Can you be a winning gambler if you're able to consistently beat the closing lines?

[EGrecu]

Is that the biggest difference between someone who can win at 50% vs someone who wins at 55-60%? If you can consistently pick lines before they move 2-3 points

[JacketFan81]

If you consistently beat the closing line, you 100% are a winning gambler

[EGrecu]

If you consistently beat the closing line, you 100% are a winning gambler

I see websites posting early lines but my books never post them early enough


I wanted to bet on Boston -7.5 and the line moved to 9.5 by time I got to it (finished at 10.5) vs detroit

[jjgold]

Most no

Bankroll too small
And cannot substain long losing streaks

[gauchojake]

Pound the winners

[d2bets]

Is that the biggest difference between someone who can win at 50% vs someone who wins at 55-60%? If you can consistently pick lines before they move 2-3 points

Yes. Fact.

It's that 1 in 20 games where the extra point(s) make the difference that turns a loser into a winner. Difference between 10-10 (50% lose juice) and 11-9 (55% you overcome juice and win). Now play that out over and over play after play day after day week after week and it makes all the difference. People need to understand that it's that 1 game in 20 that turns a 50% player into a 55% player. One is a loser and the other is a winner. Gamblers think too short-term.

[d2bets]

Someone who bets a lot of games (let's say basketball) throughout the year should keep track of how many they push or lose by a point or a half point. Now go back and imagine you got 1 point better each game. Now calculate the difference in record/profit. It's everything.

[BuckyOne]

My answer is yes but I also do not think anybody is that good. BW type people that were line manipulators could create value. They suckered line chasers into fattening up the point spread for them and then they middled it. But, I do not know how you could get in on the ground floor unless you were the originator.

If you believe in playing this method try somebody like Right Angle Sports. Biggest difficulty is getting the original number.

But, grade the closing line with one point in your favor on the steam side and see the difference in results.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you consistently beat the closing line, you 100% are a winning gambler

Greek, see what Jacket says. Pretty hard to NOT beat -110 when you start off one pt ahead of the closing line. Depends on the sport.

I think your post #3 is not well thought out. It's about staying ahead of the game.

If you're doing this seriously, have to have multiple outs. And be prepared to get down quickly.

[Smokey McPot]

If you consistently beat the closing line, you 100% are a winning gambler

Yep, this is accurate.

Worked at a book for years, no matter how much you won you probably weren’t limited but if you were on the right side of the move all of the time you certainly might be.

[MinnesotaFats]

Only way to make $$ is staggered wagering and money mgmt

[EGrecu]

I was looking to bet on Miami and Phoenix today


Line was -5.5 and -6.5...now both have been pushed up 1 point already. Will likely finish at 7 and 8 each

[d2bets]

Only way to make $$ is staggered wagering and money mgmt

Staggered wagering?

[coolguy73739]

Line movement is an ILLUSION.
BTCL is an ILLUSION created to give you a fake sense of WINNING by Bookmakers.
Power Ratings is an ILLUSION.
Sports Betting on Major leagues Like NFL, NBA is a losing preposition in the long run.. All random, all unpredictable.. Period..
Smaller and not so much known leagues like CBB, you still got some scope based on your strong System, else you will fail there too in the long run.
Deep inside we all know that nothing works but still it's so tough to convince our hard headed mind to give up on this shit completely and we keep outsmarting others and continue living in the FAKE WORLD OF BEING A WINNER.
Sorry for my harsh words but this is MY CONCLUSION based on my 10 years of betting experience. Don't trust me and I know you won't.. GL..!!..

[d2bets]

Line movement is an ILLUSION.
BTCL is an ILLUSION created to give you a fake sense of WINNING by Bookmakers.
Power Ratings is an ILLUSION.
Sports Betting on Major leagues Like NFL, NBA is a losing preposition in the long run.. All random, all unpredictable.. Period..
Smaller and not so much known leagues like CBB, you still got some scope based on your strong System, else you will fail there too in the long run.
Deep inside we all know that nothing works but still it's so tough to convince our hard headed mind to give up on this shit completely and we keep outsmarting others and continue living in the FAKE WORLD OF BEING A WINNER.
Sorry for my harsh words but this is MY CONCLUSION based on my 10 years of betting experience. Don't trust me and I know you won't.. GL..!!..

