NBA Playoff Trend Worth Noting

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65604

    #1
    NBA Playoff Trend Worth Noting
    Teams down 0-2 returning home for game three in any playoff series cover the first half game line 74 percent of the time.
    (35-12-1)

    OK, I'll bite.
    48 games is enough of a sample size, the 74 percent number makes sense as home teams down 0-2 always come out playing like their hair is on fire.

    Dallas -3 for me
    1H only
    2*
  • mjsuax13
    Moderator
    • 03-14-15
    • 25105

    #2
    Good info. Let’s go for it.
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #3
      One of these games is going to be close
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #4
        I actually have this first half moneyline at -155.

        This market has moved though, and the first half -2 has gone to -3.

        A lot of pressure on the Mavs 1st half.
        Comment
        • stevenash
          Moderator
          • 01-17-11
          • 65604

          #5
          You have a good number.
          You can't do better than -170 now.

          I laid the three, the trend just makes too much sense to fade.
          Comment
          • italianbandit
            SBR MVP
            • 05-17-11
            • 2622

            #6
            I like it, good luck. I like 1Q more.
            Comment
            • lakerboy
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-02-09
              • 94379

              #7
              Warriors can win first hf and lose game. That's what books want.
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65604

                #8
                Originally posted by lakerboy
                Warriors can win first hf and lose game. That's what books want.
                I don't think first half wagering is in the forefront of the books minds.
                What percentage of the entire sum of all the money bet on tonight's game is bet on the first half?
                My guess is between 12 and 18 percent, tops.
                Comment
                • lakerboy
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 04-02-09
                  • 94379

                  #9
                  Originally posted by stevenash
                  I don't think first half wagering is in the forefront of the books minds.
                  What percentage of the entire sum of all the money bet on tonight's game is bet on the first half?
                  My guess is between 12 and 18 percent, tops.
                  Based on the history you presented you know books are paying close attention to that.
                  Comment
                  • dark star
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-04-09
                    • 3900

                    #10
                    hate the NBA but I like money.im in
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65604

                      #11
                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                      Based on the history you presented you know books are paying close attention to that.
                      Yeah, I hear you.
                      Like I said a couple of times, the trend in logical.
                      Let's see how the 1H plays out.
                      I'm paying attention to the ticky-tack touch fouls (if there are any called) in the first half.
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        You can find trends both ways every game every sport every day
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #13
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          You can find trends both ways every game every sport every day
                          Gimme a minimum of 2000 instances though, and we're starting to get somewhere as far significance.

                          Gold I am always teaching you.
                          Comment
                          • Headsterx
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-03-16
                            • 23063

                            #14
                            I never understood why games will have the same line for 1st half and game. I’m going for a sweep, but good luck!
                            Comment
                            • Headsterx
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-03-16
                              • 23063

                              #15
                              Disregard my post, you got this as it’s solid as gold. 😂😂😂
                              Comment
                              • KVB
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 05-29-14
                                • 74817

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Headsterx
                                I never understood why games will have the same line for 1st half and game. I’m going for a sweep, but good luck!
                                Lazy books will just break it down in half or quarters.

                                But, in my office (along with many other bettors) we know that scoring is not evenly distributed so those books can get slammed.

                                The market has adjusted in recent years, but it is still not efficient.

                                Mavs 1st quarter and half really getting adjusted tonight, for example.

                                There is opportunity in these derivatives (props)
                                Comment
                                • pavyracer
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 82839

                                  #17
                                  The 1H line is +2.5 for Warriors and the game line is +3.

                                  I see a lot of value in Warriors +2.5 1H.
                                  Comment
                                  • KVB
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-29-14
                                    • 74817

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by pavyracer
                                    The 1H line is +2.5 for Warriors and the game line is +3.

                                    I see a lot of value in Warriors +2.5 1H.
                                    That first half is actually 3.5

                                    I agree at that level, it may have moved to far.

                                    I can already produce a negative hold with my -155 moneyline.

                                    This is what a professional trader should be seeking, being able to calculate these is very important.

                                    Comment
                                    • jrgum3
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 07-21-17
                                      • 7005

                                      #19
                                      I got it at -2.5 1H and I agree with the play. Dallas is going to play like a desparate team tonight so it makes sense to take them on the 1H line. I think any run the Warriors make will come in the 2H so I'm not sure I like Dallas FG but that 1H play makes sense.
                                      Comment
                                      • KVB
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-29-14
                                        • 74817

                                        #20
                                        Once again the books could move as high as they wanted, the public pays for whatever, they just want Dallas.

                                        Look how far they had to go before there was support.

                                        They took so much square public action that they are willing to bring in the traders and give them profit just to balance the books.

                                        Sure does feel like the cat got out of the bag.

                                        I think I said that already.

