Anyone know what the winning % would be if someone only bet dogs and/or unders? Let’s say you use the closing line of pinny as the line. Looking for the big leagues such as NFL, NBA and MLB. Thanks!
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Point spread and totals very close to 50%. Money lines less than 50%Comment -
everything always around 50%
every stat in worldComment -
Point Spread Bets in the NFLAll home 1,484 1,680 56 46.90% 1.26% -2.46 -10.28% All away 1,680 1,484 56 53.10% 1.26% 2.46 1.34% All favorite 1,488 1,617 56 47.92% 1.27% -1.64 -8.36% All underdog 1,617 1,488 56 52.08% 1.27% 1.64 -0.57% Home underdog 492 520 20 48.62% 2.22% -0.62 -7.05% Home favorite 968 1,125 36 46.25% 1.55% -2.43 -11.51% Away underdog 1,125 968 36 53.75% 1.55% 2.43 2.57% Away favorite 520 492 20 51.38% 2.22% 0.62 -1.87% Home pick 24 35 0 40.68% 9.21% -1.01 -22.34% Away pick 35 24 0 59.32% 9.21% 1.01 13.25% All 3,164 3,164 112 50.00% 0.89% 0.00 -4.47%
Under and Over Bets in the NFLOver 1,586 1,576 58 50.16% 1.26% 0.13 -4.17% Under 1,576 1,586 58 49.84% 1.26% -0.13 -4.76
Money Line Bets in the NFLUnderdog -3.91% Favorite -6.24% All -5.08%
Last SeasonComment -
Here’s how underdogs performed in each league in five separate odds ranges. Profits (or significant lack thereof) are based on $100 bets:+100 to +150 45% -$6,921.00 +151 to +200 36.3% -$5,981.00 +201 to +250 28.6% -$4,863.00 +251 to +300 23.1% -$1,767.00 +301 and more 18.9% -$694.00 +100 to +150 42.6% -$23,497 +151 to +200 36.0% $4,582 +201 to +250 29.4% -$1,727 +251 to +300 27.5% +$128 +301 and more 18.8% -$535 +100 to +150 43.6% -$1,079 +151 to +200 36.2% -$220 +201 to +250 27.8% -$1,751 +251 to +300 23.1% -$1,555 +301 and more 18.1% -$1,500 +100 to +150 43% -$7,194 +151 to +200 36.4% +$292 +201 to +250 28.3% -$5,292 +251 to +300 28.7% +3,765 +301 and more 15.7% -$10,658 +100 to +150 45.8% +$2,671 +151 to +200 35.5% -$1,519 +201 to +250 28.2% -$2,385 +251 to +300 22.3% -$2,911 +301 and more 16.1% -$7,270 +100 to +150 42.1% -$30,265 +151 to +200 32.8% -$31,336 +201 to +250 28.3% -$12,754 +251 to +300 22.2% -$22,061 +301 and more 11.6% -$17,075 +100 to +150 44.8% +$59 +151 to +200 33.8% -$2,922 +201 to +250 32.5% +$3,075 +251 to +300 23.7% -$3,051 +301 and more 10.4% +$14,415 Comment -
Go to Covers.com and go to League Trends or just type it in at Google.
Below is last years NBA against the spreads and Over/Unders. Every single one of them was within the 49/51 percentile. Books are sharp as hell these days.
AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS (ATS)
OVER VS. UNDER TRENDSCategory Record Percent Away Teams 638-655-19 49.34% Home Teams 655-638-19 50.66% Favorites 648-645-19 50.12% Dogs 645-648-19 49.88% Away Favorites 215-222-6 49.20% Away Dogs 423-433-13 49.42% Home Favorites 433-423-13 50.58% Home Dogs 222-215-6 50.80%
Category Overs Percent Unders Percent Overtime Games 66 92.96% 5 7.04% Non-Overtime Games 586 47.72% 642 52.28% All Games 652 50.19% 647 49.81% Comment -
MLB
NHL+100 to +150 45% -$6,921.00 +151 to +200 36.3% -$5,981.00 +201 to +250 28.6% -$4,863.00 +251 to +300 23.1% -$1,767.00 +301 and more 18.9% -$694.00
NFL+100 to +150 42.6% -$23,497 +151 to +200 36.0% $4,582 +201 to +250 29.4% -$1,727 +251 to +300 27.5% +$128 +301 and more 18.8% -$535
NBA+100 to +150 43.6% -$1,079 +151 to +200 36.2% -$220 +201 to +250 27.8% -$1,751 +251 to +300 23.1% -$1,555 +301 and more 18.1% -$1,500
UFC+100 to +150 43% -$7,194 +151 to +200 36.4% +$292 +201 to +250 28.3% -$5,292 +251 to +300 28.7% +3,765 +301 and more 15.7% -$10,658
NCAAB+100 to +150 45.8% +$2,671 +151 to +200 35.5% -$1,519 +201 to +250 28.2% -$2,385 +251 to +300 22.3% -$2,911 +301 and more 16.1% -$7,270
NCAAF+100 to +150 42.1% -$30,265 +151 to +200 32.8% -$31,336 +201 to +250 28.3% -$12,754 +251 to +300 22.2% -$22,061 +301 and more 11.6% -$17,075
+100 to +150 44.8% +$59 +151 to +200 33.8% -$2,922 +201 to +250 32.5% +$3,075 +251 to +300 23.7% -$3,051 +301 and more 10.4% +$14,415 Comment -
JJ, you have won the bologna again my friend. when the possibilities are one out of two the more events the greater the chance of a 50/50 outcome. now, he is one fact that some might not believe, I had this argument with a poster by the name of brooks with a number behind his screen name, one of the dumbest individuals on the planet.
you all know this, if you flip a coin and get 25 heads in a row what are the chances of heads on the next flip. you know, I know you know, he argued with me about this for about a week. the fckin idiot.Comment -
With juice factored in it’s a losing propositionComment -
I'm going to give jj the benefit of the doubt on this one and assume that he's talking about records involving point spreads. If you take away point spreads the chances aren't 50/50 on most events. If every game had -110 odds with no point spreads I would be a billionaire. Look at the straight up NBA records from last year:
NBA Basketball Trends - Season to Date
STRAIGHT UP TRENDS (WON LOSS)Category Record Percent Away Teams 537-775 40.93% Home Teams 775-537 59.07% Favorites 880-432 67.07% Dogs 432-880 32.93% Away Favorites 274-169 61.85% Away Dogs 263-606 30.26% Home Favorites 606-263 69.74% Home Dogs 169-274 38.15%
As you can see, none of them are 50/50 because the point spreads aren't included. However, if you take in consideration the points spreads as seen in post #6, they're all 50/50. This means that the books are sharp as hell and they are extremely good at setting lines. There is no favoritism being shown anywhere in any of the stats. If anyone on here can do that for 1300 NBA games in a season... well... you're much better than I am that's for sure.Comment
