Math in gambling

[wolly]

How much math do you need to apply in gambling(poker,sports betttings,etc)? I only learned about permutations and combinations and I have no idea if you use calculus(including integrals,limits and differentiation). I once read a book about some formulas but I could never understand their significance.(there were some weird limits and unfortunately nothing made a lot of sense to me)

[jjgold]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

[wolly]

its 100% math
best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL
only losers look at that stuff

Well,what math? Gymnasium math,Highschool math,College math?

[SlickFazzer]

trust your models and instincts.

[bettingman6]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

You can't ignore injuries in betting. That's a really stupid idea.


What you can do is try to figure out if the injured player was overrated or underrated. If he was overrated, then it might be a good idea to bet for his team, because the line was probably adjusted too much for his injury. (In fact, if he was a bad player his injury might actually help the team.) If he was underrated, then it might be good idea to bet against his team, because the line probably wasn't adjusted enough.

[Matt17]

its 100% math

This.

[jjgold]

advanced math

[Cuse0323]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

[Darkside Magick]

If you not using bayes theorem.. You not going to win long term PERIOD

[Matt17]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

I have fun when I win bud.

[Chi_archie]

need an Abacus for sure

[wolly]

If you not using bayes theorem.. You not going to win long term PERIOD

That theorem looks like probability. What happened to limits,functions,differentiation,integra ls,etc? Don't you use them?

[Darkside Magick]

That theorem looks like probability. What happened to limits,functions,differentiation,integra ls,etc? Don't you use them?

It is conditional probability...major math bettors use to win... Some take it a step further and use (QBism) Quantum bayesianism

[Carborundum]

there are three basic types of sports gamblers:

1) people who bet numbers. they sit around comparing lines at different sports books and bet on lines they think have the most value in comparison to other sports book lines. this requires basic level math skills and some higher level math when you start determining value on parlays, teasers, etc. these types of gamblers are usually math nerds. this is the easiest way to win but also the most boring.

2) people that make their own numbers through a computer model. this requires higher level math skills along with programming skills. these are the most likely to bet professionally.

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person.

[CappinTerp]

There is only one thing,one needs to know....PRICE,PRICE and Price.

[SharpAngles]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

[Matt17]

there are three basic types of sports gamblers:

1) people who bet numbers. they sit around comparing lines at different sports books and bet on lines they think have the most value in comparison to other sports book lines. this requires basic level math skills and some higher level math when you start determining value on parlays, teasers, etc. these types of gamblers are usually math nerds. this is the easiest way to win but also the most boring.

2) people that make their own numbers through a computer model. this requires higher level math skills along with programming skills. these are the most likely to bet professionally.

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person.

Two

[Matt17]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

[Cuse0323]

I have fun when I win bud.

Not as much as I do losing.

[danshan11]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

interesting methodology
can you give a real life example

[bettingman6]

Math nerds are the guys who win, but don’t have as much fun. But they have the money so they are victorious over degenerates like me.

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

[Cuse0323]

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

You’re right. They lose like the rest of us. Just have a slightly better chance of winning.

[danshan11]

I think a vast majority of math nerds are losers in sports betting. Look at all the people on here who have their own complex systems but still only hit 50%.

I’d say that about 10% of math nerds win long term at sports betting, and about 1% of people who aren’t math nerds win long term.

those numbers are crazy high,
advanced bettors (modelers, math nerds, I say 1% of total advanced bettors win long term
non-math nerds non-modelers win about .1% win long term

most people count a long term winner as someone who wins over like 1000 games and that is super super low to call someone skilled.
1000 records leave tons of space for survivorship bias.

[jjgold]

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person



stupidest thing I ever read

[Cuse0323]

3) people that bet based on their overall knowledge of a sport. these people are generally win because they are clever so math is not particularly important. this is the hardest way to win but the most realistic for the average person



stupidest thing I ever read

I was hoping he was being sarcastic. I’m number 3, but we don’t generally win. I probably actually pick more winners than losers barely, but I’m an allin bettor so doesn’t mean jack.

[wolly]

Math is extremely overrated in gambling. Every advanced mathematics degree in the world will not help if you can’t recognize situational spots the oddsmakers use to set the lines.

So,all these mathematics formulas are totally useless in betting(poker and blackjack included)? I remember that there were winners by these formulas in poker or blackjack(when there were some MIT students)

[jjgold]

All math now I know how many squares are here

[wolly]

No offense but I looked at every mathematical theory and none of them helped me to understand how gambling works. You've only showed me one example of probability. Are there other examples which involves combination,permutations,functions,etc?

[flipacoin9698]

its 100% math

best cappers no nothing about players, teams and injuries, STATS IN GENERAL

only losers look at that stuff

Smartest thing I have heard today.

[Biff41]

A lot of the math is already done for you. The odds.

[wolly]

Thanks for all the answers but I specified what I wanted!The theory which you use in math and not how you win with the math!
How is bayes theorem going to help someone who bets if it's only about probability?

[Cuse0323]

I would have paid more attention in school if I knew being better at math would have helped me gambling. I’m good with just straight numbers. Multiplication, division. Probability, theories, and letters in math not so much. In conclusion, I have no help for you. I was better in English.

[Inkwell77]

The thing that matters is specializing in something. And you have to be able to create a number

[JIBBBY]

Then this happens




Skip the math strategies, look for the best value on lines with the books and cap your assss off daily, look for information and streaks!! Stay consistent with your bet sizing and they you can grind out rent money in the end month after month..

My take..

[jjgold]

I love when guys analyze stats and players funny stuff