MLB: COL vs. PIT...BM and BOL Dealing Different Vig Free Line Than Pinny

KVB · 05-23-22, 05:17 PM

Already some moves.

Guess who, and which direction?

				Vig Free
Pinny	Prices	Imp. Prob	Hold	Imp Prob	Vig Free line
COL	126	0.4425	0.0184	0.4343	130.24
PIT	-136	0.5763		0.5657	-130.24
BM
COL	120	0.4545	0.0247	0.4433	125.58
PIT	-133	0.5708		0.5567	-125.58
BOL
COL	123	0.4484	0.0189	0.4400	127.29
PIT	-133	0.5708		0.5600	-127.29

Can you pick up what I'm putting down here?

Anyone buying Pitt at their book? Anyone buying Colorado?

jjgold · 05-23-22, 05:21 PM

No it’s complicated

I mainly deal with a broker so I’m always getting the best number

I don’t have to shop Mollybet is your friend

KVB · 05-23-22, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

No it’s complicated

I mainly deal with a broker so I’m always getting the best number

I don’t have to shop Mollybet is your friend

My gawd, how do you miss the point?

What are your Mollybet numbers? Do you have a bet here?

Do you even know what side to bet here?

Market equalizing at game time...

				Vig Free
Pinny	Prices	Imp. Prob	Hold	Imp Prob	Vig Free line
COL	124	0.4464	0.0187	0.4381	128.27
PIT	-134	0.5726		0.5619	-128.27
BM
COL	121	0.4525	0.0245	0.4414	126.56
PIT	-134	0.5726		0.5586	-126.56
BOL
COL	122	0.4505	0.0190	0.4419	126.31
PIT	-132	0.5690		0.5581	-126.31

jjgold · 05-23-22, 05:35 PM

Just the basic page

KiDBaZkiT · 05-23-22, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

No it’s complicated

I mainly deal with a broker so I’m always getting the best number

I don’t have to shop Mollybet is your friend

KVB channeling his inner Lewis Skolnick

jjgold · 05-23-22, 05:46 PM

I love teasing KVB with bits and pieces

He is a wizard though

KVB · 05-23-22, 05:47 PM

Notice just getting through the first half of the inning and COL line is upwards of+150 even 160.

Market could be shaking out some pre game Pitt bettors. There's a couple of percent in there.

Because of that the hold LIVE, at both BM and BOL is high as the bottom of the inning brings a supressed COL price while Pitt just gets juiced to the core.

Was Pit the sharp play?????

stevex · 05-23-22, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Notice just getting through the first half of the inning and COL line is upwards of+150 even 160.

Market could be shaking out some pre game Pitt bettors. There's a couple of percent in there.

Because of that the hold LIVE, at both BM and BOL is high as the bottom of the inning brings a supressed COL price while Pitt just gets juiced to the core.

Was Pit the sharp play?????

Any time a team as bad as the Pirates is a favorite, they’re the sharp play.

Chi_archie · 05-23-22, 05:58 PM

I slammed the pie rats

former bucco shit stain pitcher on the mound that they know well

jjgold · 05-23-22, 06:18 PM

A lot of people on Pittsburgh

KVB · 05-23-22, 06:59 PM

Pit the most overperfoming team in the league, arguably. SD too.

Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins underperfoming

Here are pythagorean win and run expectations for the league as of yesterday. Negative is overperforming.

For example, Pirates have won 16 games, but the expectation is 11 games, the difference is -4.68 games. Their current win % is 40%, but the expected would be 28.3%.

Note that this formula is less effective at the extremes, it itself regresses to the mean, but still a decent comparison to watch through the season.

Exp Wins -Actual Wins		Exp-Actual
		Win %
-4.68	Pittsburgh Pirates	-11.7%	Pittsburgh Pirates
-3.33	San Diego Padres	-8.2%	San Diego Padres
-3.09	Chicago White Sox	-7.5%	Chicago White Sox
-2.73	Toronto Blue Jays	-6.7%	Toronto Blue Jays
-2.21	Tampa Bay Rays	-5.3%	Tampa Bay Rays
-2.13	Milwaukee Brewers	-5.2%	Milwaukee Brewers
-1.97	Arizona Diamondbacks	-4.5%	Arizona Diamondbacks
-1.78	New York Mets	-4.1%	New York Mets
-1.50	Colorado Rockies	-3.8%	Colorado Rockies
-0.97	New York Yankees	-2.3%	New York Yankees
-0.95	Minnesota Twins	-2.3%	Minnesota Twins
-0.33	Houston Astros	-0.8%	Houston Astros
-0.29	Detroit Tigers	-0.7%	Detroit Tigers
-0.15	Baltimore Orioles	-0.4%	Baltimore Orioles
0.20	Kansas City Royals	0.5%	Kansas City Royals
0.30	Atlanta Braves	0.8%	Atlanta Braves
0.35	San Francisco Giants	0.9%	San Francisco Giants
0.61	Oakland Athletics	1.4%	Oakland Athletics
0.94	Los Angeles Angels	2.2%	Los Angeles Angels
1.01	Texas Rangers	2.5%	Texas Rangers
1.19	Seattle Mariners	2.8%	Seattle Mariners
1.61	Boston Red Sox	4.0%	Boston Red Sox
1.86	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.6%	Los Angeles Dodgers
1.88	Cincinnati Reds	4.7%	Cincinnati Reds
2.00	Cleveland Guardians	4.9%	Washington Nationals
2.06	Washington Nationals	5.4%	St. Louis Cardinals
2.20	St. Louis Cardinals	5.5%	Cleveland Guardians
2.66	Philadelphia Phillies	6.5%	Philadelphia Phillies
3.78	Chicago Cubs	9.5%	Chicago Cubs
3.95	Miami Marlins	9.9%	Miami Marlins

jjgold · 05-23-22, 08:26 PM

Fade Miami next 20 games according to the chart

KVB · 05-23-22, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Fade Miami next 20 games according to the chart

KVB · 05-24-22, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Fade Miami next 20 games according to the chart

I'm actually on the Marlins today, glad to see their position on that chart as well, might be betting into a "tailwind"...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

906 May 24 WAS +191

925 May 24 MIA +132...