MLB - [906] TOTAL u6.5 +100 (New York Mets vrs Washington Nationals)
( J deGrom - R / M Scherzer - R )
( J deGrom - R / M Scherzer - R )
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Finally!!! Somebody down for some bases tomorrow!!! Hopefully it is 6-0 Nationals.Comment -
Going back to pro this year. I can feel it like a mid 90's alternative song.Comment -
Good luck this season!Comment -
Day game, like the overComment -
Not calling anyone a moron, just curios about his reasoning.
Gl to you this season.Comment -
Day, Night, Over, Under…let’s dig a little deeper.
Going back years we all know a total can be busted by the bullpen so to mitigate that noise let’s try to just talk UNDERS. For the most part, we can at least surely give the starter some credit for the UNDER, even if there is a chance he deserves little.
Playoffs can be a different animal so let’s stick with regular season.
Overall, it can be said, at least over the last dozen years or so that UNDERS are more likely to come during early games and as the time start gets later we start to see OVERs bring it more even. That’s over 30,000 games and while overall there were more UNDERs than OVERs, the percentage remains close.
But let’s get more specific. Here’s what I have…
DeGrom is 68-64-7, just less than even if you bet the same unit on the UNDER.
The daytime performance improves it to 26-19-2 netting better than +5.5 units while night shows 42-45-5 for a loss of about -6 units.
More specifically, deGrom is on the road, where he is 31-34-5, for a loss of nearly 5 units betting the same unit on the UNDER.
Again, daytime improves this to 13-8-2 for a gain of about +4.5 units while the road night games are 18-26-3, down about -9.5 units for UNDER bettors.
Scherzer has been around longer and is 163-149-17, just over +6 units betting the same unit on that UNDER.
Likewise, the daytime performance improves the UNDER bet to 67-43-6 netting upwards of +20 units while he is 96-106-11, down nearly 14 units, at night.
At home, he is 79-73-8 for a small profit betting that same unit on the UNDER.
Once again, daytime improves this to 37-26-2 for a nearly +9 unit gain while the nighttime UNDER record is 42-47-6, down nearly -7.5 units betting the same unit each time.
These two have met twice in the regular season, both in 2017.
April 28th they scored 12 runs, the line was 7.5 and Scherzer was home.
Sept 24th, they scored 5 runs, the line was 6 and deGrom was home.
The OVER was at night and the UNDER result was, you guessed it, an early game.
Good Luck.
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Well put, good luck as well.Day, Night, Over, Under…let’s dig a little deeper.
Going back years we all know a total can be busted by the bullpen so to mitigate that noise let’s try to just talk UNDERS. For the most part, we can at least surely give the starter some credit for the UNDER, even if there is a chance he deserves little.
Playoffs can be a different animal so let’s stick with regular season.
Overall, it can be said, at least over the last dozen years or so that UNDERS are more likely to come during early games and as the time start gets later we start to see OVERs bring it more even. That’s over 30,000 games and while overall there were more UNDERs than OVERs, the percentage remains close.
But let’s get more specific. Here’s what I have…
DeGrom is 68-64-7, just less than even if you bet the same unit on the UNDER.
The daytime performance improves it to 26-19-2 netting better than +5.5 units while night shows 42-45-5 for a loss of about -6 units.
More specifically, deGrom is on the road, where he is 31-34-5, for a loss of nearly 5 units betting the same unit on the UNDER.
Again, daytime improves this to 13-8-2 for a gain of about +4.5 units while the road night games are 18-26-3, down about -9.5 units for UNDER bettors.
Scherzer has been around longer and is 163-149-17, just over +6 units betting the same unit on that UNDER.
Likewise, the daytime performance improves the UNDER bet to 67-43-6 netting upwards of +20 units while he is 96-106-11, down nearly 14 units, at night.
At home, he is 79-73-8 for a small profit betting that same unit on the UNDER.
Once again, daytime improves this to 37-26-2 for a nearly +9 unit gain while the nighttime UNDER record is 42-47-6, down nearly -7.5 units betting the same unit each time.
These two have met twice in the regular season, both in 2017.
April 28th they scored 12 runs, the line was 7.5 and Scherzer was home.
Sept 24th, they scored 5 runs, the line was 6 and deGrom was home.
The OVER was at night and the UNDER result was, you guessed it, an early game.
Good Luck.
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Mr Pick, I really hope you win. It gives one immense satisfaction to be vindicated after utilizing such primative defense mechanisms. Winning will serve reinforce this inherent quality . I love nerding out about this stuff, others, as you can see by KVB's post, are capable of advanced intellectual discourse which is +EV quality.Last edited by trobin31; 03-28-19, 10:10 AM.Comment -
Can't imagine 2 cy young award winners in the prime of their careers wouln t have better numbers during the day. Most pitchers will, especially ones with good conditioning like degrom and scherzer. It's harder for hitters to pick up the ball during the day, AND, get away games tend to occur during daylight. With that said, last few years I've been +EV adding 0.5 runs to day games at this ballpark at +odds. Have lived here past 11years, it's just something I've noted anectodally and started betting it. I'm not jumping up and down yelling this game is definitely going over, throw in The fact its opening day and crowd variables occur you just can't account for as well as the likelihood the bullpen gets utilized much earlier than usual. I wouldn't be surprised if the game ended 1-0, but I'm betting it ends 4-3.Comment -
Troy Tulowitzki Under 0.5 Total Bases +157
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