F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Sun 28th Apr

[reigle9]

i was all about abortion when i used to have sex, now i dont really care

cops should have a higher standard to become cops, but what a weird sticking point

2 minor issues in an overall police state cuck country, i'd rather be dead

[Optional]

i was all about abortion when i used to have sex, now i dont really care

cops should have a higher standard to become cops, but what a weird sticking point

2 minor issues in an overall police state cuck country, i'd rather be dead

We really agree on most things.

And you'd love to live here. For a year or two at least.

All the rules would drive you crazy after that long as a Yank.

[Optional]

Did you know Aussies called you Septics?

Rhyming slang for Yank/Septic Tank.

[reigle9]

l live life by no rules, so yeah

just dont rape or murder, that about covers it

sun just came out, might fly down a back road...who gives a shit

[reigle9]

no, but sounds appropriately corny

[reigle9]

my car's a pos tho, i hate having an old man car...buy me a fancy car

[eaglesfan371]

Optional how hard is it to get a work VlSA? In the EU it’s nearly impossible without PhD or being a leader in a company. Been wanting to move to another country. Would it be impossible to get hired as an American?

[Optional]

my car's a pos tho, i hate having an old man car...buy me a fancy car

Weren't you going to buy an M3 last year???


I'm seriously thinking of buying this for my next USA trip

https://sydney.craigslist.org/cto/d/1975-l48-stingray-corvette/6861877827.html

Looking for someone in Cali who will let me use their address for the title.

Thinking Diggity or FunnyB will do it.

[Optional]

Optional how hard is it to get a work VlSA? In the EU it’s nearly impossible without PhD or being a leader in a company. Been wanting to move to another country. Would it be impossible to get hired as an American?

Nah we have sort of trade agreement with USA that gives you priority. Think you jst need an employer sponsor for any old job.

There is also a program for foreign skilled specialists called a 451 v1sa, but its only if you are willing to work for less than the standard wage for the industry. And its an industry without enough Aussie workers.

Or if you are under 35, you can come as long as you want if you work in a rural area for 3 months out of every year. Basically fruit picking and farm laboring for min wage. About $17/hr.

[reigle9]

m3 was my dream car when i was a brokkedikk, then once i could afford one i couldnt find one nice enough so just bought a sportscar to score eagles' mom

im going to buy an m4,6, whatever the penetrate it is here asap

[reigle9]

Weren't you going to buy an M3 last year???


I'm seriously thinking of buying this for my next USA trip

https://sydney.craigslist.org/cto/d/1975-l48-stingray-corvette/6861877827.html

Looking for someone in Cali who will let me use their address for the title.

Thinking Diggity or FunnyB will do it.

OH FUKK, THAT IS YOU

DO IT

if you're gonna corvette, you gotta stingray it

[Optional]

OH FUKK, THAT IS YOU

DO IT

if you're gonna corvette, you gotta stingray it

It's definitely me. I love it.

Do you want to go halves?

I'll drive it across the country and you can hold on to it for my next trip.

[reigle9]

lol ok? idc

if i'm "holding" a car though, i'd like the 0-60 to be under 5 seconds

theyre sweet looking, but have like 180hp or something really gay

[Optional]

lol ok? idc

if i'm "holding" a car though, i'd like the 0-60 to be under 5 seconds

theyre sweet looking, but have like 180hp or something really gay

I'd probably never come back for it. It would be yours.

It's so Burt Reynolds you'd have to grow a moustache to keep it though.


Here's another option. It's in Vancouver. Would go down west coast, Vegas, AZ, HOuston, Dega, Chralotte, Philly, AC, NYC, Toronto, Montreal. So you'd have to come to Canuckville with me to drive it home.

https://vancouver.craigslist.org/pml/cto/d/abbotsford-1994-chevrolet-astro-van/6839240280.html

1908s CIA surveillance van.

[reigle9]

me growing a straight mustache would be brett moffit at best

just ridiculous

id need to insta-quit my job and join the porn industry

[reigle9]

i'm not allowed to leave the state, esp in that lol

[reigle9]

carl edwards took my boys damn girl

[ChuckyTheGoat]

16% house edge there

Wish there was better liquidity in racing

Know you’re running rough this year, hope you get a solid W here

Eagle, I thought the same thing. Win pools are tough. Any liquid betting mkt should offer Yes/No bets w/ reasonable juice.

