If you have a 12.5% chance of winning what should be your odds in the form of 10/1 format
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Or in moneyline format.you know what I meanComment -
Should be:
7/1
7 to 1
+700
8.00 (on Euro decimal line)
Those #s above would be FAIR ODDS. IE, no juice built in.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Thank youComment -
Basically 100% divided by 12.5% equals 8.
You have broken up 100% into 8 12.5% parts.
You can now see that you could lose 7 of them and in order to break even on the 8th try you would need +700 or 7/1 odds.
If you're getting better than +700 odds, you have an edge.
But if you are estimating something higher than 12.5%, then you can estimate that edge.
The easiest way to figure the estimated edge for this purpose will probably to be to use the decimal line, Chucky has it there at 8.
Similar to EV, we take our estimated chance to win and multiply it by the odds it pays, but this time we'll use decimal odds and subtract 1.
For example, if you estimate a 12.5% chance to win, and are getting what Chucky and I have determined to be +700 or a decimal line of 8.0 it looks like this...
.125 * 8 = 1
Then subtract 1 and you get 0% edge. Makes sense, you estimate 12.5%, they are paying for the 12.5%.
Say you estimated the chance of winning to be 14.5%, then you estimate the fair line to +589.6, a decimal line of 6.896, but they are offering +700, or a decimal of 8.0.
That would look like this...
.145 * 8 = 1.16
Subtract 1 and you find yourself with a 16% edge on that bet.
(Your estimated chance of winning X odds paid in decimal) - 1 = Your Estimated Edge.
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