Serious question - does anybody actually win at sports betting at a 55-60+% clip??

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  • unclebuzz1
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-23-09
    • 565

    #71
    Depends on your sample size.

    Can anyone hit 6 out of 10? ... yes

    Can anyone hit 60 out of 100? ... possibly

    Can anyone hit 600 out of 1,000? ... no

    It gravitates towards 50% with the more plays you make

    (This assumes -110 odds)
    Comment
    • lonegambler23
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 06-22-16
      • 9760

      #72
      bear rising again
      Comment
      • eidolon
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-02-08
        • 9531

        #73
        Originally posted by kyhawk
        Interesting to see that he hits 58% every week, 58% every month, and 58% year, and 58% lifetime.
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 37363

          #74
          Originally posted by eidolon
          Interesting to see that he hits 58% every week, 58% every month, and 58% year, and 58% lifetime.
          Haha. Some people used to like this book by Seidel:


          Cliff Notes. Guy wrote a book on How to Beat Coll Bask. All his picks were listed Ex Post Facto.

          IE, you took his word on the 72% winners. He scribbled his writeups and all was legit.

          Yeah. OK.
          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • blankoblanco
            SBR MVP
            • 11-18-11
            • 3496

            #75
            Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
            Haha. Some people used to like this book by Seidel:


            Cliff Notes. Guy wrote a book on How to Beat Coll Bask. All his picks were listed Ex Post Facto.

            IE, you took his word on the 72% winners. He scribbled his writeups and all was legit.

            Yeah. OK.
            That's why you need to always think critically and be skeptical of other people's motives, especially in the world of gambling. If this guy could reliably crush college basketball at a rate like that, why the hell would he waste his time on some niche book that takes months to write?

            The truth is if a self-proclaimed expert writes a book without solid proof of their expertise, they're almost always full of it
            Comment
            • gauchojake
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 09-17-10
              • 34113

              #76
              Grogu are you out of cash yet? Used car market tanking, 401k in the shitter, and Bitcoin DONKDOWN.
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65564

                #77
                Thom O. Rino esquire wins at a 98% clip.
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37363

                  #78
                  Originally posted by blankoblanco
                  That's why you need to always think critically and be skeptical of other people's motives, especially in the world of gambling. If this guy could reliably crush college basketball at a rate like that, why the hell would he waste his time on some niche book that takes months to write?

                  The truth is if a self-proclaimed expert writes a book without solid proof of their expertise, they're almost always full of it
                  Salud, blanco. Very true.

                  If someone is giving you the "hard-sell"...there's very likely a reason for it. Applies across the board. Virtually w/o fail.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • d2bets
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 08-10-05
                    • 39995

                    #79
                    Originally posted by stevenash
                    I followed Eckstein pretty regularly, I'm not a chalk bettor but will on occasion bet two chalks on a two team money line parlay.

                    Eckstein's ROI annually would be around 12%
                    Most brokers would tell you what? Anything over 8% is good.

                    Stock market's not my forte though, I just have a few REIT's.
                    If you ask me the market is 'funnier' than betting sports.
                    You seem to be confusing ROI with annual investment return. Two completely different animals. 12% ROI on a $100,000 bankroll doesn't mean you won $12,000 on the year. Hell to the no. ROI means percentage won per wager. You can have a $100,000 bankroll that you roll over 100's of times through the year on tens of thousands of wagers. So that $100,000 might lead to $5,000,000 wagers. $5 million wagered at 12% ROI is $600,000. Expressed as investment return that's a 600% return.

