KVB's Intro To Sports Betting as a Business

[BeatTheJerk]

Congrats Diggy on the 6 figures !

[jjgold]

KVB????

Let’s post your financials

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

KVB????

Let’s post your financials

KVB just texted me: "tell him to post his facials, I'll post my financials."

Looks like your move, Baldy....

[KVB]

He won’t answer that & frankly it’s none of our damn business if he doesn’t want to share that for any specific reasons he may have. I’ve asked him a number of times in many different ways lol.

Did you ever see my reply to your last question? I think you might have missed it becaue I posted a play and ran and missed your question until later.

I'll have to find it. I remember you saying you would never ask again when I didn't answer right away.

[BeatTheJerk]

Did you ever see my reply to your last question? I think you might have missed it becaue I posted a play and ran and missed your question until later.

I'll have to find it. I remember you saying you would never ask again when I didn't answer right away.

Things can get lost in the Fly Me thread in a flash buddy.

[KVB]

Things can get lost in the Fly Me thread in a flash buddy.

Exactly.

[KVB]

The markets are liquid and friendly enough to clear 100k a year, but you aren't likely doing that in some major sport.

A lot of diversification makes it much more possible to get there. It doesn't just come to you, you have to go get it.

[d2bets]

The markets are liquid and friendly enough to clear 100k a year, but you aren't likely doing that in some major sport.

A lot of diversification makes it much more possible to get there. It doesn't just come to you, you have to go get it.

I beg to differ. Key is having a sizable and nimble bankroll, along with the knowledge and effort.

[Cougar Bait]

Good video KVB, helps to hear this stuff from time to time. Looking forward to the next one.

I also have 3 monitors, but 2 of them have fisting videos playing on repeat.

It can be distracting at times, I'll admit.

[KVB]

I beg to differ. Key is having a sizable and nimble bankroll, along with the knowledge and effort.

I'm addressing the majority crowd when I say that.

Just like when I've said that posters should keep their risk flat. I'm addressing the majority who don't calculate an edge to determine how to adjust that risk.

I don't want to send a budding sports bettor down an impossible path.

[d2bets]

I'm addressing the majority crowd when I say that.

Just like when I've said that posters should keep their risk flat. I'm addressing the majority who don't calculate an edge to determine how to adjust that risk.

I don't want to send a budding sports bettor down an impossible path.

I don't flat bet, mainly because my limit is set by the book(s) and how much I can get down (rarely as much as I want). Plus, with the sizable bankroll and nimbleness (word?), you can sell back to minimize risk when desired.

[slapshot]

it's suggested in the video to NOT recalculate the stake after each bet or each day....but to keep risking the same amount no matter the losing streak.

very dangerous suggestion based on my experience....the depth of a losing streak can go beyond imagination.....if you don't adjust how much you risk while being cold.....it will break your back....and bank.

making profit long term you must limit the losses during cold streaks....maximize winnings during hot streaks......pinnacle made no secret that lifetime winnings accounts are managed like this.

recalculate as often as possible...it's difficult to do it after each bet....but it should at least be done daily.

[d2bets]

it's suggested in the video to NOT recalculate the stake after each bet or each day....but to keep risking the same amount no matter the losing streak.

very dangerous suggestion based on my experience....the depth of a losing streak can go beyond imagination.....if you don't adjust how much you risk while being cold.....it will break your back....and bank.

making profit long term you must limit the losses during cold streaks....maximize winnings during hot streaks......pinnacle made no secret that lifetime winnings accounts are managed like this.

recalculate as often as possible...it's difficult to do it after each bet....but it should at least be done daily.

If you are truly rigorous, hot streaks and cold streaks is perception and variance.

[turbobets]

I agree slapshot. Never understood the, don't adjust your bet size after every wager crowd. Yeah maybe it's takes me a little longer to recover from a losing streak but I also lost less on the way down.

[unde0087]

Who is this KVB guy? Seems like a fraud. I wish I could call this guy and give him a piece of my mind. Guy cost me thousands with his graph and shit. I fell for it. Fuk him.

[StackinGreen]

Here is a basic summary of the world, made even more obvious recently like kovidism, and then we will get to sports betting and how it pertains to it: you'll see the problem unfolding as a type of paradox. You can easily see it if you read even just the posts in this thread, and you'll also see the paradox.

