Some lines are so over the top, they get you thinking too much.

[Bluehorseshoe]

Why should Taijuan Walker be -195 today? Line should -150 at most.

It's so over the top, it gets you overthinking. lol

[pologq]

agreed.

i think there are good dogs in baseball daily. books still basing prices on last year in some cases.

[mjsuax13]

Why should Taijuan Walker be -195 today? Line should -150 at most.

It's so over the top, it gets you overthinking. lol

Truth. I love taking dogs on the other side of those lines. They fire lines out there like that to make you second guess yourself or make a bad play.

[unusialsusp5]

Why should Taijuan Walker be -195 today? Line should -150 at most.

It's so over the top, it gets you overthinking. lol

The streak theory. The Mets are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won 6 in a row and the books expect that to continue and need to discourage Met wagers today.

[Bluehorseshoe]

The streak theory. The Mets are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won 6 in a row and the books expect that to continue and need to discourage Met wagers today.

True.

Here's how you know if the Mets are winning. If the line starts dropping down. Pure trap move by the books.

[Emily_Haines]

The Twins should never be favored in any game and almost every day they are a big favorite.

[jjgold]

The books are rarely wrong on the number always remember that

[Emily_Haines]

The books are rarely wrong on the number always remember that

Not true

I'm up close to $300 betting MLB this year

[Bluehorseshoe]

Now I like the Mets. LOL

[KVB]

The books are rarely wrong on the number always remember that

It's not about right or wrong Gold. It's not even about getting equal action.

It's about getting enough action, or acceptable action...

I’ve often posted on how betting on sports is a three way street; and understanding all three ways will go a long way towards a few more winners and few less losers. There’s the odds maker, the bookmaker, and the player. I’ve discussed these relationships in the past, most notably, that it is player vs player (not player vs bookie) and the true costs of vigorish, and today I want to focus once again on the bookmaker’s perspective.

It is common knowledge that the book adjusts its line in hopes of maintaining equal action on both sides. This way the vigorish is an easy paycheck. But many of us know common sense is not always correct or the right sense. While smaller, independent neighborhood bookies might strive for equal action; this is not the case for larger pockets and big time houses.

Truthfully, it is almost mathematically impossible to get equal action on both sides, maybe close enough, but never equal. The esoteric know that sharp books or books reading the sharp players strive for certain amount of action on a game, not always equal action.

Let’s take a classic, simple example…for some a no brainer, for others perhaps enlightening.

For $11,000 worth of bets, equal action would have $5500 on each side. At -110 odds, the books pays one side $10,500 and keeps $500.

But this thread is about taking a position. One of the greatest bookmakers of all time has explained it differently.

So let’s say $6600 is bet on Seattle while $4400 comes in on San Francisco…all at -110. If Seattle wins, I keep $4400 and have to pay out $6000. I lost $1600.

If San Francisco wins, I keep $6600 and pay out $4000. I win $2600.

I, the book, basically have $1600 at risk to win $2600. On the same game, I have one team at about +163 while the public would have to risk $2860 for the same payout.

For sharp books (and those who can read their sharp players) with large pockets, worldwide, this is difference in risk vs. reward is how the sportsbooks can guarantee a long term profit in the marketplace they create.

Remember, bookmaking is not just a service, it’s a business. And while it is player vs. player from the bettor’s perspective, the bookmaker too exercises advantages over all his players.

Understanding the bookmaker’s perspective is sure to help you find a few more winners and can certainly take you off some losers...

[TheLock]

The Twins should never be favored in any game and almost every day they are a big favorite.

The Twins aren’t nearly as bad as the Royals and Tigers (Twins -8 Run Differential) and they’re 0-7 in extra inning games.

[hehfest]

The Orioles suck. The Mets don't. Harvey is pitching. How is the line off? What is there to overthink?

[Bluehorseshoe]

The Orioles suck. The Mets don't. Harvey is pitching. How is the line off? What is there to overthink?

Thanks for that post 1 1/2 hours into the game. lol

[Orbison]

Here's how you know if the Mets are winning. If the line starts dropping down. Pure trap move by the books.

what do you mean?

[pologq]

True.

Here's how you know if the Mets are winning. If the line starts dropping down. Pure trap move by the books.

if they drop to a more square price?

[Bluehorseshoe]

if they drop to a more square price?

It heads back to where it should be.

[hehfest]

Thanks for that post 1 1/2 hours into the game. lol

Anytime, but if you had live bet the Mets juiced a little at whatever run line was juiced.....you would've won! I think it was 3 or 4-0 when I posted that?

[Bluehorseshoe]

Anytime, but if you had live bet the Mets juiced a little at whatever run line was juiced.....you would've won! I think it was 3 or 4-0 when I posted that?

I did win. I bet the Mets.

[Unrivaled]

The books always know.

[jjgold]

The books always know.

most of the time

[KVB]

Bumping this thread.

We will revisit these concept later.

Time to raise the gambling IQ of SBR.