                    That said, 12% ROI is generally not sustainable. Look for more like 5%.
                    Comment
                    • lakerboy
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-02-09
                      • 94379

                      #80
                      I hit 28% but I win
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #81
                        nobody wins Son other than a few bonus pros , model guys and some pro abrbing which is rare now

                        nobody beats -110 mathematically impossible long term

                        Most could not beat NFL with even money both sides on spreads
                        Comment
                        • gauchojake
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 09-17-10
                          • 34113

                          #82
                          we don't play-110
                          Comment
                          • stevenash
                            Moderator
                            • 01-17-11
                            • 65564

                            #83
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            nobody wins Son other than a few bonus pros , model guys and some pro abrbing which is rare now

                            nobody beats -110 mathematically impossible long term

                            Most could not beat NFL with even money both sides on spreads
                            Fishhead wins.
                            Comment
                            • lakerboy
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-02-09
                              • 94379

                              #84
                              Originally posted by jjgold
                              nobody wins Son other than a few bonus pros , model guys and some pro abrbing which is rare now

                              nobody beats -110 mathematically impossible long term

                              Most could not beat NFL with even money both sides on spreads
                              NFL is the only league you can beat though out of the pro leagues.

                              I don't care what anyone says.
                              NBA too long and drawn out like NHL.
                              Baseball I guess you can win but ONLY if you are a pro. I have other things to do in the summer.
                              College football is definitely a beatable product and the guys that beat NCAA college basketball play for the first two weeks only.

                              I'm talking about straight up spread betting.
                              Comment
                              • Machba
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 01-08-19
                                • 6772

                                #85
                                Originally posted by lakerboy
                                NFL is the only league you can beat though out of the pro leagues.

                                I don't care what anyone says.
                                NBA too long and drawn out like NHL.
                                Baseball I guess you can win but ONLY if you are a pro. I have other things to do in the summer.
                                College football is definitely a beatable product and the guys that beat NCAA college basketball play for the first two weeks only.

                                I'm talking about straight up spread betting.
                                Mlb Nhl ML's Are best chances IMO
                                50% chance either you win or you lose!
                                Keep up the good cappin bro PPP
                                Comment
                                • gauchojake
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 09-17-10
                                  • 34113

                                  #86
                                  I had one year where I focused on NBA, watched hundreds of hours of games. I beat it and won a couple grand. What a waste of time.
                                  Comment
                                  • lakerboy
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 04-02-09
                                    • 94379

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by gauchojake
                                    I had one year where I focused on NBA, watched hundreds of hours of games. I beat it and won a couple grand. What a waste of time.
                                    You have to watch game tape from the 80s bro. Come on
                                    Comment
                                    • d2bets
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 08-10-05
                                      • 39995

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                                      NFL is the only league you can beat though out of the pro leagues.

                                      I don't care what anyone says.
                                      NBA too long and drawn out like NHL.
                                      Baseball I guess you can win but ONLY if you are a pro. I have other things to do in the summer.
                                      College football is definitely a beatable product and the guys that beat NCAA college basketball play for the first two weeks only.

                                      I'm talking about straight up spread betting.
                                      Say whaaaaaa
                                      Comment
                                      • d2bets
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 08-10-05
                                        • 39995

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by gauchojake
                                        I had one year where I focused on NBA, watched hundreds of hours of games. I beat it and won a couple grand. What a waste of time.
                                        It was a waste of time. Much better off spending hundred of hours watching the odds move.
                                        Comment
                                        • gauchojake
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 09-17-10
                                          • 34113

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by lakerboy
                                          You have to watch game tape from the 80s bro. Come on
                                          I would watch that no problem.
                                          Comment
                                          • gauchojake
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 09-17-10
                                            • 34113

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by d2bets
                                            It was a waste of time. Much better off spending hundred of hours watching the odds move.

                                            I did that too.
                                            Comment
                                            • lakerboy
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 04-02-09
                                              • 94379

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by d2bets
                                              Say whaaaaaa
                                              You know exactly what I'm talking about. They lines are off then.
                                              Comment
                                              • toddsclowns
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-19-13
                                                • 1578

                                                #93
                                                I need to find a book that pays solely on action points per month.
                                                Comment
                                                • gauchojake
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 09-17-10
                                                  • 34113

                                                  #94
                                                  Where is a cash flow positive bookie when you need one
                                                  Comment
                                                  • d2bets
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 08-10-05
                                                    • 39995

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                    You know exactly what I'm talking about. They lines are off then.
                                                    Yes, they are. But they are also off later. Profit to be made all season.
                                                    Comment
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