KVB, Lakerboy And D2Bets Putting On Handicapping Clinics Daily

[KVB]

taught me how to appreciate plumpers

reported

[DiggityDaggityDo]

reported

[jjgold]

Majority of guys here bad compared
To them

[Booya711]

I have never seen d2bets post a play…but at least you got 2 out of 3 here

[KVB]

Sometimes the basics...

Good Luck Snowball.

It's a good time talk about parlay.

Why does snowy get +892 on this parlay?

I have often seen at SBR, including some guy named Justin7 in a video, "incorrectly" calculate the vigorish on parlays. Many claim a parlay to be just one bet, of three games, anbd make their calculation from there.

But it doesn't work that way.

A parlay is not one bet of three games, it's three bets, parlayed together.

Let me explain.

If Snowy puts $100 on this parlay, he is betting $100 on a game then parlaying it into the next game.

If he wins game 1, the +105, he wins $105 and returns $205.

He now takes that $205 and bets it on the next game, Chicago, at +125.

If it he wins, he wins $265.25 and returns the original $205 bet for $461.25.

Now $461.25 it is bet into New Orleans, at +115.

This makes a $530.44 win, and returns the original $461.25 for $991.69.

There's your +892 winnings and Snowy's original $100 bet being returned.

Whether the games go off together or not, this is how a parlay is calculated. When you calculating the vigorish, you don't just count the $100 bet, you count ALL the risk I listed above.

Not one bet, on three games; but, rather, one bet, parlayed into another bet and into another bet.

In this way, a parlay is a good way to decrease risk, risking just one unit for 3 bets, and increase reward, by compounding the payout. This is useful for a variety of reasons...

[KVB]

Sometimes something a little more advanced...

Sometimes they don't all have to he the best odds, just one of them does.

I know it's an extra step in the process, but if you consider schedule, and you can put yourself in a position to hedge, cancelling the juice it would normally cost. Soak it up in the varying odds. There's many ways to do it, this is one.

You can bet on other things than the games, in a sense. How good at you at predicting line movment?

I can make advantage Forecasts that predict line movement at a far greater rate than they do at predicting the winners, or commensurate moneyline percentages. And when I predict the line movement there is higher success, on many fronts. It brings in another set of percentages to stack.

If you have a third game, a wheel game if you will, you might be able to put yourself in a position to win.

We get games of varying probability of success. Whether you are using math, modeling, experience, intuition, whatever, each time your method will have a probabilty.

Everyone's had that game, they just know they got right, and do. The subjective bettor may have seen benefits from an alignment of factors that gave him a huge edge that night.

More advanced bettors know what I'm talking about, too. They see it in the percentages. The percentages, we call them diamonds in the rough.

In all cases, it's the line that the bettor is looking that makes the difference.

And when you get a diamond in the rough, or something in the zone, you might be able use it to put yourself in a position to win later in the parlay.

The earlier the lines open, the earlier a bettor can take advantage.

Make no mistake, in a sport like the NFL, there can be quite a bit of lot of trading on Sunday that is simply vigorish being offset by smart money that is spread out.

These fukkers even incorporate teasers now...

[KVB]

For bettors of all levels but much more for us using our computers and models to calculate an edge...

I took the UNDER in Texas.

Took 9 at -105 early, then 8.5 at -105, and then again 8 at (-104 and -103).

I could have filled the position at 8.5 and 9 for -115 type prices, could have done that, mathematically, no problem to a certain price limit.

But I played the market and points to the limit of my edge a different way. I allowed points to fall to pay a cheaper price. I knew which way this line would move, or better to say I had an idea of which way and I could measure a high degree of statistical signifcance as far as confidence in that line movment prediction, so made an investment plan.

For LT, it will be more like he's passing on a close one and then it moves into his favor. This is the most common reason for us to trigger a bet.

Regardless, never forget that the market can know about this effect on bettors and the originators and bookmakers will exploit these principles to generate the action they need or want when they need or want it...

Mathematically, depending on the edge you are working with, those two methods of market entry can be virtually the same.

Truthfully, with the sample above, if you can get a good price initially, it will over time result in more profit. Kind of like buying a stock all at once for long term, or nipping away a at it. Research shows it can be better just to enter the market.

I am working on a way to overcome that difference with the pricing I seek.

One of the principles at work here and that I am experimenting with is that as the books raise their prices, they add in vigorish. Further, some books will exploit this even more, like in the LIVE markets, at opportune times.

Not much vig added between -108 and -113, but there are times where the difference is only the vig.

Think about it.

Saloon Think Tank this shit.

[agendaman]

LTPROFITS regular season nba daily picks finished at plus 16.15 units.he helped pay my rent.

[stevenash]

LTPROFITS regular season nba daily picks finished at plus 16.15 units.he helped pay my rent.

He's a living legend.

[stevenash]

*double post*