My Pick Thread, Let's See If I Am A Fader!

[rclang64]

3-9-19

CBB:

Temple -1
Saint Louis +3
Boston College +3.5
UNC -3.5
Sam Houston State -4

NBA:

Wizards +7
Hawks +4
Bucks -12
Suns +12.5

[rclang64]

3-9-19

CBB:

Temple -1 (W)
Saint Louis +3 (L)
Boston College +3.5 (L)
UNC -3.5 (W)
Sam Houston State -4 (W)

NBA:

Wizards +7 (W)
Hawks +4 (W)
Bucks -12 (W)
Suns +12.5 (W)

CBB Total: 28-20-1

NBA Total: 7-9

All Sports Total: 35-29-1

[rclang64]

3-10-19

CBB:

Wofford -6
Nebraska PK
Iona -2
IPFW +1

NBA:

76ers -6.5
Hawks -1.5
Minnesota -7.5
Raptors +1.5

(Edited: listed Wofford twice)

[rclang64]

I really wish I had the huevos to bet on my picks, cause every time I do, I freakin lose them...

[flipacoin9698]

I really wish I had the huevos to bet on my picks, cause every time I do, I freakin lose them...

That is easy... I assume you have an online book. Bet $5 a game or whatever unit size is no sweat whatsoever. It could be $2 per game. Allow your bankroll to grow organically, you will never lose sleep and more importantly you will never get hurt. If you have the long term ability to pick winners it will snowball in time. One every important part of this is NEVER rate your picks and actually wager the ones you feel strongest about... that will kill anybody over time. Every pick gets played an equal unit size.

[danshan11]

I really wish I had the huevos to bet on my picks, cause every time I do, I freakin lose them...

did you read that book? if you read that book and understand how +EV works you wont need nuts, you will have knowledge that your picks are profitable or not.

[Raywinner]

rclang64, follow my thread and you will stay above water if you only bet 1 to 3% of your total purse. You follow me and try it out.

[Raywinner]

Hey flipacoin9698, I agree on eveything you said but one thing. You said NEVER rate your picks and then you went on to say wager the ones you feel strongest about. My question is? How do you know which ones are stronger if you don't have some kind of rating system to rate higher value betting teams. I been rating my picks from strongest to least for a LONG time now and been staying above water, don't get me wrong because I'm not getting rich but staying comfortable above water. Maybe I misunderstood you on this issue but I been RATINGS the teams I want to bet on for years.

[danshan11]

if rating your picks means using kelly based on expected edge, I think that is funny for 99.99% of bettors.

GAME A
line -7 you got -2 that is a 5 pt swing
GAME B
line -7 you got -4.5 that is a 2.5 pt swing

I think B is the better pick as it is closer in line with the actual number
obviously, something is wrong with what you did in your estimate in GAME A

[danshan11]

rclang64, follow my thread and you will stay above water if you only bet 1 to 3% of your total purse. You follow me and try it out.

this sounds like touting to me, that is why I backed a way from the everyone's best bet, it started to get touty

[rclang64]

That is easy... I assume you have an online book. Bet $5 a game or whatever unit size is no sweat whatsoever. It could be $2 per game. Allow your bankroll to grow organically, you will never lose sleep and more importantly you will never get hurt. If you have the long term ability to pick winners it will snowball in time. One every important part of this is NEVER rate your picks and actually wager the ones you feel strongest about... that will kill anybody over time. Every pick gets played an equal unit size.

I took your advice, and it has been going well. I should have been posting my pics in here prior, but I can easily screenshot my bovada. Here is one of my parleys today I have only been putting $2 per game on top of the parley.

[rclang64]

I figure I’ll just post a screen of my picks, and since tickets aren’t allowed after, this should suffice before, lol. I played each play individually and just did a small parley, soooo, each one in the parley is just my individual pick. I really should keep a score in the thread, and I likely will when I get some more time.

[rclang64]

Wow, middle finger to the clippers for screwing up my parlay by 4 damn points...