some good value in the NHL tonight and FLA and CAR resting players

[DwightShrute]

Lots of their stars are sitting this one out as they did last night.

Gustav Forsling
(Defenseman) | Florida Panthers
Forsling (rest) will not play Thursday in Ottawa.



MacKenzie Weegar
(Left Defenseman) | Florida Panthers
Weegar (rest) will not play Thursday in Ottawa.



Claude Giroux
(Left Wing) | Florida Panthers
Barkov (rest) will not play Thursday in Ottawa.

Jonathan Huberdeau
(Left Wing) | Florida Panthers
Huberdeau (rest) will not play Thursday in Ottawa.


Jaccob Slavin
(Right Defenseman) | Carolina Hurricanes
Slavin (rest) is not expected to play on Thursday.

The Hurricanes have clinched the Metropolitan Division, so Slavin, Jordan Staal and Andrei Svechnikov are all expected to sit out on Thursday. Ethan Bear will draw into the lineup to replace Slavin.


Jordan Staal
(Center) | Carolina Hurricanes
Staal (rest) is not expected to play on Thursday.
The Hurricanes have clinched the Metropolitan Division, so Staal, Andrei Svechnikov and Jaccob Slavin are all expected to sit out on Thursday. Jesperi Kotkaniemi will return to the lineup to replace Staal.



Andrei Svechnikov
(Left Wing) | Carolina Hurricanes
Svechnikov (rest) is not expected to play on Thursday.
The Hurricanes have clinched the Metropolitan Division, so Svechnikov, Jordan Staal and Jaccob Slavin are all expected to sit out on Thursday. Steven Lorentz will replace Svechnikov in the lineup.

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/hockey-player-news/line-changes/

________________________________________ _______________________


BUFFALO +252
OTTAWA +144

worth a shot



Yesterday
ARIZONA +380 win
CHICAGO +178 win
SEATTLE +129

[Greget]

Caribbean Ocean!! HABAHAHABHAHAHABBHA

[Mike Huntertz]

Good stuff GL

[KiDBaZkiT]

I’m taking Under 1.5 goals 1p +145 in Devils/Canes. Not sure why as I have hit “Yes” goal in the first ten minutes and cashed many times over the last couple months.

[stevex]

Bump.

[lakerboy]

NHL just all chalk. I didn't make one NHL play in last 5 months.

[pavyracer]

Maybe the games were rigged and Florida and Carolina didn't legitimately win just like Biden didn't win and stole the election from Trump?

[lakerboy]

Maybe the games were rigged and Florida and Carolina didn't legitimately win just like Biden didn't win and stole the election from Trump?

I heard Ottawa and the Devils mailed it in

[DwightShrute]

I heard Ottawa and the Devils mailed it in

[KVB]

NHL just all chalk. I didn't make one NHL play in last 5 months.

Been brutal

Finally on a run last couple of days.

Finally.

Here's the units for every favorite bought at the close...

[stevex]

NHL just all chalk. I didn't make one NHL play in last 5 months.

Have to agree with you here. NHL has been a chalk lovers dream this year.

[Mike Huntertz]

I heard Ottawa and the Devils mailed it in

[pilebuck13]

NHL just all chalk. I didn't make one NHL play in last 5 months.

All sports are primarily chalk these days bro open your eyes man…. Look at MLB today lol idk what’s going on something just weird ever since the us markets opened up…. Almost all favorites won today mlb all lines were like mostly-140 and up lol

[pilebuck13]

White Sox and San Diego only non chalk lines and everyone was on reds today lol…. Idk shits weird lately

[KVB]

All sports are primarily chalk these days bro open your eyes man…. Look at MLB today lol idk what’s going on something just weird ever since the us markets opened up…. Almost all favorites won today mlb all lines were like mostly-140 and up lol

There can be cycles and we've seen effects from both us markets widening and rebounds from COVID, believe it or not. And it doesn't always equal chalk but yeah, here are someMLB stats...

Betting the same 1 unit on every MLB favorite this season would net about +12 units with about a 4% ROI.

Doing that same for every dog this season would net a loss of about -42 units with an ROI of about -14.8%.

The favorite win rate this season is 62.94%, which would equate to a no vig line of -169.84.

The average price of all the favorites at the close so far this season is -158.84, implying a 61.36% probability.

We can break it down further, but you can see a general market that is running hot.

[pilebuck13]

There can be cycles and we've seen effects from both us markets widening and rebounds from COVID, believe it or not. And it doesn't always equal chalk but yeah, here are someMLB stats...

Betting the same 1 unit on every MLB favorite this season would net about +12 units with about a 4% ROI.

Doing that same for every dog this season would net a loss of about -42 units with an ROI of about -14.8%.

The favorite win rate this season is 62.94%, which would equate to a no vig line of -169.84.

The average price of all the favorites at the close so far this season is -158.84, implying a 61.36% probability.

We can break it down further, but you can see a general market that is running hot.

Noticed the change after Covid to be honest

[KVB]

White Sox and San Diego only non chalk lines and everyone was on reds today lol…. Idk shits weird lately

It's a long season, a lot will happen, that's for sure.

[KVB]

Noticed the change after Covid to be honest

Yup.

And the COVID year was particularly odd one, expecially in NCAAF.

[KVB]

Truth is I've posted The Broader Contrarian Fund since back posting but specifically say no backbone plays. I had no NCAAB contrarian plays through conference play.

