So I've been hitting about 60-70% of my spreads over a 2 month period in NBA

[johnnyvegas13]

About 60-70%

lol

[d2bets]

The 76ers line went from 230 to 234.5

I hope you guys played it

Good call on that.

Looks like a solid 58% play.

[EGrecu]

Good call on that.

Looks like a solid 58% play.

It's up to 236

When you beat a closing line by 6 points, you typically have like a 75% chance of winning

[d2bets]

It's up to 236

When you beat a closing line by 6 points, you typically have like a 75% chance of winning

So then you'll give me U230+300? I didn't think so.

6 points on the total is not worth that much. On the spread across key numbers, perhaps. But on the total, each number is maybe 2-2.5%. So it's more like 62-65%. Very good, but certainly not 75%. Regardless, you do that every time and you're gonna win.

[jjgold]

Grecu reading things closely

[EGrecu]

So then you'll give me U230+300? I didn't think so.

6 points on the total is not worth that much. On the spread across key numbers, perhaps. But on the total, each number is maybe 2-2.5%. So it's more like 62-65%. Very good, but certainly not 75%. Regardless, you do that every time and you're gonna win.

True

[gauchojake]

Math guys check in

[EGrecu]

Grecu reading things closely

Won on providence ML

I am on fiiiire

[DJK]

I was watching the game while playing Tiles at Hard Rock casino in AC, and this has to be the ABSOLUTE WORST BEAT on the over 230 bet.

Both teams subbed out the starters and the scrubs couldn't score shit and with still 2:13 left, they couldn't freaking score 4 points to at least push and end up losing by stinking ONE POINT.

What's worse, the Sixers ML was dead in the first quarter.


Better be careful with two losses like these. Could trigger a landslide of losses.

[juicername]

What's the winning percentage on posted plays now, including two -180 plays?

[d2bets]

So then you'll give me U230+300? I didn't think so.

6 points on the total is not worth that much. On the spread across key numbers, perhaps. But on the total, each number is maybe 2-2.5%. So it's more like 62-65%. Very good, but certainly not 75%. Regardless, you do that every time and you're gonna win.

229

[eidolon]

Going 60%+ is possible over 200 games. But that is about it. Basically impossible over 1000+ games.

[juicername]

Going 60%+ is possible over 200 games. But that is about it. Basically impossible over 1000+ games.

And he he has with his four picks in this tread picked two -180 favorites which require a win percent of 64.3% just to break even ...

[d2bets]

Going 60%+ is possible over 200 games. But that is about it. Basically impossible over 1000+ games.

It's impossible if you're throwing darts. It's possible if you crush the closing line. Tough, though. 57-58% is probably more realistic. My hold in the last 19 months big volume is a little over 5%, which translates to 55%. IMO that should be the target. 55% long-term high volume. Do the math. Wager $100,000 you win $5,000. Wager $1 million you would $50,000. Better yet wager $20 million you win $1 million. You get the idea. No need to hit a mythical 65-70% or whatever. That's tout bullshit.

Edit: I agree 60% is impossible., and shouldn't even be the goal because to do that you have to sacrifice volume. But 55-56% is definitely possible. Actually it's easy if you put in the work.

[WireWire]

It's impossible if you're throwing darts. It's possible if you crush the closing line. Tough, though. 57-58% is probably more realistic. My hold in the last 19 months big volume is a little over 5%, which translates to 55%. IMO that should be the target. 55% long-term high volume. Do the math. Wager $100,000 you win $5,000. Wager $1 million you would $50,000. Better yet wager $20 million you win $1 million. You get the idea. No need to hit a mythical 65-70% or whatever. That's tout bullshit.

Edit: I agree 60% is impossible., and shouldn't even be the goal because to do that you have to sacrifice volume. But 55-56% is definitely possible. Actually it's easy if you put in the work.

[biggie12]

Untill He posts a video he is a clown and u guys are just feeding into his obsession

[d2bets]

Sorry you don't know to win.

[WireWire]

Sorry you don't know to win.

[d2bets]

It's easy to win if you have money, knowledge, discipline, and time. That's it. That's the 4 ingredients.

[EGrecu]

Went 2-0 yesterday- texas A&m and bulls

Today I'm playing Memphis (though I bought a point to make it 4.5) and celtics mavs under 216.5


Holy shit I put 8k on celtics line and its already at 214

[mjsuax13]

Bump!