Math guy please tell me how likely this is, massive loss

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-17-21, 01:33 AM

First off, I'm not one to preach. Everybody goes thru swings, so I'm not going to go there.

Answer to your question: 22k down on $400 Avg bet is about 55 units. Your swing was about 58 units. That's really not all that Unlikely. Blackjack is a game with natural variance. Your swing doesn't strike me as outlandish.

Double-exposure blackjack is really not a good investment. Double Expos normally implies that you suck out the Naturals and that those pay out at 1:1 and not 1.5:1.

That's maybe the big re-coup on Standard Blackjack and what makes the game (possibly) beatable. The knowledge of the dealer's two upcards normally doesn't make up for all the extra Natural payouts you would have made at 1.5:1.

Would have to hear a bit more about the rules in play. Single deck game? The Stratosphere used to offer Double Expos blackjack with dealer playing ALL THE WAY THRU THE SHOE.

IE, when dealer ran out of cards, he'd re-shuffle. I think that game has long since disappeared. It was too ez to track the deck and play end-game strategy.

Long story short, Double Expos BJ is a sucker's game. It seems like they're giving away the farm. But they're actually printing $$.

**asiagambler** · 10-17-21, 01:55 AM

Well how did you get up to 25k in the first place ?

You are playing a negative expectation game

On a long enough timeline you will eventually end up at zero

It can take a while but it can also happen quickly in an hour or two

**cincinnatikid513** · 10-17-21, 02:09 AM

edit

**cincinnatikid513** · 10-17-21, 02:25 AM

good lucks

**mjsuax13** · 10-17-21, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

Double exposure blackjack. $500 max bet.

How likely is it go from $25,000 to $1,300 in about an hour maybe 2? Betting avg of $400, 1 hand.

Oh yeah and this is my last post ever on this site. Been here since 2010. Ive never messed up this much money in my life. I had $40,000 a few nights ago. Ive messed up 5k and even 10k several times. But never this. Never again will i deposit anywhere using any method that requires me to wait 7 days before i can request a payout. I cant control myself. Last night I never went to sleep had 30k got down to 8 and all the way back to 22k playing live baccarat. Won and lost some sports. Got back to 29k a few hours ago and did some shit down to 25k and lost 24 as i mentioned in the top of this post.

I only had a few more days to go. I would have gotten myself out of a lot of trouble. I dont even know what to say.

Woj… brother- what the fukkkk man?! Why?

**JayLA** · 10-17-21, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

Woj… brother- what the fukkkk man?! Why?

I thought the same but i didn't want to assume

Woj...tell us it ain't Tru bud.

**JayLA** · 10-17-21, 02:35 AM

Fk, it sounds True. Well woj, you've inspired me to cash the fk out and take a break...in your name bud, honestly. Books don't deserve our money man. Shit. I feel for you bud, i mean that. Take care bud, hopefully math guys can give you the figure you want for your peace of mind - that's priceless

**mtofell** · 10-17-21, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

How likely is it go from $25,000 to $1,300 in about an hour maybe 2? Betting avg of $400, 1 hand.

In a "fair" game of BJ with standard decks and rules? Unlikely but not impossible. Lot's of assumptions though. Are you playing perfect basic strategy? If so, that should put the odds around 51% house >> 49% you, but there is some variation depending on rules.

Playing an online casino with unknown rules and regulations? Anyone's guess but, unfortunately not surprising that things would be skewed towards the house - likely significantly.

**OVAKUL** · 10-17-21, 03:20 AM

Your life is in danger. Leave what you have now, give your attention to this man and get back - if you want to - a year later:

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**OVAKUL** · 10-17-21, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Well how did you get up to 25k in the first place ?

a casino run...

Ideas on discipline while waiting a week to cashout - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3677310-ideas-discipline-while-waiting-week-cashout-p1.html

The SBR Lobby: Sports Talk, Gambling and Bettors Chat

**mjsuax13** · 10-17-21, 03:34 AM

This is almost unbelievable

**juicername** · 10-17-21, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

Double exposure blackjack. $500 max bet.