1) There are three groups of people in the world.
a) The small but significant group of people who are capable of critical thinking and can analyze, a people who seek truth in general in life and inquire how to assess risk and the world.
b) Those who could be part of group (a) but for emotional/family/distraction/passion reasons get short circuited out of what is required to be in group a. These are the sidetracked people who choose the irrational path even though they could be better, for various and complex reasons.
c) Those not capable of critical thinking, or frankly not that educable, which at this point in time (since the world population is very large) are most.

2) People of groups (b) and (c) are too distracted (b) and incapable (c) of anything but simpleton thinking, so they will not allow themselves to even understand, if they can, points brought up by group a. They think they are liars, showmen, hucksters, scammers, etc. Notice how that happened even in this thread, though not one thing KVB did was akin at all to what touts or scammers, late night advertisement guys, etc do.

Basically, because they don't have talent or discipline to win, they don't believe it's possible. The reason one can absolutely know this is true is because (in a talent game like sports, of course long term you aren't going to win cards or dice without counting/manipulating or really rare edges otherwise) one can know that he actually is a winner on paper, have the stats to prove it, the objective evidence to support it without a doubt, and yet other people will get distracted by a single loss, or two, or ten - and think, "He doesn't win."

They know that you can't win every game, but they hold others to some bizarre perfect record standard, or perhaps more commonly, only remember losses (emotional thinking/response) which clouds their judgment (they don't think mathematically) of someone's true status, his record according to the numbers, which is the reality. Also, even harder for those who lack critical thinking, they have no idea how common streaks are, good and bad, on pure probability.

Ok, enough for now. Those that know what I am talking about will know, the others will likely chime in and claim falsehoods like they did to KVB earlier in the thread.

[Tanko]

Stackin, you are wise beyond compare, especially for this crowd.

[jjgold]

KVB the graph guy

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

KVB the graph guy

And you're the gloryhole guy... forums are all bout yin & yang symmetry.

[jjgold]

KVB lives life off charts and I mean everything

The kid a strange cat

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

KVB lives life off charts and I mean everything

The kid a strange cat

You had a chart tracking your Aunt's monthly ovulation. Better to be a strange cat than a strange jackass.

[jjgold]

KVB we are looking for a new video

[BeatTheJerk]

KVB the graph guy

Jjgold the small dick/brain guy.

[jjgold]

Jerky the broke guy

[BeatTheJerk]

Jerky the broke guy

At least I never said I had a lot of money. I take care myself & my son the best way I can. There’s some “posers” on this site that you vouch for that are probably not worth much more than me. It’s all a charade with you pal !

[Cougar Bait]

Patiently waiting for the next KVB video...

[veriableodds]

[JoeCool20]

Here is a basic summary of the world, made even more obvious recently like kovidism, and then we will get to sports betting and how it pertains to it: you'll see the problem unfolding as a type of paradox. You can easily see it if you read even just the posts in this thread, and you'll also see the paradox.

1) There are three groups of people in the world.
a) The small but significant group of people who are capable of critical thinking and can analyze, a people who seek truth in general in life and inquire how to assess risk and the world.
b) Those who could be part of group (a) but for emotional/family/distraction/passion reasons get short circuited out of what is required to be in group a. These are the sidetracked people who choose the irrational path even though they could be better, for various and complex reasons.
c) Those not capable of critical thinking, or frankly not that educable, which at this point in time (since the world population is very large) are most.

2) People of groups (b) and (c) are too distracted (b) and incapable (c) of anything but simpleton thinking, so they will not allow themselves to even understand, if they can, points brought up by group a. They think they are liars, showmen, hucksters, scammers, etc. Notice how that happened even in this thread, though not one thing KVB did was akin at all to what touts or scammers, late night advertisement guys, etc do.

Basically, because they don't have talent or discipline to win, they don't believe it's possible. The reason one can absolutely know this is true is because (in a talent game like sports, of course long term you aren't going to win cards or dice without counting/manipulating or really rare edges otherwise) one can know that he actually is a winner on paper, have the stats to prove it, the objective evidence to support it without a doubt, and yet other people will get distracted by a single loss, or two, or ten - and think, "He doesn't win."

They know that you can't win every game, but they hold others to some bizarre perfect record standard, or perhaps more commonly, only remember losses (emotional thinking/response) which clouds their judgment (they don't think mathematically) of someone's true status, his record according to the numbers, which is the reality. Also, even harder for those who lack critical thinking, they have no idea how common streaks are, good and bad, on pure probability.

