BC v. Pitt (2pm) Anyone have an angle?

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65599

    #1
    BC v. Pitt (2pm) Anyone have an angle?
    BC -2 (129)

    Two pretty identical crappy ACC teams.
    BC can't score and BC can't rebound.

    Pitt (IMO) is the better of the crappy teams, but not by much.
    My go to source, Jeff Sagarin has it pretty much a pick on a neutral court.

    I'll probably pass. but leaning grab the bucket and Pitt +2
  • Machba
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-08-19
    • 6773

    #2
    Pitt wins
    Comment
    • Otters27
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 07-14-07
      • 30759

      #3
      Lol. I think I took the over
      Comment
      • USCPHILLYGUY
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-15-12
        • 21746

        #4
        I’d say Pitt definitely has the better talent. Played a lot of teams close earlier in the year. Just fell apart as of late. Though pretty sure BC has covered the last 3?
        Comment
        • johnnyvegas13
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 05-21-15
          • 27897

          #5
          Lol cmon Nash first game out the gate

          u might b a degen
          Comment
          • Justin3587
            SBR MVP
            • 08-29-12
            • 2566

            #6
            I would say over. But I’m weighing taking it.

            I do know both teams are gonna be hype. But they both suck ass.
            Comment
            • stevenash
              Moderator
              • 01-17-11
              • 65599

              #7
              Originally posted by Otters27
              Lol. I think I took the over
              Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY
              I’d say Pitt definitely has the better talent. Played a lot of teams close earlier in the year. Just fell apart as of late. Though pretty sure BC has covered the last 3?
              <br>I'm thinking the same way.
              Yeah Philly, three straight.
              Comment
              • Chi_archie
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-22-08
                • 63172

                #8
                How healthy is Bickerstaff?

                I saw he came back in bc's last game, but only played 4 mins. Reinjury?
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388179

                  #9
                  no angle is always a good angle in gambling
                  Comment
                  • stevenash
                    Moderator
                    • 01-17-11
                    • 65599

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Chi_archie
                    How healthy is Bickerstaff?

                    I saw he came back in bc's last game, but only played 4 mins. Reinjury?
                    He's got a calf problem, those non-bone injuries are difficult to diagnosis, it's not like an ankle where X-Rays and other technology which can give you a better idea regarding severity.

                    Didn't he have COVID earlier too?
                    Comment
                    • Mackballs
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-01-16
                      • 5810

                      #11
                      Over
                      Comment
                      • stevenash
                        Moderator
                        • 01-17-11
                        • 65599

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Mackballs
                        Over
                        On it.
                        I wish I got 129, I got 129.5
                        Now it's 130

                        Game line flat lining at 2
                        Comment
                        • Jayvegas420
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 03-09-11
                          • 28213

                          #13
                          BC by DD
                          Comment
                          • Chi_archie
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-22-08
                            • 63172

                            #14
                            Originally posted by stevenash
                            On it.
                            I wish I got 129, I got 129.5
                            Now it's 130

                            Game line flat lining at 2

                            Pointsbet has 128 -115 right now
                            Comment
                            • Chi_archie
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-22-08
                              • 63172

                              #15
                              oh i guess line is moving everywhere
                              Comment
                              • johnnyvegas13
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 05-21-15
                                • 27897

                                #16
                                Ok what the play here
                                Comment
                                • KVB
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 05-29-14
                                  • 74817

                                  #17
                                  Here's what I have for market information Nasher.

                                  The stacking percentages forecast show BC winning by 7 points, 72-65, and the non-predictive public gauge shows BC winning 66-63.

                                  This line has moved towards both forecast, although only about a half point since the open. The public gauge is much closer to the spread and Total offered while the stacking forecast indicates an OVER.

                                  My sources indicate that both money and tickets are on BC and while the tickets are on the OVER, the money is a bit more split as this Total has even dropped a bit.

                                  Note that the market is failry tight on the spread and I have identified what we consider sharp trades on BC -1.5 and also on Pitt +2.5.

                                  Our lean here is with the stacking percentages forecast but there is risk as it appears the book is will to take a small position on Pitt.

                                  Disclosures...

                                  The stacking percentages forecast is 55-43-2 against the opening spread and 53-46-1 against the close over the last 100 plays. Over the last 250 plays, the stacking forecast is 133-107-10 against the opening spread and 130-112-8 over the close.

                                  When it comes to the Total, the stackng forecast is not as strong. Over the last 100 plays it is 48-47-5 against the open and 46-48-6 against the closing line. Over the last 250 plays the stacking forecast is 122-120-8 against the opening Total and 120-119-11 against the closing Total.

                                  The performance against is spread is relatively strong, the Total not so much. Evidence indicates the stacking Forecast still maintains the small edge against both the spread and Total long term.

                                  Once we hit the actual march madness, the NCAA tourney, the stacking forecast will be altered to make up for the need to compare teams from different conferences, a more accurate comparison than the regular season. The public gauge will be calculated the same way. All forecast and gauges are calculated BEFORE lines are released and these numbers are not adjusted based on market activity, as opposed to a Contrarian Fund forecast which would be adjusted as the market takes action.
                                  Comment
                                  • EDDIE MONEY LINE
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-24-10
                                    • 6298

                                    #18
                                    took Pitt +3
                                    Comment
                                    • johnnyvegas13
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 05-21-15
                                      • 27897

                                      #19
                                      I took pitt ml

                                      letssgoooo
                                      Comment
                                      • Renegades
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 10-12-11
                                        • 5290

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by stevenash
                                        On it.
                                        I wish I got 129, I got 129.5
                                        Now it's 130

                                        Game line flat lining at 2
                                        Down to 127.5 at fanduel
                                        Comment
                                        • KVB
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 05-29-14
                                          • 74817

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by EDDIE MONEY LINE
                                          took Pitt +3
                                          Good number.