I am in the process of tweaking and research to gain a better understanding of what is happening. All my gauges are still valid, but when it comes to what should be better market tracking Funds, I think there is room for improvement.

I hear you piler, you aren't the only that noticed. Things really are more volatile now, the better is getting taken for more of a ride and thus, because they are not disciplined in bet sizes, are getting owned by the market.

Look at the favorite chart above.

You think favorite bettors kept their units at 1 unit in all that success? They got used, even in a rising seas raise all ships environment. I guarantee it.

[pilebuck13]

Truth is I've posted The Broader Contrarian Fund since back posting but specifically say no backbone plays. I had no NCAAB contrarian plays through conference play.

I am in the process of tweaking and research to gain a better understanding of what is happening. All my gauges are still valid, but when it comes to what should be better market tracking Funds, I think there is room for improvement.

I hear you piler, you aren't the only that noticed. Things really are more volatile now, the better is getting taken for more of a ride and thus, because they are not disciplined in bet sizes, are getting owned by the market.

Look at the favorite chart above.

You think favorite bettors kept their units at 1 unit in all that success? They got used, even in a rising seas raise all ships environment. I guarantee it.

Makes definite sense I just feel adjustments need to be made glad I’m not the only one to notice a difference in the market

[stevex]

White Sox and San Diego only non chalk lines and everyone was on reds today lol…. Idk shits weird lately

Lately? I would even make the argument that chalk has been a money maker in ALL sports over the past year. Maybe two if we go back to prime Covid days. There is a trend I’m sure but will it turn around is the question?

[stevex]

Tradition just has not hold true, in my opinion. Favorites have been destroying “the markets” in all sports for the past year or two. I’m not saying go and bet -200 favorites each game but it’s been leaning that way for a long time now. Do we adjust and add chalk to models now? I don’t know.

[BeatTheJerk]

Been brutal

Finally on a run last couple of days.

Finally.

Here's the units for every favorite bought at the close...

Those units got to be a lot more for the opener. I’ve seen the Florida Panthers go from -310 to -450 at least a dozen times this year & that’s just one team. The openers could even be 4X the units on your tracking.

[jjgold]

backups are pros

One game there is never an edge

[pavyracer]

backups are pros

One game there is never an edge

I thought the only thing that matters is the numbers? Now you are saying that players have an impact in the outcome of a game? How come?

[lakerboy]

Yup.

And the COVID year was particularly odd one, expecially in NCAAF.

Covid really hit dogs hard.

[pilebuck13]

Covid fuked everything up

[DwightShrute]

WTF? I make a thread with a few posted NHL plays and go 3-0 and get maybe 2 replies. One with a and the other about basketball.

I make a thread and go 0-2 in NHL and it turns into another Trump thread well on it's way to 2 million views

[BeatTheJerk]

WTF? I make a thread with a few posted NHL plays and go 3-0 and get maybe 2 replies. One with a and the other about basketball.

I make a thread and go 0-2 in NHL and it turns into another Trump thread well on it's way to 2 million views

just some miscellaneous players talk right quick …

[BeatTheJerk]

DwightShrute “our DOLPHINS might be a nice & exciting watch this year if things workout.” I might be willing to wager on them to win the Superbowl just because f u c k the bookie he owes me this one. 2016 & 2019 have been my best years last 6 only because of huge parlay winnings or futures. It’s 2022 & the tend is my friend with my history. Throw 50 on it come on lol I’ll throw .5 unit on it just to keep my interest on it.

[BeatTheJerk]

DwightShrute “our DOLPHINS might be a nice & exciting watch this year if things workout.” I might be willing to wager on them to win the Superbowl just because f u c k the bookie he owes me this one. 2016 & 2019 have been my best years last 6 only because of huge parlay winnings or futures. It’s 2022 & the tend is my friend with my history. Throw 50 on it come on lol I’ll throw .5 unit on it just to keep my interest on it.

One unit = 1,000

[DwightShrute]

One unit = 1,000

can't wait to see how the Fish do this year. Hill and Waddle should open the offense for so much more. Our TE's ae solid as well and so is our D.

TUA is the wild card.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm taking a whack of NHL dogs tonight. Same senario as last night.

[DwightShrute]

I'm taking a whack of NHL dogs tonight. Same senario as last night.

me too

look at all the players sitting out. https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/hockey-player-news/
Panthers won the president's trophy so they are gonna have a let down tonight right?

[DwightShrute]

Florida cliched #1 overall and get home ice for in the finals when they play the Flames. Carey Price between the pipes tonight at home. Panthers starting their 3rd string goalie. Habs 5-3
MONTREAL +160

JT Miller needs 2 points for 100 on the season. Look for him to get it in a shootout in Edmonton. 5-4 Vancouver?
TOTAL o6 (VANCOUVER vrs EDMONTON)

Lindholm, Bergeron, Marchant, Hall, Pastrnak, Haula, Grzelcyk and McAvoy all sitting for the Bruins in Toronto. Leafs 3-0
Leafs -125
Leafs -1½ +207

Dallas needs a win and a Smashville loss to avoid playing the Avs in round one. Preds don't play for 2 hours after the Stars' game begins. Stars 4-2. Preds 5-2
DALLAS -1½ +105
NASHVILLE -1½ -105