And I have over 20 years of experience and results that says that you are dead wrong. I am way beyond the long-run to know that you are wrong. Not even debatable. You don't know because you haven't done it and because you don't want it to be so. I win consistently with zero handicapping. How do you suppose I do that?

[TommieGunshot]

Line movement is an ILLUSION.
BTCL is an ILLUSION created to give you a fake sense of WINNING by Bookmakers.
Power Ratings is an ILLUSION.
Sports Betting on Major leagues Like NFL, NBA is a losing preposition in the long run.. All random, all unpredictable.. Period..
Smaller and not so much known leagues like CBB, you still got some scope based on your strong System, else you will fail there too in the long run.
Deep inside we all know that nothing works but still it's so tough to convince our hard headed mind to give up on this shit completely and we keep outsmarting others and continue living in the FAKE WORLD OF BEING A WINNER.
Sorry for my harsh words but this is MY CONCLUSION based on my 10 years of betting experience. Don't trust me and I know you won't.. GL..!!..

I love this. The more people who believe this, the better it is for everyone.

[d2bets]

I love this. The more people who believe this, the better it is for everyone.

It's called "loser's rationalization" -- I can't win so I don't believe that anyone possibly can. Makes him feel better.

[CanuckG]

Yes coolguy is what we call an -ev gambler

[jjgold]

Cool guy correct

No real winners bet nfl, nba sides

[Fred The Hammer]

Is that the biggest difference between someone who can win at 50% vs someone who wins at 55-60%? If you can consistently pick lines before they move 2-3 points

1. Bankroll management

2. Bankroll management

3. Volume of bets (can't play every hand in poker and can't bet every game on TV)

[dante1]

ton of wishful thinking in this thread. how many players on this forum have consistently posted winners? it is really easy to make claims and have great ideas concerning wagering and that is perfectly fine but I am from "Missouri" you gotta show me. you know why? because I too booked for over two decades and nobody, virtually nobody wins in the long run.


but, I may be wrong but you need to prove it to me. I don't mean a month or two I mean at least a year. and after a lifetime of wagering I doubt very much if the long term winners will exceed 1%. and if you play a ton of games every day I guarantee you, you will be a big time loser before they measure you into your final bet.]


when a player handed me a slip with 10 pieces or 20 pieces I knew before the games even finished--he lost.

[dante1]

you have some time for a paper experiment? tell you what select 10 games a day, and select 3 games those same days. do that for two months or even one season on any sport. do the math and find what you find. I know what that will be.

[d2bets]

you have some time for a paper experiment? tell you what select 10 games a day, and select 3 games those same days. do that for two months or even one season on any sport. do the math and find what you find. I know what that will be.

Can I make my picks just before tipoff/kickoff based on the opening line number?

[dante1]

Can I make my picks just before tipoff/kickoff based on the opening line number?

my friend you may do anything you please. and I am happy you are having some great results. and I wish you the same results for a long time. I really do, in fact I cheer for the player because I realize the amazing amount of bad crap that can and will happen. and I know the math.

notice I didn't claim 100% will lose but I am absolutely positive that the percentage of losers at the end of a lifetime of betting will be.a very huge percent

[chilidog]

ton of wishful thinking in this thread. how many players on this forum have consistently posted winners? it is really easy to make claims and have great ideas concerning wagering and that is perfectly fine but I am from "Missouri" you gotta show me. you know why? because I too booked for over two decades and nobody, virtually nobody wins in the long run.
but, I may be wrong but you need to prove it to me. I don't mean a month or two I mean at least a year. and after a lifetime of wagering I doubt very much if the long term winners will exceed 1%. and if you play a ton of games every day I guarantee you, you will be a big time loser before they measure you into your final bet.]
when a player handed me a slip with 10 pieces or 20 pieces I knew before the games even finished--he lost.

nobody's selling anything. just because you and others can't do it doesn't mean jackshit. it just means you're not good enough.

if i can buy something for $105 and sell it for $110, i will make money guaranteed. sure, i may sell some items at a loss, but i will absolutely be profitable at the end of every month. without a doubt.

d2 figured it out. i've figured it out. keep trying, maybe you'll get there. or keep saying it can't be done cuz you can't figure it out.

