NBA Home Teams Strong Game 7's

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #1
    NBA Home Teams Strong Game 7's
    Based on history, the Bucks and Mavericks will be going home on Sunday. Since the 2011 postseason (not including the bubble) home teams are 22-10 straight up in Game 7's, a staggering 68% hit rate. With that in mind, home teams are just 16-16 against the spread, as the series goes longer and the number becomes more defined, there's no edge betting the spread.

    However, favorites of 5 or more (which the Celtics and Suns both are at WynnBET Sportsbook) are 14-10 against the spread, slightly above average and are 19-5 straight up.

    There is definitely some evidence that the home teams benefit from their home court in a Game 7, but that number has been trending down lately
  • Getch13
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-13-18
    • 6948

    #2
    Both totals in today’s Game 7s have been bet down…

    209 —> 206 in Boston
    207 —> 205 in Phoenix

    Game 7 Unders: 61%
    Game 7 Unders when total moves down: 66%
    Comment
    • Easy-Rider 66
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 02-14-12
      • 36210

      #3
      Originally posted by Getch13
      Both totals in today’s Game 7s have been bet down…

      209 —> 206 in Boston
      207 —> 205 in Phoenix

      Game 7 Unders: 61%
      Game 7 Unders when total moves down: 66%
      solid info getch
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #4
        Originally posted by jjgold
        Based on history, the Bucks and Mavericks will be going home on Sunday. Since the 2011 postseason (not including the bubble) home teams are 22-10 straight up in Game 7's, a staggering 68% hit rate...
        This wasn't profitable to the bettor though.

        While it hit at 68% the average line was about -238, which requires a 70.4% win rate just to break even.

        Betting the same unit on all 32 home team moneylines cited in the original post did not yield a profit.

        In fact, it's resulted in less than even units the last 4 years, depending on the moneyline the bettor was able to get.

        The best year there would have been in 2015, where less than +2 units would have been won.

        Comment
        • Getch13
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-13-18
          • 6948

          #5
          If you like the dog Bucks here's a strong trend I posted earlier after game one: Game 1 has decided 95% of Celtics series the last 20+ years.


          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388179

            #6
            Remember Boston should’ve won easy the last home game it was a fluke Milwaukee stole that game it won’t happen again
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #7
              I'm on both UNDERS tonight, probably going 1-1 there.
              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #8
                Originally posted by jjgold
                Remember Boston should’ve won easy the last home game it was a fluke Milwaukee stole that game it won’t happen again
                The result is in, period.

                No excuses, no flukes, nothing. That's all noise.
                Comment
                • KiDBaZkiT
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-20-09
                  • 14962

                  #9
                  Originally posted by KVB
                  I'm on both UNDERS tonight, probably going 1-1 there.
                  I see 2-0
                  Comment
                  • goduke
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-10
                    • 11580

                    #10
                    Probably going to go celts and Mavs based on this
                    Comment
                    • goduke
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-10
                      • 11580

                      #11
                      Remember when game 7s actually were games until the end? Now this years playoffs these games all seem to be over at halftime.
                      Celts second half is -1.5 which means the rest of the game is just going to be these two teams dancing around that number with no real chance for the bucks to win.
                      Nice throw job on the first quarter by the celts though. Man this is WWE at its finest in this big game
                      Comment
                      • 209 Life
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-15-18
                        • 3146

                        #12
                        Too many fouls. Whistle for everything
                        Comment
                        • KiDBaZkiT
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-20-09
                          • 14962

                          #13
                          Originally posted by 209 Life
                          Too many fouls. Whistle for everything
                          The FLOPSton Celtics. Smart tries to create a whistle on every play he’s involved in offense or defense. Was a good game until this third quarter.
                          Comment
                          • lakerboy
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 04-02-09
                            • 94379

                            #14
                            NBA is a joke league.
                            Comment
                            • jjgold
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-20-05
                              • 388179

                              #15
                              Pound Suns next ML

                              easy cash
                              Comment
                              • goduke
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-17-10
                                • 11580

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lakerboy
                                NBA is a joke league.
                                I shut the game off at halftime. Only way to show this stupid league that people dont appreciate their rigged games.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  Duke pound Phoenix
                                  Comment
                                  • goduke
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-17-10
                                    • 11580

                                    #18
                                    Suns looking good. Paul is a born loser
                                    Comment
                                    • goduke
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-17-10
                                      • 11580

                                      #19
                                      The Suns performance today might be the worse showing ever in a Game 7 in the history of the nba. If I was the fans I would have walked out
                                      Comment
                                      • lakerboy
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-02-09
                                        • 94379

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by goduke
                                        The Suns performance today might be the worse showing ever in a Game 7 in the history of the nba. If I was the fans I would have walked out
                                        Despicable man. Imagine paying for this?
                                        Comment
                                        • Mac4Lyfe
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-04-09
                                          • 48383

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by goduke
                                          The Suns performance today might be the worse showing ever in a Game 7 in the history of the nba. If I was the fans I would have walked out
                                          They finally scored 40 points with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. My AAU team put up 40 points in our first 8 minutes of the game today.
                                          Comment
                                          • JIBBBY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-10-09
                                            • 83686

                                            #22
                                            Suns with the most embarrassing loss in a game 7 at home in NBA history. Feel bad for the Suns fans that paid to see this garbage. Lol..

                                            I would have left at half time to avoid traffic if I went to this game.

                                            Good for the Mavs!!
                                            Comment
                                            • goduke
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-17-10
                                              • 11580

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by lakerboy
                                              Despicable man. Imagine paying for this?
                                              I was thinking that. These athletes are always bitching that the fans are mean to them but in this situation I think it would be ok. If I went to work and delivered a performance like this someone would be chewing me out
                                              Comment
                                              • KVB
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 05-29-14
                                                • 74817

                                                #24
                                                As far as a home team loss in a game 7 I had to go back to 2005 to find one more than 19 points. Indiana beat Boston 97-70 for 27 points.

                                                There have been bigger game 7 blowouts, but it's the home team winning.

                                                In 1948 the Philadelphia Warriors beat the St. Louis Bombers in St Louis by 39 points, 85-46, in a game 7.

                                                Otherwise this could the biggest game 7 home loss, so I guess it's number 2 all time.
                                                Comment
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