                                          Theres is pressure here on the favorite and it's pushing that line back to 2.5 and maybe we see 3.

                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                          ...My sources indicate that both money and tickets are on BC...
                                          The books are blinking late here. They could be trying to capitalize on late steam, furthering their position on Pitt.

                                          Often, when we see the line hold, then move late, what we are seeing is the market taking action happily on, in this case, BC, then as it comes close to game time the move a half point or point, and bettors jump on that "steam" even further giving the books a position on Pitt.

                                          While the Forecasts above lean BC, if you tend to play with and not against the bookmaker's strategy, then the Pitt play is for you.

                                          Would be interesting to see if any moves to 2.5 actually get pushed back to 2 right before game time.
                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
                                            I took pitt ml

                                            letssgoooo

                                            I love it Johnny, a good shot today.

                                            Comment
                                            • stevenash
                                              Moderator
                                              • 01-17-11
                                              • 65599

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                              I love it Johnny, a good shot today.

                                              Yeah, Pitt +2 (could not get better) and a small nibble on the over.

                                              Get it Johnny
                                              Thanks for your take on things KVB.

                                              Comment
                                              • Chi_archie
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 07-22-08
                                                • 63172

                                                #24
                                                any live bet thoughts?

                                                checked in for a few mins here and there..

                                                BC really seems to be emotionally reved up for this game and wants to win.
                                                Comment
                                                • Renegades
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 10-12-11
                                                  • 5290

                                                  #25
                                                  Pitt may have the worst offense in cbb
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EDDIE MONEY LINE
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-24-10
                                                    • 6298

                                                    #26
                                                    terrible start, soon after I submitted wager I had flashbacks of this happening to me every years and it seems to always involve these 2 teams or sometimes throw Miami in there as well. Whichever team I pick gets beat by 20. oof
                                                    Comment
                                                    • KVB
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                      • 74817

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                      any live bet thoughts?

                                                      checked in for a few mins here and there..

                                                      BC really seems to be emotionally reved up for this game and wants to win.
                                                      Got tied up.

                                                      Had Pitt taken a good early lead, enough to move the numbers, I would have taken BC. But I don't think we ever got that opportunity.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stake1
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-19-18
                                                        • 18116

                                                        #28
                                                        "Bc Boat Race"
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stake1
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-19-18
                                                          • 18116

                                                          #29
                                                          If Pitt does not fire capel? he should go out and buy as many lottery tickets he is able to
                                                          Comment
                                                          • stake1
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-19-18
                                                            • 18116

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                            any live bet thoughts?

                                                            checked in for a few mins here and there..

                                                            BC really seems to be emotionally reved up for this game and wants to win.
                                                            I already had Bc -2 for the game, went live at -11' when I watched the way the second half started, and decided sure looked like the fourth straight blowout loss for Pitt
                                                            players not focused, undisciplined, playing for themselves vs the team. basically the story of the capel pitt years
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pimike
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 03-23-08
                                                              • 37140

                                                              #31
                                                              Yea Pitt sucks and didn’t care to play!



                                                              Comment
                                                              • big joe 1212
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 06-01-08
                                                                • 19380

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Mackballs
                                                                Over
                                                                Mackballs, you are the worst March handicapper that I have ever seen
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MinnesotaFats
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-18-10
                                                                  • 14758

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by KVB
                                                                  Here's what I have for market information Nasher.

                                                                  The stacking percentages forecast show BC winning by 7 points, 72-65, and the non-predictive public gauge shows BC winning 66-63.

                                                                  This line has moved towards both forecast, although only about a half point since the open. The public gauge is much closer to the spread and Total offered while the stacking forecast indicates an OVER.

                                                                  My sources indicate that both money and tickets are on BC and while the tickets are on the OVER, the money is a bit more split as this Total has even dropped a bit.

                                                                  Note that the market is failry tight on the spread and I have identified what we consider sharp trades on BC -1.5 and also on Pitt +2.5.

                                                                  Our lean here is with the stacking percentages forecast but there is risk as it appears the book is will to take a small position on Pitt.

                                                                  Disclosures...

                                                                  The stacking percentages forecast is 55-43-2 against the opening spread and 53-46-1 against the close over the last 100 plays. Over the last 250 plays, the stacking forecast is 133-107-10 against the opening spread and 130-112-8 over the close.

                                                                  When it comes to the Total, the stackng forecast is not as strong. Over the last 100 plays it is 48-47-5 against the open and 46-48-6 against the closing line. Over the last 250 plays the stacking forecast is 122-120-8 against the opening Total and 120-119-11 against the closing Total.

                                                                  The performance against is spread is relatively strong, the Total not so much. Evidence indicates the stacking Forecast still maintains the small edge against both the spread and Total long term.

                                                                  Once we hit the actual march madness, the NCAA tourney, the stacking forecast will be altered to make up for the need to compare teams from different conferences, a more accurate comparison than the regular season. The public gauge will be calculated the same way. All forecast and gauges are calculated BEFORE lines are released and these numbers are not adjusted based on market activity, as opposed to a Contrarian Fund forecast which would be adjusted as the market takes action.
                                                                  Where can we pull this info?
                                                                  Comment
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