Vanvleet is doubtful with that hip. We can scratch him. Toronto proved that the Sixers have fallen downhill so quickly since Embiid's thumb injury that they didn't need him at all. As Embiid modifies his offense as a pure necessity, the rest of the team did not adjust well. Not at all. It was the time when they needed Harden to become his (former?) self and take more shots. Not only did Harden not take enough shots, but the ones he took were far below normal percentages.
I would have sat Embiid last game. He's really uncomfortable. Still, with 2 days of rest, maybe his thumb won't bother him so much, but he'll be worried about it, won't be able to penetrate, then will stop trying... he's in a lot of pain as the game wears on. Toronto knows they can foul him and keep hitting his thumb. It's worth it. Makes his shots less likely, his passes less accurate, and his loss of swagger infectious to the team.
I'd rather seem Embiid not play tonight. They will need him as strong as possible in a Gm 7. This won't happen, though, because Doc likes to push and depend upon his stars in the big games, and this still IS a closeout game.
Seeing the line stick here requires one to just forget about Gm 5 in Philly. That wouldn't be so much of a problem if it wasn't HOW the 76ers lost. It was in all ways, a bad loss. Charles Barkley, who has been strong on his calls (does that mean he's due to drop one?) said, after Gm 5, that the 76ers have "NO CHANCE" to win Gm 6.
I think the real reason the line has stuck, and the series line is still so wide, is that the USA is where virtually all the money comes in that drives this line, and they still expect the 76ers to deliver, even tonight. The other possibility is of course that the books are trying to suck in Phily backers with the impression that their real odds of winning Gm 6 are better-than-expected. It's the oldest trick in the book.
Because I have profits from the hedge-out, and from the last couple days (things I don't post like Euroball, bigger faves like Bucks, GSW, Alt Totals, etc.), I want to take the Raptors. Their length, speed and momentum is going to put the same pressures on a losing-identity Philly team that is a little too young in some spots, too old in Harden's, and injured in their primary key player. Harden doesn't look key anymore. What's he going to do? Throw up 60 shots and hope enough go in? With the Raps big arms and no recent reason to think he can go off like that, it's a fade.
So, exactly how can the 76ers win? They will need star-level showings from non-stars, and Embiid to be Embiid, which he really just can't do. His surgeon said, "Every time he grabs the ball, it hurts. It’s not like it’s a dainty thing. He’s grabbing it and so it hurts a fair amount." This pain gets worse as the game goes on.
The Raptors did know how, and really just weren't good enough -- to beat a healthy Philly with Embiid peaking here as a player. That's all gone, and now the steadiness Philly exhibited, the snappy, confident passes, their whole plan of not turning the ball over, shooting early, getting back, is much harder because they are out of sync mentally, they aren't used to having Embiid check out like this, his role changed, sure he's out there -- but it's not really him.
We shouldn't worry about what the line is trying to do. The books have to balance their risks. They are not going to allow a significant vulnerability to big losses if Toronto wins. So, where is the Raptor coin? It's Canada... that's why. Basketball wise, it's not even 2% of the betting market. I believe the books have it balanced, that's their professional duty, not to overexpose their corporate owners to losses by "taking" a side.
Possible Bets:
- Harden 3p's at Over 2.5 +150. Harden should take a lot more shots. 3 is nothing unordinary. He's a better 3p shooter than Tobias Harris, so this should be a part of their game plan. Harden should shoot at will until he can find a rhythm.
- Harden pts Over 20.5 -125. Like the other, these new props show much much expectations for James Harden have fallen off, with the stats lately and the eye test.
Why I like these: 1) Toronto may have big leads, putting the emphasis on longer shots from the Sixers, esp. without Embiid in the paint effectively. 2) Taking the shot while there is any separation from the long defense of TOR. 3) Embiid's public comment after Gm 5 called out Harden, saying he needs to take more shots. One thing the Beard can do, is huck up balls. He's probably, like "ok.. so you want me to make more shots? I can do that..." -- and he'll become that old ball hog, much less passing, just throw the ball at the damn rim.
- Raptors -8.5 +290 high payout for the probability, if Philly doesn't have much of a chance late, and the long shots dont fall, the Raps will thrive on fans pushing them to make a statement, burning with confidence in Gm 7 to make NBA history.
- half Raptors TT Over 107.5 +130. My book has them at -120 for 104.5 -- I'm not paying 50 basis points for 3 points. I suppose Raptors could slow the game down if they have a big lead, but that's a lot less likely at home, they will want to make a statement.. and ring it up... plus, Philly is unlikely to take a lot of time on their possessions.
