 7.

[JIBBBY]

When I see lines at 3 or 7 points spreads in prime time games most often I like to buy a half point. It's a small price to pay to win your bet. I find the line makers usually nail the lines in those late prime time late games most of the time.

You always should want to sit on a 3.5 or 7.5 line IMO in football games instead of 2.5 or 6.5 line at -110.

[mjsuax13]

JJ mushed it again…

[stevenash]

JJ mushed it again…

Did you expect anything different from Thom O. Rino esquire head cheerleader?
They're cut from the same cloth don't 'ya know?

[TheMoneyShot]

If a book is going to to allow you to buy it from +6.5 to +7 for -120.... it's probably the only time it has value.

[stevenash]

Long term there is no value, NONE, in buying the hook.
Do the math.

[TheMoneyShot]

Long term there is no value, NONE, in buying the hook.
Do the math.

There's a lot of different "middling" situations you can set up when a football line is on 7. There's different formulas you can use. IMO it's the only line in which you can do this. Flow of the game etc. But if you're just looking for a straight play... and be done with it. I understand your point of view.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Long term there is no value, NONE, in buying the hook.
Do the math.

[stevenash]

There's a lot of different "middling" situations you can set up when a football line is on 7. There's different formulas you can use. IMO it's the only line in which you can do this. Flow of the game etc. But if you're just looking for a straight play... and be done with it. I understand your point of view.

Re: Middling:
I know there are, I know what I am about to say is going to come across like I am a know it all, I AM NOT A KNOW IT ALL, but I do know what I know, I proved it last year with the Super Bowl game, and I posted this before the game.

I posted the potential for a four point middle (the SB line was 4.5 closed at 4 and 49.5 total) is great, and this is what I am going to do.
I'm betting the Bengals to cover the 4.5, however I feel the Rams win outright.
Anytime I can get a 4.5 point middle I'm on it like Oprah on a honey glazed ham.
And I made major coin last year on that middle on every angle.

Final 23-20 Rams.
Your quintessential example of a middle, the perfect example.

RE: Buying the hook off of seven:
Since 2015 when the NFL moved the XP attempt back 13 yards nine percent of all game s played (seven year sample size) nine percent of all the games played ended with a seven point differential, I can post the SQL spread sheets and other data proving that too.
That's less than one in every ten games played.
If the book charges 20 percent to buy the hook from seven points to 7.5 points, please tell me long term where the value is?
You can't, because the math proves that out.
Now, if you want to tell me about how many times buying the hook has saved a bettor, fine, but I bet he won't tell me how many times he wasted money 20 percent buying the hook overall.

The books offer buying 1/2 points, parlays, teasers, pleasers, and every other exotic you can name for one reason and one reason only.
Spoiler alert: it's not for the bettors advantage, that's why they offer exotic bets.

Not for nothing since the XP attempt has been moved back 13 yards in 2015
9% of all games ended with a seven point differential.
7% ended with a six point differential.

I'm human, I do make mistakes.
But I'm a geek, I'm in the numbers profession.
I do know this, liars figure, but figures don't lie.

[Mr KLC]

[Booya711]

If you think you have to buy points….bet the other side or don’t bet

[hawkwind]

a team of the past wisc a liberal MF state FJB