How likely is it go from $25,000 to $1,300 in about an hour maybe 2? Betting avg of $400, 1 hand.

Oh yeah and this is my last post ever on this site. Been here since 2010. Ive never messed up this much money in my life. I had $40,000 a few nights ago. Ive messed up 5k and even 10k several times. But never this. Never again will i deposit anywhere using any method that requires me to wait 7 days before i can request a payout. I cant control myself. Last night I never went to sleep had 30k got down to 8 and all the way back to 22k playing live baccarat. Won and lost some sports. Got back to 29k a few hours ago and did some shit down to 25k and lost 24 as i mentioned in the top of this post.

I only had a few more days to go. I would have gotten myself out of a lot of trouble. I dont even know what to say.

How lucky mustn't you have been to run it up to 40k though?

**GunShard** · 10-17-21, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by ThaWoj

Double exposure blackjack. $500 max bet.

How likely is it go from $25,000 to $1,300 in about an hour maybe 2? Betting avg of $400, 1 hand.

Oh yeah and this is my last post ever on this site. Been here since 2010. Ive never messed up this much money in my life. I had $40,000 a few nights ago. Ive messed up 5k and even 10k several times. But never this. Never again will i deposit anywhere using any method that requires me to wait 7 days before i can request a payout. I cant control myself. Last night I never went to sleep had 30k got down to 8 and all the way back to 22k playing live baccarat. Won and lost some sports. Got back to 29k a few hours ago and did some shit down to 25k and lost 24 as i mentioned in the top of this post.

I only had a few more days to go. I would have gotten myself out of a lot of trouble. I dont even know what to say.

Did you use this Blackjack strategy? If not then there's your problem.

**mjsuax13** · 10-17-21, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by juicername

How lucky mustn't you have been to run it up to 40k though?

I am speechless man. I should go to bed but what the penetrate was this guy doing? Guy needs to get some treatment. No judgement because we are all fukkkkked up but damn man. How? Why?

**juicername** · 10-17-21, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

I am speechless man. I should go to bed but what the penetrate was this guy doing? Guy needs to get some treatment. No judgement because we are all fukkkkked up but damn man. How? Why?

Oh I feel for him, but he can't really complain about bad luck when he went on a massive heater to get to the peak number in the first place. Sounds like he played a ton of hands, so statistically, he is where he should expect to be.

Even playing perfect by the BJ chart, you have an expected value of -0.5% = betting $400/hand you have an EV of -$2/hand.

Play stupid games, win stupid prices = play casino games, lose money.

**WireWire** · 10-17-21, 04:37 AM

Ya man we have all been there at some point or another maybe not the same $ amounts, boredom and the thought of turning that 40k into possibly 80-100k with a few clicks all while siting at your house is tough, And I'm sure once you got down to a certain point from the 40k in your mind told you I'm either going broke or getting it back. Id advise you to just stop for awhile man, nothing you can do know will fulfill you at this point. Try to get into working out or riding a bike it will get your mind off it plus will benefit you health wise and possibly get some of those endorphins going in something other than gambling. All the best man.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-17-21, 09:34 AM

You guys missed one key point in his post:

*He was playing DOUBLE EXPOSURE blackjack.

That's a different game. You need to know your strategy to even attempt that game:

Double Exposure - Wizard of Odds

https://wizardofodds.com/games/double-exposure/

Double Exposure is a blackjack variant in which the dealer exposes both cards, and over here you can read all the rules and check the suggested strategies.

**mjsuax13** · 10-17-21, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

You guys missed one key point in his post:

*He was playing DOUBLE EXPOSURE blackjack.

That's a different game. You need to know your strategy to even attempt that game:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/double-exposure/

Quite honestly, no clue what that is but I also don’t play casino games whatsoever. Casino games, slots, etc… just looks like a massive beating waiting to happen.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-17-21, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

Quite honestly, no clue what that is but I also don’t play casino games whatsoever. Casino games, slots, etc… just looks like a massive beating waiting to happen.

Yes, MJ. It would be grouped into what you call "carnival games."