I can attest to Opti + 5mike being the top Racing minds here at SBR. Opti is very knowledgable on the racing front. His info should not be taken for granted.

[reigle9]

i see sherri forgot who jack daniels is today, she cant even bait of hook

[Optional]

Early odds are;

Hamilton +175
Vettel +225
Botass +325
Leclerc +325
Verstappen +2000
Gasley +10000



This race seems to come up with surprises every year. Weird twisty inner city Baku street track.

If Verstappen and Gasley are similar odds for fastest lap when that market comes out, I am going to take that.

Leaning Leclerc as race winner. He was special here on debut last year in the Sauber, picking up a top 6. Probably a race that helped seal the Ferrari drive for him.

Well that was a nice dream hoping Verstappen and Gasley might be near 20/1 or 100/1 for fastest lap. +450 and +600

Kimi only 66/1 for fastest lap too. But will still take that if I can't find better before Friday practice.

Stroll the only other one in fastest lap market I think is worth taking before practice at 150/1. But should be able to get better than that on him somewhere.

Also think the -118 (1.85) on Leclerc for Top 3, and +100 (2.00) for Stroll to finish top 10 are good value right now.


These aren't best odds but pretty indicative of what is out there so far. (Stars group)

[semibluff]

Ohhh nice when you consider multiple books!

Congrats and good to hear! Had not seen many sports posts by you so figured wasn’t going too well. Just finished turning $800 into a whole bitcoin today myself after 2 weeks, cash out time.

When I put those F1 odds into the futures house edge calculator, it spit out 16%.

116% is historically where F1 betting has been for the years where there have been a big 6. It's slightly lower this year because Gasly isn't really a threat so it's a 5 outcome event. That high % isn't an absolute killer but it's hard to find sub 100% value and it's why I make very few bets on the main markets. Fastest lap is an even higher %. The value is on the smaller markets where books are literally forced by circumstances to work to tight margins. There can also be value for Europeans where 'lazy/outdated' books stick to traditional prices rather than adopting decimals.

[semibluff]

This race has been subject to some highly unusual incidents in the past. Whilst books haven't factored that into their outright win prices they seem to have been overly sensitive about other markets such at top 3 and top 6 finishers. Hamilton had a settings issue that slowed him and a year later he had an issue his his cockpit seat requiring an additional stop, Vettel deliberately drove into the side of Hamilton, Bottas had a last lap puncture due to debris, and the 2 Red Bulls crashed each other out of a race. None of that seems track specific or likely to repeat itself. I don't see any good reason why the next 5 drivers outside of the big 6 are a combined 18% for a podium finish when they're normally a combined 11%. There is nothing from Bahrain that suggests they are close on pace. I also don't see why Verstappen is a shorter price for a podium here than he was pre-race in Bahrain. In Bahrain he was a shorter price for the race win and bad Ferrari strategy doesn't hide Verstappen being likely the 5th place finisher. Shortening those drivers' odds has pushed out Leclerc to -110. I think -135 is closer to the true price but being that far off makes me a bit cautious. I'm not normally 5% out, (57.5% to 52.5% chance). Anyway...

My pick is Leclerc at -110 for a top 3 finish. Good luck to anyone who tails.

later edit: said Bahrain, meant China.

[semibluff]

What a mess in Baku! A manhole cover wasn't secured and it ripped the bottom and diffuser off the Williams when Russell drove over it. Then the low-loader truck that has the crane on it loads Russell's car onto it but drives under a low bridge on the way back to the pit and hits it. The bridge is now damaged and the hydraulic fluid in the crane leaks out into Russell's car. When it gets back to the pit it can't get the Williams off the low-loader. That bit didn't much matter as the P1 session was abandoned more than an hour early. Most cars didn't even get out on track. Ferrari got a few laps in as they were experimenting with a new larger rear wing. P1 won't be rescheduled. P2 is scheduled to start in just over 3 hours. It should take place as normal but who knows.

