French Open Semi Finals: Nadal -950 over Federer +600

**funnyb25** · 06-04-19, 02:33 PM

All in type play

**Snowball** · 06-04-19, 02:41 PM

maybe an angle on the point spreads
hard to take Fed even for one set

**slayer14** · 06-04-19, 02:44 PM

No Fed cant win this

**moojoo** · 06-04-19, 02:47 PM

Maybe handicap +2,5 sets on Federer could be the play.

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 02:50 PM

Fed’s only chance is if Nadal gets hurt. Outside of that, he has no prayer. Even in his prime he couldn’t come close to beating Nadal on clay. This Fed isn’t as good as that one but this Nadal is just as good. If Federer won a set I’d be stunned.

**Snowball** · 06-04-19, 03:15 PM

Roger only beat Nadal once on clay
2009 Madrid Masters

if he is +600 then the spreads might be a deal also

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Roger only beat Nadal once on clay
2009 Madrid Masters

if he is +600 then the spreads might be a deal also

Never in a best of 5 though. I don’t think he’s even taken Rafa to a 5th set in the French. Djoker has but don’t think Fed has. Rafa has his number at the French and Rafa hasn’t really lost a step there while Roger has. I’d be surprised if it got to 4 sets but I’m rooting for Fed.

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 03:28 PM

Conditions important too. Nadal does struggle some when the clay is wet. When it’s hard and dry, he is unbeatable. His very few lost sets and lost matches at the French have come in more wet conditions. When it’s fast, he completely dominates.

**funnyb25** · 06-04-19, 03:33 PM

Been raining

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Been raining

Not earlier today when he absolutely shredded Nishikori.

**funnyb25** · 06-04-19, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by navyblue81

Not earlier today when he absolutely shredded Nishikori.

Referring to the future conditions. Not his performance.

**2daBank** · 06-04-19, 03:45 PM

God damn, wtf even the point??

Gotta believe if a line was ever saying something as some guys like to imply w lines, this one speaking loudly. Can’t see books giving one of greatest tennis champions in history 6 to 1 if they thought he even had a chance!! Right??

**2daBank** · 06-04-19, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by navyblue81

Conditions important too. Nadal does struggle some when the clay is wet. When it’s hard and dry, he is unbeatable. His very few lost sets and lost matches at the French have come in more wet conditions. When it’s fast, he completely dominates.

Nadal strikes me as a guy that loves playing w a hard surface.

**jjgold** · 06-04-19, 03:56 PM

anyone betting Nadal at those prices JUST QUIT GAMBLING

**funnyb25** · 06-04-19, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

anyone betting Nadal at those prices JUST QUIT GAMBLING

We will make a nice 6 team parlay to even that out.

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 04:13 PM

Agree it’s not worth betting money line on Rafa.
I’d rather play the sets. Nadal has
decent shot of winning this in 3 if conditions are dry. If it’s wetter and slower, Fed could steal a set. O/u sets is 3.5.

**pabonaparte** · 06-04-19, 04:21 PM

I think Federer gets 6 at least in two sets.

**cincinnatikid513** · 06-04-19, 04:24 PM

took nadal -2.5 sets max play he's going to piss all over federer

Jun 07

NHL [8257] RAFAEL NADAL (-2.5 SETS) -110

3300.00 USD / 3000.00 USD

**Snowball** · 06-04-19, 04:42 PM

Fed has taken at least one set 4 times and failed to take a set only once vs. Nadal in FO

still means nothing because he is past prime more so than Nadal and almost 5 yrs older

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 04:49 PM

Federer has only won 3 out of 12 grand slam matches against Nadal. Even if you take the French Open out of it, Nadal still has winning record against him in grand slams. Fed just hasn’t matched up well vs Nadal and that was in his prime. It’s gonna be tough.

**funnyb25** · 06-04-19, 04:50 PM

Good info navy

**DavidGoliath5003** · 06-04-19, 04:51 PM

Fed ML or no play. Nadal hasnt been pushed at all lately. What we do know is Nadal isnt 100% and hes hiding something. Londero exposed him a little in the 3rd set the other day when he rattled off 4 straight games. Nadal hasnt been serving that great either. Also from a mental standpoint Fed has won the Last 5 meetings

**2daBank** · 06-04-19, 05:10 PM

What the over?? Feel like my square ass just wants to see a good match, don’t really think fed gonna beat him but is he really gonna get steamrolled?

**asiagambler** · 06-04-19, 05:13 PM

I would bet Federer at these odds

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

What the over?? Feel like my square ass just wants to see a good match, don’t really think fed gonna beat him but is he really gonna get steamrolled?

If Nadal is on top form and conditions are perfect for him, he could get steamrolled. But Nadal gets these nagging injuries from time to time and if the surface plays a bit slower, Fed could push him some. I hope he does. He's just not the same Federer of old. Like you, I would like to see a good match. I think Djokovic could beat him, though.

**jjgold** · 06-04-19, 05:19 PM

zero value Nadal

small Fed

**2daBank** · 06-04-19, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by navyblue81

If Nadal is on top form and conditions are perfect for him, he could get steamrolled. But Nadal gets these nagging injuries from time to time and if the surface plays a bit slower, Fed could push him some. I hope he does. He's just not the same Federer of old. Like you, I would like to see a good match. I think Djokovic could beat him, though.

I almost always roll w joker over both of them, even before he started beating them! Lol. Not often in the French tho, this rafa surface for sure.

**pavyracer** · 06-04-19, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

zero value Nadal

small Fed

Are you going to bet $9.50 to win $1? Is that what small means?

**navyblue81** · 06-04-19, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I almost always roll w joker over both of them, even before he started beating them! Lol. Not often in the French tho, this rafa surface for sure.

Agree. I actually think Djokovic has the best shot of passing Federer's 20. He'll probably win Wimbledon and US Open and has a few years left in him.

**SamsNCharge99** · 06-04-19, 05:44 PM

Federer under 14.5 games won???

if you assume nadal wins 3-0 say it goes 7-6 6-3 6-4. Thats 13 there

**unlearn** · 06-04-19, 10:10 PM

Rafa in 3 is the play

**pavyracer** · 06-04-19, 10:16 PM

Federer wins 3-2. Nadal hasn't played anyone yet.

**eaglesfan371** · 06-04-19, 10:26 PM

With them having played so many times and a lot of recent data, one could extrapolate the % probability of Federer winning a set easily...

Look up tennisabstract for each player's data against once another...

I would also imagine this match probably has the sharpest lines...

Why force a play? Better plays to be had...Throw $20 on a side for giggles, forget about the math/modeling for a moment and just enjoy two greats facing off.

Anyone who bets tennis regularly...look up tennisabstract, it is probably the most beautiful tool readily available for tennis cappers...however build your own model. It is very difficult for tennis though admittedly. Assigning weights for ranking is important.

**thomorino** · 06-04-19, 10:28 PM

The books have likely been getting destroyed by people betting Nadal every round, he's covered or pushed every round, and this line looks inflated but Federer hasn't really played anyone since he got Wawrinka after he had played a 5 set match in tough conditions.