Has to be up to -180
God I’m still trying to teach you guys
God I’m still trying to teach you guys
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As long as you get the price you want, bet it.
Nothing more to it, Gold.
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90% bet any lineComment -
you do not get dime lines on bigger favs they use up to ,40 cent lines like - 280 fav your dog ainy gonna be +270 it will be like +240
and your not suppsed to bet on any chalks in bases higher than - 160Comment -
A true dime line is usually up to -190Comment -
Gold BOL was dealing a Doyers line of -221/+201
Is that a dime line?
Sugarhouse in NJ and Parx in PA were dealing -245/+200, NJ Fan Dual had -245/+198
lolComment -
Look at those guys more than doubling the hold, on what kind of action?
BOL with 2% hold and those guys at 4.2%.
I talk about this in that last video about "Knowing Your Markets"
We'll take Zona at close to 2-1. Who's leading and who's lagging there?
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You're only betting one side, so why does it really matter what the other side is?
Book A:
Toronto -150
Seattle +130
Book B:
Toronto -155
Seattle +145
Does it matter that Book A isn't dealing a dimeline? If you want to bet on Toronto, you're better off betting into that 20 cent line than the dimeline.Comment -
How about Bet MGM?
-250/+195
5% hold.Comment -
The USA books really price gauge
It’s a disgrace
Then they wonder why offshore flourishesComment -
Back to that Dodgers/Zona game.
I work with several forecasts, as many know, and the non predictive public gauge, which I usually give as a score because I hold tight my conversions to percentages, does tell us something.
Instead of a score, I'm going to give a percentage.
Even though the public isn't thinking of break even percentages, etc, and will pay any price, I do estimate the price at which the public will question the larger number.
The puplic gauge gives us a 72% probability of winning, even though the public doesn't know it. This tells us the public might be turned off at the -257/+257 or say -255 or -260 price. It also suggest that to get the public to start thinking about a number, +250 or so just might do it.
I know we say the public doesn't care about the number, and this is pretty much true. But what I'm doing is taking this to a deeper level of public sentiment, one they bettor's themselves may not realize exists.
It's the number that would cause the bettor who doesn't care about the number, to start thinking twice when he sees the number. They often act like brackets outside the sharper predictions.
Remember, that is a non-predictive public gauge, designed to estimate publice sentiment and this is one way I use it as a gauge.
Even though the public doesn't care about numbers, they can still be affected by them, especially their pocketbooks.Comment -
Let me sum this up really easy
Player A plays at a 20 cent line shop
Player B plays at a dime line shop
Player B long term has a massive edgeComment -
On a sidenote does anybody have a fat stack?Comment -
Vegas toys around with a +190, +193, +195 line on Zona.
With my -185/+185 prediction, just how much overlay does the better need to trigger a bet?
Do I need 5 cents, 7 cents, 9 cents?
How about the 15 cents with all those +200 lines?
I'm not saying I have the ultimate stacking percentages prediction, but within the realms of reasonable and bettable overlay, and seeing the lines in the market, I have to feel pretty good about that prediction, or probability.
As if it's record compared to the market isn't enough, the line moves towards mine, usually.
I will say this, though, over the last 100 or so plays, my stacking percentages forecast has done better against the closing line than the opening, which means the line has been moving away from me.
It happens.Comment -
KVB your broke manComment -
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