If good pitching wins (and it usually does) and I totally believe that, than it appears that we are heading for a Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 2020 World Series match up.
And pitching is the key factor in the betting lines if you break it all down.
Why do you think both the Dodgers and Rays are so heavily favored.
Look at the final four teams.
In order, just looking at the 2020 abbreviated season. the two best pitching staffs are the Rays and Dodgers.
All the metrics and analytics back this up,
Even if you throw out all the sabre numbers and rely on just on what you see the fact of the matter remains the same, that being the Rays and Dodgers are clearly the two best pitching teams standing.
And the Rays have the superior relief pitching of those four teams.
Anything is possible in baseball playoff history but I see Houston of having next to no chance in a first team to win four games championship series.
Astro pitching is not very good, and if you compare the two staffs side by side there's not one area where Houston has an edge.
Despite having the games best bullpen the Astros can't counter Glasnow and Snell either.
To further complicate matters the Rays line up is stacked with left handed hitting and the Astros only have two left handed pitchers on the roster that can offset those Rays bats (one starter, one reliever) and both are not good, mediocre but not good.
Yes Houston has hitting that just woke up and in the nick of time I might add but the Rays pitching is just so much better than Oakland pitching (who Houston just knocked off)
Going into the season I thought the Rays pitching was overrated (and it was to some degree) and the bats were under rated (and they were)
Now I do believe Atlanta whose pitching staff can not compare (on paper) to the Dodgers pitching, however they have two starters that have impressed (Fried and Ian Anderson) and have gone pretty much unnoticed to the casual fan. The problem with the Braves will have in their series with LA is they have to depend on a shaky third starter (Kyle Wright) and the LA rotation is three deep as Atlanta's is only two deep.
Nothing really wrong with the Brave bullpen, but it's not quite top to bottom what LA has out there.
I thing Atlanta can surprise LA with a 2 to 1 plus underdog upset as the Braves can hit, but that hitting won't mean anything if they can't get two good outings, and I mean very good outings from Anderson and Fried.
I want to go more in depth here but Mr. Clock on the wall says I need to get off the computer for a bit and do some business stuff.
OK, I looked at these two series from every angle, I can not and will not lay those ridiculous prices on the Dodgers and Rays to win their series, I can't see Houston pulling off any upsets so I can't go the the way in betting that series, Atlanta has a minor chance of beating LA (look at recent LA failures in the post season while you're at it) but for me to bet Atlanta I need a little better odds that +220 (I would like to see +300)
I can't even get even money on a two team parlay using the Rays and Dodgers to advance.
No value there either.
So I am not betting either series even though I think I know what the outcomes will be.
I am going to cherry pick a few games if and when I see value though.
I'll leave for now with one final thought.
Houston I think can win game 1 later as I can see McCullers matching Charlie Morton pitch for pitch, but the books are not giving me value there on the dog either, I want at least +150 in that game for me to bet Houston and I'm not seeing anything close to that.
More later
And pitching is the key factor in the betting lines if you break it all down.
Why do you think both the Dodgers and Rays are so heavily favored.
Look at the final four teams.
In order, just looking at the 2020 abbreviated season. the two best pitching staffs are the Rays and Dodgers.
All the metrics and analytics back this up,
Even if you throw out all the sabre numbers and rely on just on what you see the fact of the matter remains the same, that being the Rays and Dodgers are clearly the two best pitching teams standing.
And the Rays have the superior relief pitching of those four teams.
Anything is possible in baseball playoff history but I see Houston of having next to no chance in a first team to win four games championship series.
Astro pitching is not very good, and if you compare the two staffs side by side there's not one area where Houston has an edge.
Despite having the games best bullpen the Astros can't counter Glasnow and Snell either.
To further complicate matters the Rays line up is stacked with left handed hitting and the Astros only have two left handed pitchers on the roster that can offset those Rays bats (one starter, one reliever) and both are not good, mediocre but not good.
Yes Houston has hitting that just woke up and in the nick of time I might add but the Rays pitching is just so much better than Oakland pitching (who Houston just knocked off)
Going into the season I thought the Rays pitching was overrated (and it was to some degree) and the bats were under rated (and they were)
Now I do believe Atlanta whose pitching staff can not compare (on paper) to the Dodgers pitching, however they have two starters that have impressed (Fried and Ian Anderson) and have gone pretty much unnoticed to the casual fan. The problem with the Braves will have in their series with LA is they have to depend on a shaky third starter (Kyle Wright) and the LA rotation is three deep as Atlanta's is only two deep.
Nothing really wrong with the Brave bullpen, but it's not quite top to bottom what LA has out there.
I thing Atlanta can surprise LA with a 2 to 1 plus underdog upset as the Braves can hit, but that hitting won't mean anything if they can't get two good outings, and I mean very good outings from Anderson and Fried.
I want to go more in depth here but Mr. Clock on the wall says I need to get off the computer for a bit and do some business stuff.
OK, I looked at these two series from every angle, I can not and will not lay those ridiculous prices on the Dodgers and Rays to win their series, I can't see Houston pulling off any upsets so I can't go the the way in betting that series, Atlanta has a minor chance of beating LA (look at recent LA failures in the post season while you're at it) but for me to bet Atlanta I need a little better odds that +220 (I would like to see +300)
I can't even get even money on a two team parlay using the Rays and Dodgers to advance.
No value there either.
So I am not betting either series even though I think I know what the outcomes will be.
I am going to cherry pick a few games if and when I see value though.
I'll leave for now with one final thought.
Houston I think can win game 1 later as I can see McCullers matching Charlie Morton pitch for pitch, but the books are not giving me value there on the dog either, I want at least +150 in that game for me to bet Houston and I'm not seeing anything close to that.
More later