I might add some more and haven't placed these bets yet. Final decisions in a few hours.
I would have sat Embiid last game. He's really uncomfortable. Still, with 2 days of rest, maybe his thumb won't bother him so much, but he'll be worried about it, won't be able to penetrate, then will stop trying... he's in a lot of pain as the game wears on. Toronto knows they can foul him and keep hitting his thumb. It's worth it. Makes his shots less likely, his passes less accurate, and his loss of swagger infectious to the team.
I'd rather seem Embiid not play tonight. They will need him as strong as possible in a Gm 7. This won't happen, though, because Doc likes to push and depend upon his stars in the big games, and this still IS a closeout game.
Seeing the line stick here requires one to just forget about Gm 5 in Philly. That wouldn't be so much of a problem if it wasn't HOW the 76ers lost. It was in all ways, a bad loss. Charles Barkley, who has been strong on his calls (does that mean he's due to drop one?) said, after Gm 5, that the 76ers have "NO CHANCE" to win Gm 6.
I think the real reason the line has stuck, and the series line is still so wide, is that the USA is where virtually all the money comes in that drives this line, and they still expect the 76ers to deliver, even tonight. The other possibility is of course that the books are trying to suck in Phily backers with the impression that their real odds of winning Gm 6 are better-than-expected. It's the oldest trick in the book.
Because I have profits from the hedge-out, and from the last couple days (things I don't post like Euroball, bigger faves like Bucks, GSW, Alt Totals, etc.), I want to take the Raptors. Their length, speed and momentum is going to put the same pressures on a losing-identity Philly team that is a little too young in some spots, too old in Harden's, and injured in their primary key player. Harden doesn't look key anymore. What's he going to do? Throw up 60 shots and hope enough go in? With the Raps big arms and no recent reason to think he can go off like that, it's a fade.
So, exactly how can the 76ers win? They will need star-level showings from non-stars, and Embiid to be Embiid, which he really just can't do. His surgeon said, "Every time he grabs the ball, it hurts. It’s not like it’s a dainty thing. He’s grabbing it and so it hurts a fair amount." This pain gets worse as the game goes on.
The Raptors did know how, and really just weren't good enough -- to beat a healthy Philly with Embiid peaking here as a player. That's all gone, and now the steadiness Philly exhibited, the snappy, confident passes, their whole plan of not turning the ball over, shooting early, getting back, is much harder because they are out of sync mentally, they aren't used to having Embiid check out like this, his role changed, sure he's out there -- but it's not really him.
We shouldn't worry about what the line is trying to do. The books have to balance their risks. They are not going to allow a significant vulnerability to big losses if Toronto wins. So, where is the Raptor coin? It's Canada... that's why. Basketball wise, it's not even 2% of the betting market. I believe the books have it balanced, that's their professional duty, not to overexpose their corporate owners to losses by "taking" a side.
Possible Bets:
- Harden 3p's at Over 2.5 +150. Harden should take a lot more shots. 3 is nothing unordinary. He's a better 3p shooter than Tobias Harris, so this should be a part of their game plan. Harden should shoot at will until he can find a rhythm.
- Harden pts Over 20.5 -125. Like the other, these new props show much much expectations for James Harden have fallen off, with the stats lately and the eye test.
Why I like these: 1) Toronto may have big leads, putting the emphasis on longer shots from the Sixers, esp. without Embiid in the paint effectively. 2) Taking the shot while there is any separation from the long defense of TOR. 3) Embiid's public comment after Gm 5 called out Harden, saying he needs to take more shots. One thing the Beard can do, is huck up balls. He's probably, like "ok.. so you want me to make more shots? I can do that..." -- and he'll become that old ball hog, much less passing, just throw the ball at the damn rim.
- Raptors -8.5 +290 high payout for the probability, if Philly doesn't have much of a chance late, and the long shots dont fall, the Raps will thrive on fans pushing them to make a statement, burning with confidence in Gm 7 to make NBA history.
- half Raptors TT Over 107.5 +130. My book has them at -120 for 104.5 -- I'm not paying 50 basis points for 3 points. I suppose Raptors could slow the game down if they have a big lead, but that's a lot less likely at home, they will want to make a statement.. and ring it up... plus, Philly is unlikely to take a lot of time on their possessions.
I might add some more and haven't placed these bets yet. Final decisions in a few hours.