Effectively, u get to see BOTH dealer cards. But the takeaway is that you only get Even $$ on Natural 21.

Most people think it's too good to be true. That's because IT IS.

**funnyb25** · 10-17-21, 10:57 AM

Guy acting like he was playing smart and disciplined for years to run up a big balance and pissed it all away in an hour (or 2).

You were lucky to even win anything at all playing that shit, and it just evened back out to where you should have been to begin with.

Nothing to see here...

**GoBlue23** · 10-17-21, 11:00 AM

Sadly this guy is the epitome of the full blown dark degenerate that lives somewhere deep inside every one of us

Unfortunately for him suppressing it is much harder / impossible for some

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 10-17-21, 11:02 AM

If you're playing $500 a hand on online blackjack, it's time for you to self-ban yourself from all the online casinos.

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 10-17-21, 11:12 AM

How much is enough? I say it's never enough... Don't push your luck, it'll eventually run out.

OP don't feel so bad though, learn from it. At least you're not this guy.

**jjgold** · 10-17-21, 11:36 AM

Terrible story regardless

**KiDBaZkiT** · 10-17-21, 12:50 PM

What a GINORMOUS ASS HOLE! Told this fukking guy to go read a book and he goes and plays online bj? What a fukking DICKHEAD! The substantial amount of greed and ignorance is uncanny.

**TommieGunshot** · 10-17-21, 12:52 PM

Loss of $23,700 on $400 bets is a net loss of 59.5 bets. A lot depends on how many hands per hour. In a casino, playing heads up with a good dealer, can be up to 100 hands per hour. Online has to be more than that. The rules also have an effect, as well as if you were using correct strategy or not.

If it was 200 hands, with zero house edge, the probability would be around 0.0025% or about 1 in 40,000.

If it was 400 hands with a 1% house edge, the probability would be around 0.75%, or about 1 in 133. Would take less than 200 hours total for there to be a 50% chance of seeing a swing like that. How many hours of table games have you played in your life? If it is over a few hundred, it starts to become very unlikely you would never see a result like that.

(if someone gets a different result, I would love to hear what the got, as well as the method used).

**mjsuax13** · 10-17-21, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by KiDBaZkiT

What a GINORMOUS ASS HOLE! Told this fukking guy to go read a book and he goes and plays online bj? What a fukking DICKHEAD! The substantial amount of greed and ignorance is uncanny.

He didn’t take a single lick of any advice given. Instead- he went and buried himself even further.

**TheMetsSuck** · 10-17-21, 12:57 PM

Damn. Woj and dougytush really depressing me this weekend, brutal stuff.

**lakerboy** · 10-17-21, 01:32 PM

Unbelievable man. I can't begin to understand the problem you have.

**wombat** · 10-17-21, 01:49 PM

Woj, you should have disabled the casino as I advised in your previous post a few weeks ago. I went through the exact scenario. I worked up a $200 deposit all the way up to 36k at bookmaker through bets. Lost it all in one night with their live casino. I knew this was going to happen but didn't want to say anything because you were intent on keeping the casino enabled. They have since permanently disabled the casino for me. When you have a problem with gambling, there's no such thing as wandering into that live casino and playing just a hand or two. Once you lose that first $500, all rationale is thrown out the window because you will risk the entire 40K to chase that money. Sorry to hear about your loss, I feel you and been in that exact boat.

**Otters27** · 10-17-21, 01:59 PM

I'm sorry man

**wombat** · 10-17-21, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

You guys missed one key point in his post:

*He was playing DOUBLE EXPOSURE blackjack.

That's a different game. You need to know your strategy to even attempt that game:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/double-exposure/

Yep, he was playing double exposure which is totally different than your normal blackjack. You can't follow that basic strategy chart that everyone's pointing out. I'm curious to know if this was done thru their live casino or software.

**newton0038** · 10-17-21, 02:13 PM

Was cocaine involved??

**pavyracer** · 10-17-21, 02:39 PM

Take the $25,000 and buy Amazon or Google or Apple stock and see it grow to $100,000 in 4-5 years.

Why lose it all in 52 hands of Blackjack? Explain.