I got an offer

[cecil127]

One of the books I deal with is currently offering me 6/1 to cash out on a WS futures outcome that I placed @ 300/1. (Stros to beat LA) Kind of surprised they’d put that out there so soon so cecil127 may be onto something
also placed that day
LA to beat Astros 30/1
LA/Stros finals 20/1
no offers on those at the moment though…

*today I like LA (-2.5) (+170) to smack the Phil’s around in hot and humid south Philly.

[Snowball]

cash out under what terms?

[d2bets]

Do you mean 1/6?
In other words, if you bet 10 to win 3,000, they are offering to cash you out at 510 (500 win +10 stake). Do I have that right?
If so, yes take it and run!

[johnnyvegas13]

Do you mean 1/6?
In other words, if you bet 10 to win 3,000, they are offering to cash you out at 510 (500 win +10 stake). Do I have that right?
If so, yes take it and run!

I think he means 6/1 on his stake

So 60 if he bet 10

[ThaWoj]

Do you mean 1/6?
In other words, if you bet 10 to win 3,000, they are offering to cash you out at 510 (500 win +10 stake). Do I have that right?
If so, yes take it and run!

1/6 would be even worse. $1 return on every 6 bet

[cecil127]

Do you mean 1/6?
In other words, if you bet 10 to win 3,000, they are offering to cash you out at 510 (500 win +10 stake). Do I have that right?
If so, yes take it and run!

no, I mean 6/1. ( pronounced “six to one”) meaning I’m returned six units for every unit wagered…
using your base wager of 10 dollars they’d offer $60 to cash out now. Not only is your terminology wrong so Is your math. What a dream you must be for the book

60/1 might get a lil more of my attention though…I’ll keep you posted

[Snowball]

what are the odds they are offering that prop for right now?

I wonder if the 6x your wager is similar to the difference between the line you got and the current line

seems they made an error. i wonder how bad it was?

[cecil127]

cash out under what terms?

I surrender the original wager in return for six times what I bet and call it settled….f-that

[cecil127]

what are the odds they are offering that prop for right now?

I wonder if the 6x your wager is similar to the difference between the line you got and the current line

seems they made an error. i wonder how bad it was?

placed bet 4/1/22…no odds are available for this at the moment where I placed the bet. Your book may differ in which case let me know

[d2bets]

no, I mean 6/1. ( pronounced “six to one”) meaning I’m returned six units for every unit wagered…
using your base wager of 10 dollars they’d offer $60 to cash out now. Not only is your terminology wrong so Is your math. What a dream you must be for the book

60/1 might get a lil more of my attention though…I’ll keep you posted

Hardly. Pretty sure I don't get graded on terminology or on trying to interpret your cryptic messages. I know how to do the math that's necessary for me and how to place wagers. But thanks for your concern, ya dbag.

I meant are they graded the sell side at -600? Which would be 1 to 6. Which would be the math I posed.

So what you posted is they're grading the sell side at 1/30. Six and one, half a dozen of the other.

[cecil127]

Lol and you call my post “cryptic messages”….

[DrunkHorseplayer]

One of the books I deal with is currently offering me 6/1 to cash out on a WS futures outcome that I placed @ 300/1. (Stros to beat LA) Kind of surprised they’d put that out there so soon so cecil127 may be onto something
also placed that day
LA to beat Astros 30/1
LA/Stros finals 20/1
no offers on those at the moment though…

*today I like LA (-2.5) (+170) to smack the Phil’s around in hot and humid south Philly.

Looks like a bad line and I'm surprised they haven't cancelled the bet. If LA is 30/1 to beat Hou, Hou can't be 300/1 to beat LA.

[cecil127]

Looks like a bad line and I'm surprised they haven't cancelled the bet. If LA is 30/1 to beat Hou, Hou can't be 300/1 to beat LA.

it may appear that way now but on April 1 2022 they thought LA had a ten times greater chance of beating the astros if the two were to actually square off in the WS. I don’t believe it was a bad line…

[jjgold]

Books begging for cash

[risKingDigits]

I hope those cheaters never sniff a World Series for at least a decade

[cecil127]

Now offering 8/1 to cash out. What does the book know?
Oh and assholehead, it’s “six in one hand, half dozen the other”

[Headsterx]

Ops! 😂

[cecil127]

They’re currently dangling better than 13x my wager to cash out. Hmmmm….placed a Yankees World Series bet as a hedge @ (+350)

[Roscoe_Word]

Maybe one of our math guys can figure this, but I'd say, if was it was a good deal for you, they wouldn't be offering it.