Ok, enough for now. Those that know what I am talking about will know, the others will likely chime in and claim falsehoods like they did to KVB earlier in the thread.

LOL Yeah I commend the KVB guy for spending/wasting that much time on a gambling video. He sure seems sincere!
But when you are trying to make a video giving "advice" or "tips" about something that 95% of people lose their ass at, then it is hard to take it seriously! Maybe the KVB guy is one of the few who is actually up a few dollars over his lifetime of gambling. But if it was me, and I was going to make a video, It would only be 5 seconds long and I'd say:

"If you want to make money gambling, then be the house/bookie and you will never have to work a day in your life!"
.LOL

[d2bets]

LOL Yeah I commend the KVB guy for spending/wasting that much time on a gambling video. He sure seems sincere!
But when you are trying to make a video giving "advice" or "tips" about something that 95% of people lose their ass at, then it is hard to take it seriously! Maybe the KVB guy is one of the few who is actually up a few dollars over his lifetime of gambling. But if it was me, and I was going to make a video, It would only be 5 seconds long and I'd say:

"If you want to make money gambling, then be the house/bookie and you will never have to work a day in your life!"
.LOL

How to say you've lost and don't know how to won without saying you've lost and don't know how to win

[RudyRuetigger]

Welcome to my office, SBR...

might be this guy when younger

[RudyRuetigger]

How to say you've lost and don't know how to won without saying you've lost and don't know how to win

relax, we all dont cheat at sbrpoker like you and your brother

[Tanko]

KVB,
A few questions about a small portion of your video. Thanks for posting it. It generated some additional avenues to take in improving my game.

Your 2018-19 NCAAF Totals fund data showed:

• Win% 54.4%
• Vs Close 72.12%
• A 18% delta
• You beat close by 0.58 pts avg

2019-20 NCAAF Totals fund showed:

• Win% 39.6%
• Vs Close 55.3%
• A 16% delta
• You beat close by 0.12 pts avg

There are fairly consistent deltas on the data sets (~17%). This consistency seems strange when you compare both win% and in the delta in points vs close (0.58 vs 0.12) for good years vs bad. Any thoughts why this might be the case?

Would this be expected in subsequent years, assuming no significant model modifications?

[Tanko]

Also,

You presented the NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund 2018-current:

• Win% 57%
• Vs Close 61%
• ~4% delta

But evaluating the data by year w/no ties (similar to the Totals data) it looks like this:

	Win%	Vs Close	Delta
2018	63.4%	73.5%	10.1%
2019	53.6%	67.7%	14.1%
2020	57.9%	77.6%	19.7%
2021	50.0%	80.0%	30.0%

If you toss out 2021 data which is close the 3 Stdev away from the mean, which almost makes is "exceptional" in nature and thus might be tossed out, the data looks like:

	Win%	Vs Close	Delta
2018	63.4%	73.5%	10.1%
2019	53.6%	67.7%	14.1%
2020	57.9%	77.6%	19.7%

The avg delta is 15% (very similar to the NCAAF Totals delta).

Now, I realize we are working with a limited data set so some statistics may be a little off but, it is still very consistent with the 17% on the Total Fund.

My model predictor for NCAAF selections has very similar results.

• Win% 57%
• Vs Close 73%
• 16% delta
• I'm beating the close by 0.955 pts

Now there is no way in hell we are using similar models so this puzzles the hell out of me (maybe a little OCD kicking in).

Thoughts? Just an anomaly? Too limited of data sets?

Also, since I'm killing it against the close (pts wise), I need to gain a better understanding of why I'm only at 57 win%.

[Tanko]

The "so what" about my two previous posts, is that if the delta being measured changes significantly, it may provide an indication that betting market conditions are moving long-term and we need to make adjustments. I track this delta (win % vs Close) to watch for issues.

What is interesting is that someone else, with completely different models on NCAAF is seeing similar deltas. Is it something related to college football or is it just a coincidence?

[JoeCool20]

The "so what" about my two previous posts, is that if the delta being measured changes significantly, it may provide an indication that betting market conditions are moving long-term and we need to make adjustments. I track this delta (win % vs Close) to watch for issues.

What is interesting is that someone else, with completely different models on NCAAF is seeing similar deltas. Is it something related to college football or is it just a coincidence?

How in the hell do you (and KVB) keep picking games that beat the closing price? That is incredible in itself!