Who wins TNF: Broncos vs Jets

**no1here** · 10-01-20, 08:01 AM

Denver ends up with 21-28 points, NYJ 17-20 points
final total between 38 & 48, been seeing bad teams playing having high scores, had 2 overs last week in pick 6
This game is different Denver w/o QB and Jets complete garbage. Final Denver 24-20 Jets.

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by pologq

that is how i feel. just seems weird when nothing has changed in 4 days for them.

"nothing has changed" ... alot has changed

**Chi_archie** · 10-01-20, 08:55 AM

**stevek173** · 10-01-20, 10:25 AM

Owow!

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 02:42 PM

#Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay (turf toe) is considered unlikely to play tonight against the #Jets, per source. Lindsay has practiced the past week, is on the trip and feeling better. But it may make sense to hold him out another week. They'll talk before making a final decision.

**BayArea888** · 10-01-20, 03:32 PM

I’ve heard it’s usually a good idea to fade teams crossing over the 0.

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by BayArea888

I’ve heard it’s usually a good idea to fade teams crossing over the 0.

So you're gonna lock in profit?

**KVB** · 10-01-20, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by rake922

Probably not. Are you going to watch on TV or perhaps not watch at all?

It will be on one of the screens, not sure how much I'll watch.

But it will be available for my consumption and entertainment, should I so desire.

What's the play?

My stacking percentages raw forecast does have the Jets with a small edge, scoring 20 or 21 points to Denvers 20 points. It's not a big edge as I have the probabilty of the Jets scoring 20 or 21 the same, and the forecast is in line with the Total.

Many may not realize it but over the last 20 years, in more than 5150 NFL games, the most common score for an NFL team is 20 points occurring nearly twice as often as the score of 21, which just cracks the top 10.

The Jets have one good thing going for them, they are not in Denver. Denver has one thing going against them, they are playing on a field that decimated the 49ers at MetLife.

When it comes to the spots neither team is in a good spot here, or both are. It really does depend on how you look at it. Someone will go 0-4 and that's rough.

When it comes to the markets I believe books opened the line with Denver favored, even with the hook of -2.5 in hopes of attracting some Jets money. The Jets have become widely regarded as the worst team in the NFL and my public gauge, my assessment of the public's assessment has Denver winning 21-17.

The public may have bailed on the Jets, as they don't mind a Denver win being by a field goal. As far as I can tell in the market, the drop was in the line was a more traditional reverse line movement situation which basically turned into steam on the Jets.

The Total is in a similar situation. We can even look at the public gauge of 38 points to see why. Tickets are more split here for sure, in line with the stacking forecast, and the only thing I can really say is that respectable money did get down on the OVER.

The move off of 40, and onto 41, then off of 41 must be respected and I know it wasn't the "public tickets" that made that line move. Understand that the most common Total score in the NFL over the last 20 years has been 41, and 40 is 6th on the list.

These are key numbers that we have gone off of and through with that Total. That takes money in the NFL.

Things are tight, I have no play here yet. I feel the forecasts live up to their numbers and that moving to 42 could be too much and I have other indicators showing that we don't get a Jets win until they play Miami. There, they will play them, get a bye, then play them again.

Then again, Joe Flacco could make an appearance for the Jets and lead them to victory. We do expect that to happen at least once this season and tonight he plays Denver, the team he was on last year.

Good Luck whatever your play.

**trytrytry** · 10-01-20, 04:48 PM

denver by 7

**Orbison** · 10-01-20, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Things are tight, I have no play here yet. I feel the forecasts live up to their numbers and that moving to 42 could be too much and I have other indicators showing that we don't get a Jets win until they play Miami. There, they will play them, get a bye, then play them again.

Miami is a lot better than the Jets and the Broncos too for that matter. but by then the Jets will have a new coach and probably most of their injured guys back so who knows

**KVB** · 10-01-20, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Orbison

Miami is a lot better than the Jets and the Broncos too for that matter. but by then the Jets will have a new coach and probably most of their injured guys back so who knows

Yes, I am not saying the Jets are better than the Dolphins, especailly right now. But those spots for the Jets look good and it can be tough to beat a team or even lose to a team, twice in a row. That bye in the middle could be key.

Just looking ahead a little tyring to anticipate some favorable spots. Things can always change between now and then. Shit, Joe Flacco could end being the starter...lol.

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 05:32 PM

Who will lead Denver in receptions tonight

**icon** · 10-01-20, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

broncos better D and QB starting first game will be fired up to make plays while darnold is wondering how his career may be getting cut real short... and jets will be wondering when their shit coach will get fired

easy play here

Glad to see someone make sense of this game. Didn't Denvers "D" play not terribly vs Tampa? Jets offense should not be that difficult compared to Brady.

**icon** · 10-01-20, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by rake922

Who will lead Denver in receptions tonight

Whoever catches the ball the most?

**Chi_archie** · 10-01-20, 05:35 PM

FANTA Claus

**BayArea888** · 10-01-20, 06:10 PM

Judge Jeudy

**gauchojake** · 10-01-20, 06:38 PM

games like this I just make up a crazy bet and play it for fun

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

games like this I just make up a crazy bet and play it for fun

Guy both teams are fighting to rebound for the playoff hunt

**KVB** · 10-01-20, 06:52 PM

I'm telling you, Joe Flacco takes over and the Jets go on a win streak.

**Hot Jerry** · 10-01-20, 06:53 PM

Ny 19 denver 13 !!

**rake922** · 10-01-20, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by Hot Jerry

Ny 19 denver 13 !!

Wow that's a really low score Jerry

**KVB** · 10-01-20, 07:58 PM

Joe Flacco!!!!

**MOBIL19** · 10-01-20, 08:13 PM

How many players will throw a pass in the game?

3.5 under over

**ThaTopMoron** · 10-01-20, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

broncos better D and QB starting first game will be fired up to make plays while darnold is wondering how his career may be getting cut real short... and jets will be wondering when their shit coach will get fired

easy play here

rypien makes a bunch of bad 4th quarter mistakes and the broncos still win

let this be a lesson, don't bet on the jets

you think they may be close to winning and they grab the qb's face mask...