                                        Here's what I'm talking about...

                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                        ... ...
                                        Comment
                                        • pavyracer
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-12-07
                                          • 82839

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                          That first half is actually 3.5

                                          I agree at that level, it may have moved to far.

                                          I can already produce a negative hold with my -155 moneyline.

                                          This is what a professional trader should be seeking, being able to calculate these is very important.

                                          You are right. 1H is 3.5 and 1Q is 2.5.

                                          I think the books are giving too many points to Warriors 1H and 1Q. Trying to trap the public.
                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by pavyracer
                                            You are right. 1H is 3.5 and 1Q is 2.5.

                                            I think the books are giving too many points to Warriors 1H and 1Q. Trying to trap the public.
                                            At books where I feel a few metrics have been running hot, I sold back for profit. Let them figure that out...lol.

                                            I'm hanging on at the others.

                                            But yeah, again it feels like the cat is out of the bag.

                                            Comment
                                            • d2bets
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 08-10-05
                                              • 39995

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                              Lazy books will just break it down in half or quarters.

                                              But, in my office (along with many other bettors) we know that scoring is not evenly distributed so those books can get slammed.

                                              The market has adjusted in recent years, but it is still not efficient.

                                              Mavs 1st quarter and half really getting adjusted tonight, for example.

                                              There is opportunity in these derivatives (props)
                                              What kind of props? Player points?
                                              Comment
                                              • rake922
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-23-07
                                                • 11692

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by stevenash
                                                Teams down 0-2 returning home for game three in any playoff series cover the first half game line 74 percent of the time.
                                                (35-12-1)

                                                OK, I'll bite.
                                                48 games is enough of a sample size, the 74 percent number makes sense as home teams down 0-2 always come out playing like their hair is on fire.

                                                Dallas -3 for me
                                                1H only
                                                2*
                                                Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.
                                                Comment
                                                • KVB
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                  • 74817

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by d2bets
                                                  What kind of props? Player points?
                                                  I really was just thinking quarters, periods, and halves; sort of calling those props.

                                                  But there those mlb score each inning props can really get out of whack.

                                                  2nd inning is often off and when scoring picks up in the middle of the game it goes the other way (off) and then late in the game scoring is often where scoring drops, those lines differ a bit.

                                                  Early (1st period) nhl and early inning mlb have been the spot, but US casinos suck now, they really don't like that action, instead of adjusting to it...so it seems.

                                                  I've probably said too much but for those with a database or access, they can find edges there. And most accounts probably would get by for a good month before getting limited on those bets, if at all.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 65604

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by rake922
                                                    Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.
                                                    That is true, and I'm not ramming the bet down anybody's throat.
                                                    It's a trend that's worth noting because it makes sense.

                                                    Celtics at home made sense too last night and that turned out to be a clusterfuck.

                                                    That's why they call it gambling.
                                                    At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
                                                    It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • KVB
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                      • 74817

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by rake922
                                                      Just because something happened 74% of the time, doesn't mean it continues to run at 74% of the time going forward.
                                                      I think we can get away with 2000 instances, even in today's environment.

                                                      But of course more are better.

                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                      Gimme a minimum of 2000 instances though, and we're starting to get somewhere as far significance...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • hotcross
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-04-17
                                                        • 7934

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by stevenash
                                                        That's why they call it gambling.
                                                        At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
                                                        It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.
                                                        Hey..... Hey !!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Headsterx
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-03-16
                                                          • 23063

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                                          That is true, and I'm not ramming the bet down anybody's throat.
                                                          It's a trend that's worth noting because it makes sense.

                                                          Celtics at home made sense too last night and that turned out to be a clusterfuck.

                                                          That's why they call it gambling.
                                                          At least I'll post a play, back it up with reasoning, if it goes down, so be it.
                                                          It's not like a dart throw, like 80 percent of the posters here.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mikmik
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 05-13-12
                                                            • 5457

                                                            #30
                                                            The heck just happened wtf
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevenash
                                                              Moderator
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 65604

                                                              #31
                                                              ^
                                                              Even up nine I wasn't comfortable.

                                                              Game of swings, GSW unfortunately went on the last run.
                                                              Still got 2:00 left here.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • coop-dog
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 07-11-20
                                                                • 944

                                                                #32
                                                                bad meat
                                                                Comment
                                                                • stevenash
                                                                  Moderator
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 65604

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by coop-dog
                                                                  bad meat
                                                                  Bummer.
                                                                  Entertaining first half though.

                                                                  Even in loss, I still stand by that play.

                                                                  I'll be just fine.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • hotcross
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-04-17
                                                                    • 7934

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Maybe try the dartboard

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 65604

                                                                      #35
                                                                      ^
                                                                      Maybe next time.
                                                                      Comment
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