Best bets for Eagles-Packers
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday's game between the 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles and 3-0 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh along with Fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup of an Eagles team trying to get on track and a Packers team looking to extend its perfect start.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sept 25.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4, 45.5)
Aaron Rodgers under 0.5 interceptions (-175)
Clay: The juice here is ugly at -175, but Rodgers simply doesn't throw interceptions. In fact, he has zero in three games this season, and in 2018, he became the first player in NFL history to attempt 450 or more passes and throw fewer than four interceptions in a season.
Meanwhile, the Eagles managed only 10 interceptions last season with essentially the same secondary, and though they have three interceptions this season, they are down their top-two corners (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills) for this game. Additionally, Green Bay is favored in this game, so the game script could help keep Rodgers' attempts in check. As is, Rodgers is attempting 31.0 passes per game in 2019, which is a career low and more than three attempts per game below his career average. Caesars gives Rodgers a 64% chance to throw zero interceptions, whereas I come in at 70%.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 3.5 receptions (-125)
Clay: Valdes-Scantling has emerged as Green Bay's clear No. 2 wide receiver this season. The second-year wideout has been on the field for 86% of the team's pass plays and is handling a hefty 25% target share. The Eagles, meanwhile, have allowed the ninth-most completions to wide receivers this season and have been especially bad against outside receivers. Of the six starting perimeter receivers they've faced so far, five have reached four catches and four have reached five. (The exception was Kenny Golladay.) Valdes-Scantling has aligned outside on 87% of his routes and has seen six-plus targets in all three games, posting catch totals of three, four and six along the way. I have Valdes-Scantling closer to 4.3 receptions this week, so the over is the place to be.
Packers team total over 24 points
Fortenbaugh: Philadelphia's defense travels to Green Bay facing the Daily Double of unfortunate circumstances: injuries combined with a short week of preparation. That's a troubling situation for a team to find itself, especially one that currently ranks 19th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and has surrendered 24 or more points in all three contests it has played this season.
On the flip side, Green Bay's new-look offense under rookie head coach Matt LaFleur has made steady improvement each time it has taken the field this September:
Week 1: 3.73 yards per play, 10 points
Week 2: 4.85 yards per play, 21 points
Week 3: 6.0 yards per play, 27 points
I'm anticipating another step in the right direction Thursday night against a suspect Philadelphia defense that already has permitted seven touchdown passes on the season.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday's game between the 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles and 3-0 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh along with Fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup of an Eagles team trying to get on track and a Packers team looking to extend its perfect start.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sept 25.
Aaron Rodgers under 0.5 interceptions (-175)
Clay: The juice here is ugly at -175, but Rodgers simply doesn't throw interceptions. In fact, he has zero in three games this season, and in 2018, he became the first player in NFL history to attempt 450 or more passes and throw fewer than four interceptions in a season.
Meanwhile, the Eagles managed only 10 interceptions last season with essentially the same secondary, and though they have three interceptions this season, they are down their top-two corners (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills) for this game. Additionally, Green Bay is favored in this game, so the game script could help keep Rodgers' attempts in check. As is, Rodgers is attempting 31.0 passes per game in 2019, which is a career low and more than three attempts per game below his career average. Caesars gives Rodgers a 64% chance to throw zero interceptions, whereas I come in at 70%.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 3.5 receptions (-125)
Clay: Valdes-Scantling has emerged as Green Bay's clear No. 2 wide receiver this season. The second-year wideout has been on the field for 86% of the team's pass plays and is handling a hefty 25% target share. The Eagles, meanwhile, have allowed the ninth-most completions to wide receivers this season and have been especially bad against outside receivers. Of the six starting perimeter receivers they've faced so far, five have reached four catches and four have reached five. (The exception was Kenny Golladay.) Valdes-Scantling has aligned outside on 87% of his routes and has seen six-plus targets in all three games, posting catch totals of three, four and six along the way. I have Valdes-Scantling closer to 4.3 receptions this week, so the over is the place to be.
Packers team total over 24 points
Fortenbaugh: Philadelphia's defense travels to Green Bay facing the Daily Double of unfortunate circumstances: injuries combined with a short week of preparation. That's a troubling situation for a team to find itself, especially one that currently ranks 19th in opponent yards per play (5.9) and has surrendered 24 or more points in all three contests it has played this season.
On the flip side, Green Bay's new-look offense under rookie head coach Matt LaFleur has made steady improvement each time it has taken the field this September:
Week 1: 3.73 yards per play, 10 points
Week 2: 4.85 yards per play, 21 points
Week 3: 6.0 yards per play, 27 points
I'm anticipating another step in the right direction Thursday night against a suspect Philadelphia defense that already has permitted seven touchdown passes on the season.