[jjgold]

Profit margin winners very small

[Mr0ctober]

A lot of good stuff and some non sense in here.


IMO:
1) MONEY MANAGEMENT is the most key out of anything in terms of a winning/losing bettor.

2) GET THE BEST OF THE NUMBER Beating the closing line is a good indicator of winning plays over a long term sample size! Again no one will beat the close all the time - but if you are beating it more often than not then you have a great opportunity to win long term.

3) HAVE MULTIPLE OUTS and LINE SHOP (goes along with getting the best number)

4) DEALING WITH LOSING BETS/Streaks! goes along with money management but the ability to not chase, not overbetting single games or over betting in terms of volume... all play a major part in winning or losing long term!

5) Not constantly trying to beat high hold markets or several leg parlays. Its okay to throw together a occasional fun parlay (for some lower money). or throw some money into some futures markets but over betting into these high hold markets consistently can really cost you long term. It is so fun hitting the longshot future or the big time parlay and its so fun to show your friends and the world but more often than not this stuff will end up costing you long term. That being said there are people that are an exception to the rule and can pick off great numbers in futures and awards markets and win long term. But I am more speaking to the guys that have 20 of the 64 teams to win the College Basketball title. etc

This stuff all goes hand in hand but if you can master those few elements you will be in pretty good shape to win long term (and one NFL season IS NOT longterm) or at worst break even.

[d2bets]

my friend you may do anything you please. and I am happy you are having some great results. and I wish you the same results for a long time. I really do, in fact I cheer for the player because I realize the amazing amount of bad crap that can and will happen. and I know the math.

notice I didn't claim 100% will lose but I am absolutely positive that the percentage of losers at the end of a lifetime of betting will be.a very huge percent

People bring the bad crap upon themselves because they either don't understand the math or they lack the discipline to apply it. Good thing too, because if everybody understood it and had discipline, then it would self-correct to hell.

[Regul8er]

Beating the line, coupled with having multiple books is everything. As long you can be consistent with unit sizes and managing your roll, Itll turn really bad months into just bad months, bad months into average months, average months into small profitable months, and profitable months into big months.

[carolinacapper]

Beating closing line is a way to reduce the vig. You absolutely will win long term. Money management is key to outlast variance. Derivatives are often a good way to find good numbers. 1Q, props, 2H lines can be good values. Need as many out as possible. Always be looking for bonuses. I used to think that handicapping teams/players, looking at matchups, knowing all the stats, etc would make me a winner. I was wrong, I’m not that good at picking winners. It’s all about the numbers for me.

[Mr0ctober]

Great stuff regul8tor and Carolina capper!

[chilidog]

some of y'all just don't understand basic math at all

betting a -105 line means you have to win 51.2% of your bets to break even. betting at -110, you gotta hit 52.4% to break even

it's math 101

Let's say you're betting Rams -4. Avg ML for that should be about -195 (if getting -105 juice) based on past 3 years worth of data. If you make the bet at -110 odds, your ML should be around -210.

Which is better? Paying $195 for something, or paying $210 for it?

So now we look at one of the sharpest books out there and see what they're charging for it on the ML. Pinny will sell it to you for $200

You'll make money all day long buying something for cheaper than Pinny is selling it for

You either get this, or you don't

Make money, or keep on losing

[Waterstpub87]

Beating closing line is a way to reduce the vig. You absolutely will win long term. Money management is key to outlast variance. Derivatives are often a good way to find good numbers. 1Q, props, 2H lines can be good values. Need as many out as possible. Always be looking for bonuses. I used to think that handicapping teams/players, looking at matchups, knowing all the stats, etc would make me a winner. I was wrong, I’m not that good at picking winners. It’s all about the numbers for me.

It tough. I'm sure there are people out there who can look at information and make a good bet.

I'm lost without actually calculating the games in python or spreadsheets. Beat the close enough to win, but it's rough.

I envy the D2bets and chilis of the world. The technical traders to my value investing.

[dante1]

People bring the bad crap upon themselves because they either don't understand the math or they lack the discipline to apply it. Good thing too, because if everybody understood it and had discipline, then it would self-correct to hell.

lol

[pavyracer]

Hit around 60% of your plays and you will win long term. If you want to save money bet air for one or two years until you finally hit 60%. Then you can bet with cash.