[pimike]

Wow

They seemed scared

[DrunkHorseplayer]

They’re currently dangling better than 13x my wager to cash out. Hmmmm….placed a Yankees World Series bet as a hedge @ (+350)

Keep waiting; they'll probably give you a better price soon. At some point, you should take it.

[pologq]

They’re currently dangling better than 13x my wager to cash out. Hmmmm….placed a Yankees World Series bet as a hedge @ (+350)

13 x your wager at halfway thru the season? I might take it.

Let's say you bet $100. That is $1300 now with still a half season, trade deadline and the playoffs left.

[asiagambler]

Sounds like simple risk management. They are probably overexposed on that wager

Looking at fangraphs playoff projections, Astros are 32.0% to make the World Series and Dodgers are 26.9%

So both making it would be 8.6% and 4-5% for the exact outcome (+1062 and +2400/+1900)

I still think it's a bad line. Can't imagine 300/1 being correct when the reverse outcome is 30/1, even given the circumstances before the season started. (That would imply Dodgers being -1000 for the series matchup!) Seems more likely someone just typed an extra zero

If this is one of the bigger books, my opinion is that these offers are sent automatically when their system goes through their (possible) long-term liabilities and you should take the cashout before they notice

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[pologq]

deal or no deal?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I wouldn't even consider it until they offer 30-50x.

Otherwise you are in a good position to have a nice sweat for 300-1 and probably have better hedge opportunities down the line.

[cecil127]

Sounds like simple risk management. They are probably overexposed on that wager

Looking at fangraphs playoff projections, Astros are 32.0% to make the World Series and Dodgers are 26.9%

So both making it would be 8.6% and 4-5% for the exact outcome (+1062 and +2400/+1900)

I still think it's a bad line. Can't imagine 300/1 being correct when the reverse outcome is 30/1, even given the circumstances before the season started. (That would imply Dodgers being -1000 for the series matchup!) Seems more likely someone just typed an extra zero

If this is one of the bigger books, my opinion is that these offers are sent automatically when their system goes through their (possible) long-term liabilities and you should take the cashout before they notice

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

interesting…..

the same book allowed me to parlay these 2 separate wagers yesterday:
giants to win the super-bowl or rangers to win the cup or the nicks to win the championship or the Yankees to win the World Series (+250)
&
yankees to win the WS (+350)

parlay returns +1562

I couldn’t help but unload on an opportunity to get Yankees to win the WS @ 15/1.
it’ll never cash
theyll catch it or the sobs will lose to the Phil’s who I laid good gelt on NOT making the playoffs

but man…15/1

[d2bets]

interesting…..

the same book allowed me to parlay these 2 separate wagers yesterday:
giants to win the super-bowl or rangers to win the cup or the nicks to win the championship or the Yankees to win the World Series (+250)
&
yankees to win the WS (+350)

parlay returns +1562

I couldn’t help but unload on an opportunity to get Yankees to win the WS @ 15/1.
it’ll never cash
theyll catch it or the sobs will lose to the Phil’s who I laid good gelt on NOT making the playoffs

but man…15/1

Or they'll freeroll you. Keep it live if it loses and then cancel if/after it wins.

[Itsamazing777]

Any team can win in the playoffs. Take it

[cecil127]

Current odds at same book:

houston to beat dodgers: (+1400)
dodgers to beat Houston: (+1400)
dodgers to beat yanks: (+1100)
yanks to beat dodgers: (+1100)

yanks vs dodgers WS (+500)

[Optional]

Or they'll freeroll you. Keep it live if it loses and then cancel if/after it wins.

I'd guess he is talking about a US book who do not feel like they have a right to cancel it and are just trying to reduce the liability.

Could be wrong and they just have not noticed, but I'd doubt it. Even if the system is automatically making these offers, surely it would be popping up on a report someone is supposed to reviewing.

[pologq]

Any team can win in the playoffs. Take it

i am in agreement

[cecil127]

The offers, they…..they gone
Trades’ll do that to WS odds I suppose…
go yanks

[pologq]

The offers, they…..they gone
Trades’ll do that to WS odds I suppose…
go yanks

so now it is win or get fcuked?

[cecil127]

so now it is win or get fcuked?

yup, just like any other wager….

[Sledge187]

I hope those cheaters never sniff a World Series for at least a decade

Are you talking about the Dodgers?