[Optional]

TV heads saying the Ferrari appears to be running a bigger rear wing than the other contenders.

slow them in straights but improve in twisty and braking sections.

[Poisec]

Leclerc looking good indeed

[5mike5]

Opti is the F1 yoda

FLs have paid of handsomely as usual too

[Optional]

Gasly in the red bull was penalized and will start the race from the rear.

Opens up the top 6 betting a bit.


Can't really tell much from just the speed charts for the two shortened sessions. But can't ask for much more than to see LeClerc top of both I guess.

[Optional]

TO QUALIFY IN POLE - DRIVER (QUALIFYING)

C.Leclerc (Ferrari) 1.50
S.Vettel (Ferrari) 3.75
L.Hamilton (Mercedes) 5.50
V.Bottas (Mercedes) 15.00
M.Verstappen (Red Bull) 34.00
P.Gasly (Red Bull) 401



Wow. 4th race in a top car and he is -200 for pole in a 1 lap contest v these guys.

Fangio. Senna. Schumacher level stuff.


That said, have to take Vettel +275 at those odds in the same car.

[semibluff]

Mercedes didn't run a qualifying simulation in P3 so their time isn't representative. That said the car looked awkward in the corners with multiple bail-outs down the escape roads. Ferrari were doing something else. Ferrari looked good but it would be comparing long jump to high jump. Toro Rosso look to have the 4th fastest car. Backing Albon head-to-head against anyone outside of the top 5 is probably a sound strategy. Historically it hasn't been a good track for Hulkenberg or Grosjean - avoid them again. Ricciardo and Perez are normally very good here and should be favourites to beat their teammates.

Race strategy should be to qualify on medium tyres and go 40 laps on them then switch to soft to finish the race on a 1 stop strategy. To do that the big 5 will have to be in tyre savings mode for most of the race. The top 5 will be more likely to get fastest lap here than they would be at most tracks because they'll have new fast tyres at a very late point in the race. Don't expect to see the car cars pulling out big leads early. If they do they may well be on sub-optimal strategies. I don't see cars outside the top 5 being able to qualify top 10 on medium tyres. Fast tyres don't handle full fuel loads well so expect to see everyone else adopting a 2 stop strategy in the race as going fast - medium might be slower than a fast - medium - fast strategy, especially in there's a safety car after the opening laps. Q2 isn't a be-all and end-all. It might not be a bad thing for Renault to qualify 11 & 12 and start on mediums.

I don't like betting fastest lap but Ferrari or Toro Rosso should be strong for that. (Kvyat might struggle to get into the top 10 though).

[Optional]

I hadn't really considered Torro Rosso for fastest lap but you may be right.

I do expect the race leader to slam in the fastest lap on 2nd last or last lap of the race as the most likely scenario. but as Gasley showed if there is a 30 second gap in the top 10 anywhere, someone in else could very well go for it on new tyres.

Still liking the strategy of taking longshots I think will finish top 10.

Kimi and Stroll odds for fast lap have halved now. Top 4 are all still abut the same.

[unlearn]

LeClerc +350 (Bovada)

[Optional]

[5mike5]

Top 3 here -110 tailing Opti

[unlearn]

Will likely play Vettel as well after qualifying assuming Ferrari lock out the front row

[semibluff]

I hadn't really considered Torro Rosso for fastest lap but you may be right.

I do expect the race leader to slam in the fastest lap on 2nd last or last lap of the race as the most likely scenario. but as Gasley showed if there is a 30 second gap in the top 10 anywhere, someone in else could very well go for it on new tyres.

Still liking the strategy of taking longshots I think will finish top 10.

Kimi and Stroll odds for fast lap have halved now. Top 4 are all still abut the same.

The problem with Räikkönen and Stroll is they will struggle to be top 10. Going for fastest lap will probably require the driver to make a sub-optimal stop or be in the top 6 with a massive time gap. Stroll has struggled in practice and is very unlikely to make Q3 so he should start on mediums and be a best strategy 1-stop. If he goes for 2 stops he's unlikely to be in the top 10.

Fastest lap is not a market I have a good handle on.